Minnesota with Atlasia party system (sort of)

[they don't love you like i love you]

When I finish my homework I'll start work on this and might have it done by tommorow since I have no class. I got the idea from Al's thread about British constituenties and to pick one similar to our state Senate district. Basically, I'll list how each Minnesota' state Senate and House district would vote under an Atlasian system if we had the same voting system (otherwise all the vote splitting would make it impossible to know). It does make sense considering one of our parties is based off an actual Minnesota one.

But I'll deal only with these parties: Farmer-Labor, Independent Liberals, Atlasia Conservative Alliance (Minnesota Conservative Alliance here), Constitutional Union, Freedom. All the other parties are basically defunct, too small, too new for me to know much about, or tough to place outside the context of the forum. Stay tuned.

[they don't love you like i love you]

OK, here's the House. The color designates what party currently holds this seat, using the dave scheme, red for DFL, blue for Republicans. A map of the districts can be found here: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20041102/LegDistMap.asp
1A – Freedom
1B – Farmer Labor
2A – Farmer Labor
2B – Farmer Labor
3A – Farmer Labor
3B – Farmer Labor
4A – Freedom
4B – Freedom
5A – Farmer Labor
5B – Farmer Labor
6A – Farmer Labor
6B – Farmer Labor
7A – Farmer Labor
7B – Farmer Labor
8A – Freedom
8B – Freedom
9A – MCA
9B – Freedom
10A – MCA
10B – MCA
11A – Freedom
11B – Freedom
12A – Freedom
12B – Freedom
13A – MCA
13B – Farmer Labor
14A – Constitutional Union
14B – Freedom
15A – Constitutional Union
15B – Farmer Labor
16A – Freedom
16B – MCA
17A – MCA
17B – MCA
18A – MCA
18B – Freedom
19A – MCA
19B – MCA
20A – Farmer Labor
20B – Freedom
21A – Freedom
21B – MCA
22A – MCA
22B – Freedom
23A – Freedom
23B – Farmer Labor
24A – Freedom
24B – MCA
25A – Freedom
25B – Farmer Labor
26A – MCA
26B – Freedom
27A – Farmer Labor
27B – Farmer Labor
28A – Constitutional Union
28B – Freedom
29A – MCA
29B – Constitutional Union
30A – Independent Liberal
30B – Farmer Labor
31A – Independent Liberal
31B – Freedom
32A – MCA
32B – MCA
33A – MCA
33B – MCA
34A – MCA
34B – MCA
35A – Constitutional Union
35B – MCA
36A – MCA
36B – MCA
37A – Constitutional Union
37B – Constitutional Union
38A – Constitutional Union
38B – Constitutional Union
39A – Farmer Labor
39B – Independent Liberal
40A – Constitutional Union
40B – Constitutional Union
41A – Constitutional Union
41B – Constitutional Union
42A – Independent Liberal
42B – Constitutional Union
43A – Constitutional Union
43B – Constitutional Union
44A – Independent Liberal
44B – Independent Liberal
45A – Independent Liberal
45B – Independent Liberal
46A – Independent Liberal
46B – Farmer Labor
47A – Constitutional Union
47B – Constitutional Union
48A – Constitutional Union
48B – Constitutional Union
49A – Constitutional Union
49B – Constitutional Union
50A – Independent Liberal
50B – Independent Liberal
51A – Constitutional Union
51B – Independent Liberal
52A – MCA
52B – Constitutional Union
53A – Constitutional Union
53B – Constitutional Union
54A – Independent Liberal
54B – Independent Liberal
55A – Farmer Labor
55B – Independent Liberal
56A – Constitutional Union
56B – Constitutional Union
57A – Constitutional Union
57B – Constitutional Union
58A – Farmer Labor
58B – Farmer Labor
59A – Farmer Labor
59B – Farmer Labor
60A – Farmer Labor
60B – Independent Liberal
61A – Farmer Labor
61B – Farmer Labor
62A – Independent Liberal
62B – Independent Liberal
63A – Independent Liberal
63B – Independent Liberal
64A – Farmer Labor
64B – Farmer Labor
65A – Farmer Labor
65B – Farmer Labor
66A – Farmer Labor
66B – Farmer Labor
67A – Farmer Labor
67B – Farmer Labor

Farmer Labor – 37
Freedom – 22
MCA – 25
Constitutional Union – 30
Independent Liberal –20

[Colin]

This is very interesting I hope more people do this with other states.

[WMS]

Very interesting. Any clues as to your criteria for determining this? It seems like the Freedom Party does very well in the countryside...

[Colin]

Very interesting. Any clues as to your criteria for determining this? It seems like the Freedom Party does very well in the countryside...

Probably alot of Midwestern populists up in Minnesota. I expect that the Freedom Party would do very well in most Midwestern states.

[Blerpiez]

Excellent.  I could try to do this for Massahusetts as well.

[WMS]

Very interesting. Any clues as to your criteria for determining this? It seems like the Freedom Party does very well in the countryside...

Probably alot of Midwestern populists up in Minnesota. I expect that the Freedom Party would do very well in most Midwestern states.

True. We'd probably do well in NM as well, but I admit I don't quite have enough data on all the State Senate and State House districts to determine the setup...although the Constitutional Unionists and Independent Liberals would do worse than in Minnesota and the Freedoms and Farmer Laborers would do better...

[Colin]

Very interesting. Any clues as to your criteria for determining this? It seems like the Freedom Party does very well in the countryside...

Probably alot of Midwestern populists up in Minnesota. I expect that the Freedom Party would do very well in most Midwestern states.

True. We'd probably do well in NM as well, but I admit I don't quite have enough data on all the State Senate and State House districts to determine the setup...although the Constitutional Unionists and Independent Liberals would do worse than in Minnesota and the Freedoms and Farmer Laborers would do better...

Where's Al when you need him.

[bgwah]

I would see Washington as being:

18 Freedom
16 Independent Liberal
8 Conservative/ACA/whatever theyre called
3 Constitutional Union
3 Farmer Labor

I made a map but don't feel like uploading it. Basically, the Freedom Party is right up most of suburban Seattle's alley. They also win win suburban districts of Portland and Spokane. Inner city Spokane's district (only Democrat one in E. Wash, and a pretty solid one too) as well as the San Juan Islands/Bellingham area, with the Olympic Peninsula, Seattle, Tacoma, and some inner suburbs are independent liberal. Constitutional Union wins exurbs of Seattle, Spokane, and Portland. Farmer Labor wins several in SW Washington. ACA wins most of Eastern Washington and Lewis County.

I guess I wasn't too sure about splitting the Freedom and CU parties. Farmer Labor and Independent Liberal could switch a few too. FL might switch a couple with the ACA as well.

[Alcon]

I would see Washington as being:

18 Freedom
16 Independent Liberal
8 Conservative/ACA/whatever theyre called
3 Constitutional Union
3 Farmer Labor

I made a map but don't feel like uploading it. Basically, the Freedom Party is right up most of suburban Seattle's alley. They also win win suburban districts of Portland and Spokane. Inner city Spokane's district (only Democrat one in E. Wash, and a pretty solid one too) as well as the San Juan Islands/Bellingham area, with the Olympic Peninsula, Seattle, Tacoma, and some inner suburbs are independent liberal. Constitutional Union wins exurbs of Seattle, Spokane, and Portland. Farmer Labor wins several in SW Washington. ACA wins most of Eastern Washington and Lewis County.

I guess I wasn't too sure about splitting the Freedom and CU parties. Farmer Labor and Independent Liberal could switch a few too. FL might switch a couple with the ACA as well.

Oh, I think you are confusing the Freedom and CU parties a bit. The eastside would be CU - socially left-of-center, economically right-of-center. The Freedom Party is socially right-of-center and economically left-of-center.

[they don't love you like i love you]

Most Freedom districts are areas that tend to vote Republican at least for statewide districts, but are somewhat economically populist, and there's a few that vote Democratic but would prefer the Freedom Party to all the others Constitutional Union ones are basically the same, vote Republican but are socially moderate to liberal, a few that vote Democratic (perfect example is 40B), but would fit with the CU the best. MCA are solidly conservative (although this is going just by platform, I doubt a party ran by Naso, NixonNow and Phil would do well in any part of Minnesota). Farmer Labor and Independent Liberal are districts that usually vote Democratic, just going by what is the main reason they do, if it's social issues it goes Independent Liberal, if it's economic it goes Farmer Labor. Most of those northern FL districts would elect socially conservative FLers or Al-types, just like the type of Democrats they elect now. The Twin Cities by the way are 58 and up, I gave all of St. Paul to Farmer Labor since St. Paul is a rather blue collar city despite being fairly socially liberal, and north Minneapolis to FL as well since north Minneapolis is a very poor and crime ridden area, south Minneapolis went Independent Liberal since it's mostly "latte liberals", and opebo would actually be fairly popular there (well if you eliminate the NAMBLA sympathisies). I assume the areas with lots of minorities would vote FL as well, but it's safe to say that whoever was elected, FL or IL, would be ultra-leftist on both social and economic issues (just like who the Twin Cities currently elect).

WMS if you lived here you'd probably fit best in 4A or 22B, interesting because 22B is probably the closest thing in the state to New Mexico, it even has a relatively high number of Hispanics!

I'll see if I can get the Senate up tonight (shouldn't be too hard since Senate districts are just two House districts put together)

[WMS]

Most Freedom districts are areas that tend to vote Republican at least for statewide districts, but are somewhat economically populist, and there's a few that vote Democratic but would prefer the Freedom Party to all the others Constitutional Union ones are basically the same, vote Republican but are socially moderate to liberal, a few that vote Democratic (perfect example is 40B), but would fit with the CU the best. MCA are solidly conservative (although this is going just by platform, I doubt a party ran by Naso, NixonNow and Phil would do well in any part of Minnesota). Farmer Labor and Independent Liberal are districts that usually vote Democratic, just going by what is the main reason they do, if it's social issues it goes Independent Liberal, if it's economic it goes Farmer Labor. Most of those northern FL districts would elect socially conservative FLers or Al-types, just like the type of Democrats they elect now. The Twin Cities by the way are 58 and up, I gave all of St. Paul to Farmer Labor since St. Paul is a rather blue collar city despite being fairly socially liberal, and north Minneapolis to FL as well since north Minneapolis is a very poor and crime ridden area, south Minneapolis went Independent Liberal since it's mostly "latte liberals", and opebo would actually be fairly popular there (well if you eliminate the NAMBLA sympathisies). I assume the areas with lots of minorities would vote FL as well, but it's safe to say that whoever was elected, FL or IL, would be ultra-leftist on both social and economic issues (just like who the Twin Cities currently elect).

WMS if you lived here you'd probably fit best in 4A or 22B, interesting because 22B is probably the closest thing in the state to New Mexico, it even has a relatively high number of Hispanics!

I'll see if I can get the Senate up tonight (shouldn't be too hard since Senate districts are just two House districts put together)

Para 1: Thanks for the explanation.
Para 2: I clicked on the map and those are two very competitive electoral districts...I like it. And do you have a link to any description of the districts (I know those are pretty rare for state districts but figured I'd ask)? Since I of course don't know what 4A and 22B have in them...
Para 3: Your state handles districting a whole lot better than NM, which gerrymanders the f*** out of them and doesn't combine House districts into Senate districts. Go here and see for yourself. The State House is a Dem gerrymander and the State Senate is a bipartisan incumbent-protection gerrymander. Which one is worse I don't know...

[they don't love you like i love you]

The reason Minnesota's new map was drawn pretty fairly is there was a 3-way deadlock during redistricting. Republicans had the House, Democrats had the Senate, and Jesse was governor. All 3 sides wanted different plans, and since none would let another's plan pass, a court had to draw a compromise one.

22B is a district I drive through fairly often on the way to Sioux Falls. The largest town in it is Worthington, which a simple pass through just screams "boring Minnesota farming community" at when you drive through. It also is one of my least favorite towns in the state since it's known for cops who will bug you for anything, you ALWAYS obey the speed limit going through, but last time I did I STILL got pulled over by cops for basically no reason at all except that I was driving at 2 AM with an out of state license plate, and was checked for if I was driving drunk and had my car checked for drugs and weapons and they actually sounded dissapointed when they realized I had nothing on me, off topic but that really pissed me off and I always rant about it...anyway Worthington is almost 20% Hispanic, lots of the areas in southwest Minnesota including Watowan county (which is right next to mine) have growing Hispanic populations because Green Giant and other big corporations like to hire them down south and bus them up here to work on their co-ops. So it's basicaly like your typical Minnesota farming town with lots of Hispanics. Anyway Worthington is pretty heavily Republican. Democratic strength in the district comes from Windom, a town to the north that I also drive through, this is another typical small town in the middle of the prairie but it is actually pretty Democratic due to populist tradition even though Kerry BARELY won it (26 vote margin). Two other notable places are Lakefield and Jackson, Lakefield is another small community that appears Republican but actually votes narrowly Dem, I drove through it in the heart of campaign season and almost all signs were from Democrats, and there was actually a parked car with a Kerry/Edwards bumper sticker and one of those fish symbols. That's what most people in the area are like. And the main reason I like is it's home to a big refinery which has an unmanned gas station where you just pay at the pump with a credit card all the time, which means not having to stop in Worthington for gas! Jackson is not on my route but it is a college town, it is MUCH more conservative than my city or another college town like Winona, but that does give it a Dem voting base, it's also full of the populist type Democrats like in Lakefield and Windom who you would probably expect to be Republicans but aren't. The rest of the district is typical rural Republican. Also most people who live here love the scenery, lots of cornfields and rolling green hills, for those of us who do live here it means more boredom since we've seen it all a million times.

4A is actually pretty close to where the recent school shooting was although it doesn't contain the site which is in 2B and here's  a fun fact, the precinct for that area voted over 94% for Kerry! It still has a relatively high Native American population and contains Bemidji which is the largest town in the area. It also has a small university, which gives it some social liberalism, but it's still nothing compared to my university or the U of M. Like most of northwest Minnesota it's winnable for Republicans (unlike northeast Minnesota which would vote for opebo if he was running, even though just about everyone there would be utterly repulsed by him to put it rather mildly ), but they have to definately stay away from talking economics or bashing unions for sure (in an opebo vs. WalterMitty matchup here, opebo would win, even though describing turnout as "low" would be the understatement of the century. The main industries are logging and fishing, with Democratic pockets spread throughout areas where unions are strongest or have strong populist traditions. The rest of the area is pretty solidly Republican.

Both are similar to NM I guess in minority populations then (one has Hispanics, the other has Natives).

[they don't love you like i love you]

OK, here's the Senate:

http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20021105/SenDistMap.asp

1 – Freedom
2 – Farmer Labor
3 – Farmer Labor
4 – Freedom
5 – Farmer Labor
6 – Farmer Labor
7 – Farmer Labor
8 – Freedom
9 – Freedom
10 – MCA
11 – Freedom
12 – Freedom
13 – Freedom
14 – MCA
15 – Farmer Labor
16 – MCA
17 – MCA
18 – MCA
19 – MCA
20 – Farmer Labor
21 – MCA
22 – Freedom
23 – Farmer Labor
24 – Freedom
25 – Freedom
26 – MCA
27 – Farmer Labor
28 – Freedom
29 – Constitutional Union
30 – Farmer Labor*
31 – Farmer Labor
32 – MCA
33 – MCA
34 – MCA
35 – Constitutional Union
36 – MCA
37 – Constitutional Union
38 – Constitutional Union
39 – Farmer Labor
40 – Constitutional Union
41 – Constitutional Union
42 – Constitutional Union
43 – Constitutional Union
44 – Independent Liberal
45 – Independent Liberal
46 – Farmer Labor
47 – Constitutional Union
48 – Constitutional Union
49 – Constitutional Union
50 – Independent Liberal
51 – Constitutional Union
52 – Constitutional Union**
53 – Constitutional Union
54 – Independent Liberal
55 – Independent Liberal
56 – Constitutional Union
57 – Constitutional Union
58 – Farmer Labor
59 – Farmer Labor
60 – Farmer Labor
61 – Farmer Labor
62 – Independent Liberal
63 – Independent Liberal
64 – Farmer Labor
65 – Farmer Labor
66 – Farmer Labor
67 – Farmer Labor

*This district is actually held a member of the Minnesota Independence Party, but she caucuses with and usually votes with the Democrats.

**despite the fact that this seat is currently held by an EXTREMELY bigoted ultra-religious right nutjob, it is a socially moderate area that wasn't aware of how crazy she was when they elected her. After the last election she has seriously gone off the deep end.

Farmer Labor - 21
Freedom - 11
MCA - 13
Constitutional Union - 16
Independent Liberal - 7

[Platypus]

if Minneapolis has any wealthy, socially (but not economically) left-leaning inner city suburbs, I'd win it tyvm

[they don't love you like i love you]

if Minneapolis has any wealthy, socially (but not economically) left-leaning inner city suburbs, I'd win it tyvm

In places like Richfield, New Brighton and St. Louis Park you'd do well.

[WMS]

Very interesting thread, BTW.

[they don't love you like i love you]

and full of good advice to all future travelers coming through the Midwest:

DO NOT STOP IN WORTHINGTON.

If you're going through Sioux Falls fill up there, or wait for Albert Lea if you're going through on I-90. I think there may be a 24-hour station in Luzerne too. But do not stop in Worthington. And don't speed there either. Just keep a steady speed at the limit and get through it.

[ilikeverin]

if Minneapolis has any wealthy, socially (but not economically) left-leaning inner city suburbs, I'd win it tyvm

Mine will be by the time I'm done with it >:-D

Anyway, both of my people could be Constitutional Unionists, hooray (better than MCA )

[Хahar 🤔]

Bump!