U.S. Senate

[A18]

The Senate is all that's standing in the way of the Marriage Protection Act right now, with a weak GOP lead of 53-47 (that's counting jumpin' Jim as a Democrat).

Three GOP seats are open; one of them will belong to Obama soon; two are close.

Meanwhile, there are five open Democrat seats, ALL in the deep south (though one is Florida)! I think Republicans will pull that one off too, but Alan Keyes will hand them a net gain of only 4.

But the Daschle factor could bring it back to five, should Thune be successful in unseating the anti-Bush minority leader.

This could be big. The GOP has a better than 50-50 shot at most of these seats.

My prediction: GOP 58-41-1

It's not going to get them the 60 procedural votes, but they may be too close for Democratic comfort.

Your thoughts?

[AuH2O]

Follow the leader. I'm a believer in coattails, and this year the Senate is doing battle on Bush turf.

It's like home field advantage. If you are otherwise even, you probably will win in your own house.

If there is a strong Bush win- say he marginally wins the debates and nothing of significance transpires otherwise- I think there are going to be a lot of crying Dems come Election Day.

[Nym90]

The Senate is all that's standing in the way of the Marriage Protection Act right now, with a weak GOP lead of 53-47 (that's counting jumpin' Jim as a Democrat).

Three GOP seats are open; one of them will belong to Obama soon; two are close.

Meanwhile, there are five open Democrat seats, ALL in the deep south (though one is Florida)! I think Republicans will pull that one off too, but Alan Keyes will hand them a net gain of only 4.

But the Daschle factor could bring it back to five, should Thune be successful in unseating the anti-Bush minority leader.

This could be big. The GOP has a better than 50-50 shot at most of these seats.

My prediction: GOP 58-41-1

It's not going to get them the 60 procedural votes, but they may be too close for Democratic comfort.

Your thoughts?

The current Senate is 51-49, not 53-47. It is highly unlikely that the Republicans could make a net gain of 5 seats, and even less likely that they could pick up 7. They'd have to win every single race that is even remotely competitive. Assuming they lose Illinois, they'd have to gain North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and South Dakota, plus hold all of the rest of their own competitive seats (Colorado, Oklahoma, Alaska). Gaining 7 would require them to also score upsets in places like Wisconsin and Washington in addition to all of the above.

[A18]

All of those seats are in the south (except South Dakota), and one of them is in Oklahoma.

They're going to win at least 3, and will probably win 5.

You're correct that the lead is 51-49, though. My mistake.

[Friar]

Philip, do a little research before you post.

My take on the senate races is:

Republicans seats switch to Dem - Alaska, Oklahoma, Colorado and Illinois. Net gain of 4 seats.

Democrat seats switch to Republican - South Carolina, Georgia,

3 seats too close to call - all 3 of them are currently Dem seats - Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina.

I really can't see a scenario where the republican net gain will be more than 2 seats.

[AuH2O]

Sure, if you think Dems are going to win 3 tossups that are in Bush territory (CO, OK, AK). But they aren't going to win all 3... they'll be lucky to win 1.

[nini2287]

To GOP:
South Carolina
Georgia
South Dakota

To Dems:
Illinois
Colorado
Alaska
Oklahoma

[TeePee4Prez]

To GOP:
South Carolina
Georgia
South Dakota

To Dems:
Illinois
Colorado
Alaska
Oklahoma

South Dakota is staying Dem.  Where have you been man?  I need more Dem support for our district in here! WOOT WOOT!

[nini2287]

I think Thune is too strong of a challenger + Bush on the ticket + Daschle alienating Dem base with Bush ad = GOP pickup

[Jake]

To GOP:
South Carolina
Georgia
South Dakota

To Dems:
Illinois
Colorado
Alaska
Oklahoma

Oklahoma
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No way possible.
CO maybe
AK good chance
OK no way

[© tweed]

Dems pick up Illinois, Oklahoma, Alaska, Colorado

Reps pick up Florida, South Carolina, Georgia

So 50-49-1?

[A18]

There's no way Oklahoma, Alaska, and Colorado will be Democrat pickups. It's not just GOP territory; it's 60% Bush territory in two of those states.

I revise my prediction to 56-43-1

[Smash255]

There's no way Oklahoma, Alaska, and Colorado will be Democrat pickups. It's not just GOP territory; it's 60% Bush territory in two of those states.

I revise my prediction to 56-43-1

Colorado has a growing hispanic population.  Salazzar is VERY popular among hispanics.  Coors has his own probblems.

Murowski its been well documented what her poorous situation has been and Knowles is VERY popular in the state.

Coburn's situation is just getting uglier by the day.

So while 2 of these 3 states are safe Bush states, that doesn't mean it will equate for Rep victories.  In the 2 safe states the Republican candidates have problems of their own, Corburn of a legal variety, Murowski people just don't like her.  Salazzar and Knowles are well liked in their respective states.

[nini2287]

Colorado-On election day, barring a complete blowout, Colorado will be closer than some people think and that is because Salazar is on the ballot who will help to bring the 17% Hispanic population to the polls.

Oklahoma-Coburn keeps shooting himself in the foot, and while Kerry has no chance in OK, Carson does and I think he'll pull it out.

Alaska-Once again Kerry has no chance here, but Knowles is a lot more popular than Kerry and Murkowski hasn't won too many supporters

[AuH2O]

Yeah, they all said things like that about Spencer Abraham. Incumbent, no-name opponent. And he lost. Said the same thing about Jeanne Shaheen and Max Cleland. They lost.

[zorkpolitics]

The Senate is very much undecided at this point.    It's possible the Democrats could end up with a net +2 or the Republicans could end up with a net +6, or anything in between.  The toss up states favor the Republicans, but its by no means a sure thing they'll win those Senate seats.

3 seats are almost cetain to change hands:
GA and SC to the Republicans, IL to the Democrats

But 7 other seats really could go either way depending on how the local campaigns develops and if Kerry or Bush open a significant lead.

The Republican pick-up opportunities, from most to least, among the toss ups are:
SD
FL
NC
LA

Not a toss-up now, but possible depending on the campaign is:
WI

Very unlikey are
WA
CA
 
The Democratic Pick-ups among the toss-ups are, again from most to least likely, are:
CO
AK
OK

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

To GOP:
South Carolina
Georgia
South Dakota

To Dems:
Illinois
Colorado
Alaska
Oklahoma

Oklahoma
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

No way possible.
CO maybe
AK good chance
OK no way

Scandal ridden OK Republican candidate is down in the polls

[© tweed]

Graph of Carson's chances according to tradesports:

[Sarnstrom]

Tom Daschle will be re-elected this year.

[Horus]

If Carson can hold on to his lead, he'll win. Seeing as the scandals seem to mostly be with Coburn, I think Carson has a chance.

My current prediction:

Rep Pickups:
FL
GA
SC

Dem Pickups:
AK
CO (Coors is a bad nominee, with the growing hispanic population, Salazar will win)
IL (Duh)
OK (As I said, if this sterilization stuff keeps going, Carson will win)

As for SD, Daschle could very well lose, but I think he has a 51-49 chance of staying right now. About the odds Johnson had in 2002.

Burr is running out of time in NC, Bowles will win.

As for LA, John is the one of the most conservative Dems in the house, but I don't think he's Zell Miller v2.0. He'll win, because after the election, the Dems will dump all of their resources left into that seat.

As for Wisconsin and Washington.... dream on.

So I think we'll gain a seat, making it 50-49-1, still in the GOP's favor. But Jeffords almost always votes with us so that's basically 50-50. Also, I've read speculation of Chafee switching parties, while I HIGHLY doubt he would it's something to think about.  

[Akno21]

My Predictions:

GOP Pickups:
South Carolina
Georgia
Florida

DEM Pickups:
Illinois
Alaska
Colorado

Stays as is.

[zachman]

Yeah, they all said things like that about Spencer Abraham. Incumbent, no-name opponent. And he lost. Said the same thing about Jeanne Shaheen and Max Cleland. They lost.

They never said that about Jeanne Shaheen. It became an up for grabs race the day Sununu got the nom.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The SC race is most definitely not in the bag for DeMint and the race is tightening.  The most recent poll I've seen http://www.inez2004.com/portal/files/phatfile/SC%20poll%20memo.pdf
was taken September 7-9 and showed Bush with a 54-38 lead over Kerry but only a 46-40 lead for Demint with definite voters and 44-41 with likely voters.  The Bush numbers are in line with other polls, so I'm willing to accept that the Senate numbers are in the ballpark despite it being a poll released to the public by the  Inez campaign.  DeMint still has the lead, but this race is close enough that it can be won by Inez.  The so-called Fair Tax has hurt DeMint badly.

[TeePee4Prez]

I hope Inez wins.  DeMint seems like an @ss to me.

[Horus]

Well, that puts it closer than I thought, it may be closer, but my gut tells me Inez won't win.

It'd be great if she did, but right now I think it's a 70-30 chance of DeMint winning, still could change by Election day though, that's just how I see things now.