U.S. Senate

[zorkpolitics]

The Senate is very much undecided at this point.    It's possible the Democrats could end up with a net +2 or the Republicans could end up with a net +6, or anything in between.  The toss up states favor the Republicans, but its by no means a sure thing they'll win those Senate seats.

3 seats are almost cetain to change hands:
GA and SC to the Republicans, IL to the Democrats

But 7 other seats really could go either way depending on how the local campaigns develops and if Kerry or Bush open a significant lead.

The Republican pick-up opportunities, from most to least, among the toss ups are:
SD
FL
NC
LA

Not a toss-up now, but possible depending on the campaign is:
WI

Very unlikey are
WA
CA
 
The Democratic Pick-ups among the toss-ups are, again from most to least likely, are:
CO
AK
OK

[zorkpolitics]

One uncertain factor is active campaigning by Bush,  If Bush has a good lead >5% the last two weeks in Oct, he will shift his campaigning to support candidates for the Senate in the strong Red states SD, OK,  FL, LA, NC, which could increase his coat tails.