The Senate is all that's standing in the way of the Marriage Protection Act right now, with a weak GOP lead of 53-47 (that's counting jumpin' Jim as a Democrat).
Three GOP seats are open; one of them will belong to Obama soon; two are close.
Meanwhile, there are five open Democrat seats, ALL in the deep south (though one is Florida)! I think Republicans will pull that one off too, but Alan Keyes will hand them a net gain of only 4.
But the Daschle factor could bring it back to five, should Thune be successful in unseating the anti-Bush minority leader.
This could be big. The GOP has a better than 50-50 shot at most of these seats.
My prediction: GOP 58-41-1
It's not going to get them the 60 procedural votes, but they may be too close for Democratic comfort.
Your thoughts?
The current Senate is 51-49, not 53-47. It is highly unlikely that the Republicans could make a net gain of 5 seats, and even less likely that they could pick up 7. They'd have to win every single race that is even remotely competitive. Assuming they lose Illinois, they'd have to gain North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and South Dakota, plus hold all of the rest of their own competitive seats (Colorado, Oklahoma, Alaska). Gaining 7 would require them to also score upsets in places like Wisconsin and Washington in addition to all of the above.
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