pragmatic liberal
Jr. Member
Posts: 520
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« on: December 13, 2008, 07:03:10 PM » |
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Honestly, I think a woman will be on at least the Democratic ticket in 2016, either as the presidential nominee or vice presidential nominee.
There are going to be 16-18 women in the U.S. Senate next year (depending on replacements for Hillary Clinton and Obama). There were 13 at the start of Bush's term and 6 at the start of Clinton's term. By 2016, there will probably be 4-5 more women in the U.S. Senate. There will probably also be at least a handful more women governors.
And if the woman in question is the running mate, the pool expands a bit more to possibly include members of Congress or cabinet members.
I think the pressure, particularly for the Democrats, will be VERY strong in '16 to place a woman on the ticket, given Hillary's near-miss this year and Sarah Palin's VP candidacy. There's a sense that it will be a woman's "turn."
Clinton's a possibility, although I wouldn't bet on it; she probably serves out this term as Obama's Secretary of State, then retires or takes another cabinet post like Defense if he wins reelection. Then she probably joins a think-tank or non-profit but leaves elective office.
I think Lisa Madigan -- current IL AG -- is a possibility if she becomes IL Governor in two years and if she has a successful term. If Kirsten Gilibrand replaces Hillary Clinton, she also has a very good shot.
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