Michigan looked to be a swing state for a while, and the lack of an economic crisis could've sent it to McCain. I just flipped a coin on Oregon and New Jersey.
And to talk about Oregon again, I believe that in this scenario that Oregon would have been closer, but it would probably have gone to Obama still. Obama has always been safe in that state throughout the fall campaign, even without the financial crisis. I would still question New Jersey, but I think that it would have gone to Obama as well. New Jersey is more democratic than Pennsylvania, results show this, and it is just the way that it is according to past results and the 2008 results. So, I can see McCain winning Pennsylvania in this scenario, but not New Jersey or Oregon. Both Oregon and New Jersey would have been close, but would have stayed with Obama in my opinion.
I think you're right on Oregon, gporter. This is a state which has always been a temptation for Republicans, but hasn't voted for the party at the Presidential level since 1984. The closeness of the race in 2000 and 2004 was a virtual chimera, with a huge defection to Nader that masked the Democratic lean to the state at the national level.
The state has been heavily polarized between urban and more rural areas (upstate vs downstate) for decades, a trend that was only exacerbated by controversy over logging issues in the early '90s. The key reason for recent Democratic dominance is that the wealthier Portland suburbs have been moving increasingly Democratic, and in 2008 winning by almost landslide margins.
My precinct research is showing that Obama won the suburban part of Clackamas county (68% of county) by 58-40 (including an impressive almost 2-1 win in wealthy Lake Oswego) and 61-37 in the suburban regions of Washington County (92% of county).
Although McCain would most likely have won Clackamas in the event of a 7 point national win, he would still have lost Washington County. Even assuming a 7 point swing in key regions of "downstate Oregon" (Deschutes, Jackson, and Marion) this would not have been the case in the liberal strongholds of Multnomah, Lane, Benton, and Lincoln counties).
Without at least almost 50-50 split of the Portland suburbs it is virtually impossible for a Republican to carry the state these days when 55% of the total vote comes from Portland Metro.
