How vulnerable are these congressmen in the upcoming midterms?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Gerlach will lose eventually.  Probably not 2010, since it's a midterm.  But 2008 should have shown that yes, he will lose eventually.

And as such, he may want to look into a statewide run sooner rather than later.  Even if it's just for Treasurer or something.

[Verily]

Dave Reichert - Maybe 20% chance of losing. Democrats need a new candidate.
Tom McClintock - <1% chance of losing. Safe unless he does something stupid.
Ken Calvert - 30% chance of losing. Expect some targeting this time around. If a nobody got that close, he's in danger.
Jerry McNerney - Should be reasonably safe, trends in the district are very favorable for him. 10% chance of losing.
Betsy Markey - Despite what others say, I like her position. I don't think she's at all guaranteed to lose; Markey is no Boyda, and her district has become much, much more Democratic than it was even four years ago. 40% chance of losing.
John Fleming - Should be quite safe in a midterm election. Would have to be involved in a scandal to lose, although, given how common those are in Louisiana... 1% chance of losing.
Erik Paulsen - Probably safe until redistricting, and should be safe even then (it will be Bachmann whose district gets the axe). Not completely secure, though. 10% chance of losing.
Jim Gerlach - Will lose eventually or retire. 2010 might be a good year for the Democrats to push hard if Specter looks likely to lose his primary. All depends on what candidate the Democrats put up, and if Specter survives. 40% chance of losing.
Kathy Dahlkemper - Don't know much about Dahlkemper or how good she'll be at entrenching herself, but the Democrats hold a fair number of much more vulnerable districts than this one. Maybe 15% chance of losing.
Paul Kanjorski - The Republicans would need a good candidate again. And Barletta may not be willing to run a second time. But he really should lose. I'll say 60% chance of losing.

[Ronnie]

Don't forget that Fleming will be in big trouble when redistricting comes up.  Also, I think that McClintock has much greater odds to screw up.

[ilikeverin]

Paulsen is safe until he wants to retire, presuming his voting record stays as moderate as his rhetoric straightjacked him into.  (After about 5 terms, he's safe pretty much no matter what )

If he has a voting record like Ramstad's, that will be true. 

Oh, absolutely.  If it turns out he's a new Ramstad, he'll be safe forever.  Here's to hoping he's not! (though a new Ramstad in office for 20 years is definitely preferable to a new Bachmann in office for 20 years )

[bgwah]

Reichert is probably safe now. Democrats threw that seat away with awful candidates.

[Mr.Phips]

Dave Reichert - Maybe 20% chance of losing. Democrats need a new candidate.
Tom McClintock - <1% chance of losing. Safe unless he does something stupid.
Ken Calvert - 30% chance of losing. Expect some targeting this time around. If a nobody got that close, he's in danger.
Jerry McNerney - Should be reasonably safe, trends in the district are very favorable for him. 10% chance of losing.
Betsy Markey - Despite what others say, I like her position. I don't think she's at all guaranteed to lose; Markey is no Boyda, and her district has become much, much more Democratic than it was even four years ago. 40% chance of losing.
John Fleming - Should be quite safe in a midterm election. Would have to be involved in a scandal to lose, although, given how common those are in Louisiana... 1% chance of losing.
Erik Paulsen - Probably safe until redistricting, and should be safe even then (it will be Bachmann whose district gets the axe). Not completely secure, though. 10% chance of losing.
Jim Gerlach - Will lose eventually or retire. 2010 might be a good year for the Democrats to push hard if Specter looks likely to lose his primary. All depends on what candidate the Democrats put up, and if Specter survives. 40% chance of losing.
Kathy Dahlkemper - Don't know much about Dahlkemper or how good she'll be at entrenching herself, but the Democrats hold a fair number of much more vulnerable districts than this one. Maybe 15% chance of losing.
Paul Kanjorski - The Republicans would need a good candidate again. And Barletta may not be willing to run a second time. But he really should lose. I'll say 60% chance of losing.

Republicans have nobody but Barletta in PA-11.  That district is rock solid Democratic at the local level.