electoral map after 2020-guess
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  electoral map after 2020-guess
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #25 on: March 12, 2009, 07:06:24 PM »

Here's my random guess of a 50/50 election:
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Bacon King
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« Reply #26 on: March 12, 2009, 08:05:32 PM »

Attention everyone: guesses this far out mean absolutely nothing.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: March 12, 2009, 09:30:43 PM »

You are absolutely right about predicting the results of an election. About all that anyone can reliably predict is what sorts of candidates might win where under certain conditions. Does a folksy, charismatic, optimistic right-winger defeat a morose liberal who doesn't have a clue? Ronald Reagan won twice.  Does a folksy, charismatic, optimistic left-winger defeat a morose conservative who doesn't have a clue? Absolutely.

Do bad economic times that appear suddenly under an incumbent President threaten his term of office? Of course; broad management of the economy through fiscal and monetary policy affects the quality of people's lives. 

Ten years ago, anyone who predicted that a black man then entering his late thirties not known outside one large city (sure it's a big one -- Chicago, but he wasn't Mayor) was going to become President of the United States, would you have laughed? Add that he would defeat a war hero in the general election. I would have laughed, too. Sure, we have elected blacks to the Senate, as mayors of large cities, and as governors of some states and we may have great respect for them. But those as a rule were people around 50 at the least. President? No way! We had our chances to elect non-WASP Presidents, and the only non-WASP President that we had ever elected (JFK) barely won. We had yet to elect a Polish-American, Italian-American, Scandinavian-American, Latino, Jewish, or Asian-American President; I would have expected one of those to become President before a black man. 

All that I can see are patterns, and most of them are unstable. I see the alignment of states in the election of 1992 far more similar to that of 2008 (sixteen years later) than that of 1976. One can use the political map of 1992 with a few adjustments to discuss 2008. The most unstable is a pattern of electoral blowouts for one Party; the party that loses big will try to find interest groups that feel underserved and people who dissent with the leadership of the then-dominant party. Add to this, the underdog Party offers electoral opportunities that the fat-cat party doesn't because incumbents have a huge advantage in primary elections, and might find some attractive young challengers to incumbents who eventually become irrelevant.

Political realities change with demographic change, economic changes, and of course the most unpredictable of all aspects of a Presidential election: who gets nominated. Could someone like (God forbid!) Jimmy Carter have been elected in 2008? Sure -- and that says much about 2008/
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Person Man
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« Reply #28 on: March 12, 2009, 09:59:54 PM »

Attention everyone: guesses this far out mean absolutely nothing.
Hell, before Katrina, everyone thought that every map would be like 2000-2004 forever, with the Ds gradually losing Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...basically, they would be down to...urmm... 204 EVs or somtin..and just be the Antisouth of the 21st Century.

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big bad fab
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« Reply #29 on: March 13, 2009, 05:27:56 AM »



Dems will have begun to recess in MidWestern, Great Lakes and even New England states.
After Obama, even in Illinois, GOP will start to grow.

GOP will be outnumbered in South West, even Texas, and in the South East coast.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #30 on: March 13, 2009, 06:34:05 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2009, 06:36:24 AM by Senator PiT »



     Since predictions this far out don't matter, there is an unlikely scenario I thought of that could lead to a 50/50 election looking like the above map.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2009, 05:54:54 AM »



     Since predictions this far out don't matter, there is an unlikely scenario I thought of that could lead to a 50/50 election looking like the above map.

Democrats will never carry Oklahoma, Alabama and Mississipi, whereas Republicans will never carry New York, Vermont and Hawaii. I have serious doubts about your map.

This is what would the 2020 map look like with the same trends that in 2008 ( I applied a correction for home states, 10 pts for president and 5 for V-P ) and with a toss-up on the popular vote.

Obviously this map doesn't seem very realistic : I don't think that republicans will carry Illinois. However, it show us interesting things about Arizona and the west coast... Democrats have still a structural advantage ( 282 E.V. )
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Zarn
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« Reply #32 on: March 18, 2009, 11:56:33 AM »



     Since predictions this far out don't matter, there is an unlikely scenario I thought of that could lead to a 50/50 election looking like the above map.

Democrats will never carry Oklahoma, Alabama and Mississipi, whereas Republicans will never carry New York, Vermont and Hawaii. I have serious doubts about your map.

This is what would the 2020 map look like with the same trends that in 2008 ( I applied a correction for home states, 10 pts for president and 5 for V-P ) and with a toss-up on the popular vote.

Obviously this map doesn't seem very realistic : I don't think that republicans will carry Illinois. However, it show us interesting things about Arizona and the west coast... Democrats have still a structural advantage ( 282 E.V. )

I guess someone never heard of Ronald Reagan... or when the Republican Party was the party of the North.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #33 on: March 18, 2009, 01:09:21 PM »



     Since predictions this far out don't matter, there is an unlikely scenario I thought of that could lead to a 50/50 election looking like the above map.

Democrats will never carry Oklahoma, Alabama and Mississipi, whereas Republicans will never carry New York, Vermont and Hawaii. I have serious doubts about your map.

This is what would the 2020 map look like with the same trends that in 2008 ( I applied a correction for home states, 10 pts for president and 5 for V-P ) and with a toss-up on the popular vote.

Obviously this map doesn't seem very realistic : I don't think that republicans will carry Illinois. However, it show us interesting things about Arizona and the west coast... Democrats have still a structural advantage ( 282 E.V. )

I guess someone never heard of Ronald Reagan... or when the Republican Party was the party of the North.

Reagan realigned republicans on conservative positions. He was clearly more strong in the South and West than in the North. If the GOP won some Northern states, it's only because he got landslides. Anyway, Reagan era is definitely ended and the trend today is not in favor of the GOP in the northeast...
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Zarn
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« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2009, 02:24:50 PM »

That's 20 years from now.

I'm not a mathematician, but today plus 20 years does not equal today.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #35 on: March 24, 2009, 03:31:18 PM »



     Since predictions this far out don't matter, there is an unlikely scenario I thought of that could lead to a 50/50 election looking like the above map.

Democrats will never carry Oklahoma, Alabama and Mississipi, whereas Republicans will never carry New York, Vermont and Hawaii. I have serious doubts about your map.

This is what would the 2020 map look like with the same trends that in 2008 ( I applied a correction for home states, 10 pts for president and 5 for V-P ) and with a toss-up on the popular vote.

Obviously this map doesn't seem very realistic : I don't think that republicans will carry Illinois. However, it show us interesting things about Arizona and the west coast... Democrats have still a structural advantage ( 282 E.V. )

     If you'll notice, I said that I deliberately made this scenario an unlikely one.
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Rob
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« Reply #36 on: March 24, 2009, 04:54:36 PM »



Sad times for the GOP.
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Verily
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« Reply #37 on: March 24, 2009, 06:11:57 PM »

For the record, every state and DC have voted Democrat at least once since 1964, inclusive--in just 44 years of Presidential elections (or 45 years total). Every state (but not DC) has voted Republican at least once since 1972--in just 36 years of Presidential elections.
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Zarn
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« Reply #38 on: March 24, 2009, 06:16:25 PM »

Verily stop using facts to support the idea that anything is possible. People don't like facts.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #39 on: March 24, 2009, 11:30:39 PM »

Here's one scenario as it might play out, a nightmare scenario for the GOP:

2008: Obama election



with which we are familiar.

2012 re-election:



(The GOP nominee does something nasty to Sarah Palin's campaign, and despite her calls for party unity, Alaskans don't forgive the GOP. The GOP also takes Texas for granted and pays dearly.

2016: A southern moderate populist takes the nomination. The hard-core Democratic states will still vote for practically anyone riding a donkey, and things get really bad for the GOP:



while a President very different from Obama has a surprisingly good first term. Much like the Democrats in the US Senate race in Indiana in 2006 against Richard Lugar (the Libertarian candidate won 12.6% of the vote, and the Democrats offered nobody), the Republicans don't even bother to put up a serious challenge for the Presidency. Who needs to see such a map?


That is called an Era of Good Feeling. It doesn't last; the Democratic Party becomes unwieldy and rifts in 2023 and 2024. One Party is clearly conservative, and one is liberal to the point of social democracy.  Neither will be known as the Democratic Party because both will refuse to allow the other faction to possess the symbolism. 

The 2024 map could be far more interesting. 

This scenario has a slight chance of occurring.
 
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #40 on: March 25, 2009, 12:30:28 AM »

These are great! No way does the GOP not disappear!
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #41 on: March 25, 2009, 09:24:51 AM »

Here's one scenario as it might play out, a nightmare scenario for the GOP:

2008: Obama election



with which we are familiar.

2012 re-election:



(The GOP nominee does something nasty to Sarah Palin's campaign, and despite her calls for party unity, Alaskans don't forgive the GOP. The GOP also takes Texas for granted and pays dearly.

2016: A southern moderate populist takes the nomination. The hard-core Democratic states will still vote for practically anyone riding a donkey, and things get really bad for the GOP:



while a President very different from Obama has a surprisingly good first term. Much like the Democrats in the US Senate race in Indiana in 2006 against Richard Lugar (the Libertarian candidate won 12.6% of the vote, and the Democrats offered nobody), the Republicans don't even bother to put up a serious challenge for the Presidency. Who needs to see such a map?


That is called an Era of Good Feeling. It doesn't last; the Democratic Party becomes unwieldy and rifts in 2023 and 2024. One Party is clearly conservative, and one is liberal to the point of social democracy.  Neither will be known as the Democratic Party because both will refuse to allow the other faction to possess the symbolism. 

The 2024 map could be far more interesting. 

This scenario has a slight chance of occurring.
 

That's exactly what I were imagining. The GOP seems to be in a very bad situation and will be hardly beaten, whereas the great differences between democrats will conduce him to a split. Obviously that's not sure, but it certainly could happen.
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Plankton5165
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« Reply #42 on: September 12, 2016, 09:11:10 PM »

I see SC gaining EVs.
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Medal506
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« Reply #43 on: October 06, 2016, 06:37:42 PM »

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15 Down, 35 To Go
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #44 on: October 06, 2016, 06:46:53 PM »

And I thought the Atlas of today was crazy in their fantasy of every state trending Democratic!
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Lachi
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« Reply #45 on: October 06, 2016, 09:25:42 PM »

Lol, considering almost every state in the south is trending democrat, this is only a dream for you guys.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #46 on: February 02, 2019, 12:57:44 AM »



A narrow Republican defeat of the Democratic incumbent.


LOL this is the 2016 map if you just flip AZ and MN
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Cokeland Saxton
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« Reply #47 on: February 02, 2019, 12:20:25 PM »


SC just gained one after the 2010 census. It will be a couple decades.
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Scottholes 2.0
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« Reply #48 on: February 02, 2019, 02:42:57 PM »


No way does Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa go blue while Wisconsin and Oregon don't. Argh, Atlas, I tell you Tongue
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Lachi
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« Reply #49 on: February 02, 2019, 06:41:05 PM »


No way does Ohio, Indiana, and Iowa go blue while Wisconsin and Oregon don't. Argh, Atlas, I tell you Tongue
Tbf, this was 2008 atlas, right after Obama was elected, so that's not really as crazy as it would be now Tongue
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