pa and mich winnable for the gop?

[WalterMitty]

i dont think so, as much as i hate to say it.  i just dont see any way bush can pull off wins in those two states.  the rust belt has suffered more than the rest of the country in the latest economic downturn, and these states have been trending democratic for over a decade now.

the election is going to be won or lost for bush in nh, fl, and wva.

[Nation]

I'd disagree and say Ohio. Florida will clearly go GOP, New Hampshire will probably go Democratic, and WV won't really matter, since the turnaround of 20 electoral votes in a swing state like Ohio will outdo any gains made in states like WV and NH.

[StevenNick]

I think those states are both definately winnable for the GOP.  Both those states have moderate to conservative citizens on social issues.  And if John Kerry drifts too far to the left on trade, he could definately lose some votes in both states.  Michigan especially is not going to elect a protectionist.  Kerry's votes for a 50 cent gas tax increase and for increasing fuel emision standards could really hurt him in Michigan.

[Nation]

Hey, Kerry isn't the nominee yet

[TheWildCard]

I think if the economy keeps going up these states will be in play. Plus Nader's entrance in the race pushs them even more in play.

[Nym90]

Nader was not much of a factor in either state in 2000, he only got 2% here in Michigan.

Michigan is certainly not a pro-free trade state by any means, in fact I would say it is more protectionist than the national average. True, the auto industry wants free trade, but the UAW doesn't. Of course, it is too simplistic to define Michigan by the auto industry solely, but it is obviously a force to be reckoned with here.

I'm not as much of an expert on Pennsylvania obviously, but it has a strong union presence as well and thus I can't see how opposition to free trade is harmful politically in PA. I would assume the union voters there largely oppose free trade as well.

As for Kerry's environmental positions, people said the same thing about Gore in 2000, that his positions would cost him Michigan. It didn't happen. This is another situation where the interests of the auto manufacturers are at odds with those of the auto workers.

[Nym90]

In response to the original question, yes PA and MI are winnable for the GOP, but only if Bush is winning a reasonably solid victory, by at least 5% in the popular vote.

[NHPolitico]

i dont think so, as much as i hate to say it.  i just dont see any way bush can pull off wins in those two states.  the rust belt has suffered more than the rest of the country in the latest economic downturn, and these states have been trending democratic for over a decade now.

the election is going to be won or lost for bush in nh, fl, and wva.

The Zogby poll had Bush down 1-2 points to Kerry in the blue states as a whole. That is an 11-point move up from 2000 for Bush, more than enough to win Pennsylvania. Now, granted, these are polls and not actual votes, but the state is competitive now and Bush was winning the state in polls early in the cycle. Once Bush starts running ads (voters in the Keystone State will see them I'm sure), he'll probably be very much in the game there.  Even with Teresa being from PA, I think Bush will be competitive there.

Michigan is a whole other issue.

[WalterMitty]

nhpolitico:  just wondering why you think pennstylvania may be more competitve than michigan?

im not necessarily disagreeing with you, just curious to your reasons.

[muon2]

I would tend to agree with NHPolitico that PA is more in play than MI. In 2000 I had MI firmly with Gore, but thought that Bush would win PA (and lose FL). The unions did a super job getting their members to the PA polls that year.

They will have to redouble that effort to deliver PA for the Dems this year. At this point with that effort assumed, I think PA is close but leaning Dem. Job generation over the next four months will be the key here - past June it will be too late to register with voters.

[elcorazon]

I'd disagree and say Ohio. Florida will clearly go GOP, New Hampshire will probably go Democratic, and WV won't really matter, since the turnaround of 20 electoral votes in a swing state like Ohio will outdo any gains made in states like WV and NH.

Not sure if this was your point, but you do realize all 4 states you mention went for Bush in 2000.  If the dems win NH & WV & all the Gore states, then it is 269-269, so I wouldn't assume NH & WV don't matter.  Of course that assumes the dems keep all the Gore states, like NM, WI, IA, etc., which I think they will.  Add Nevada or any other state & the dems win.

[Ben.]

In 2000 PA went Dem by 4%... the full results where…

Gore (DEM): 50.60%
Bush (REP): 46.43%
Nader (G): 2.10%

Turnout:  63.1%

Now in 2000 Bush won a large number of votes from blue collar workers in the west of the state around Pittsburg. In 2003 the Philly mayoral election only really produced a Dem victory thanks to the publication of the FBI’s activities in the race this could boost Dem turnout in the east again in 2004. In 2002 Ed Rendell was elected Governor with 53% to his republican opponents 45% and has been very popular since, governing as a moderate Dem he is a proven and effective campaigner and that may well boost the Democrats in the state….

Factoring in the repeal of the Steel tariffs which will probably lead some blue collar workers who voted for Bush in 2000 to go for the Democrats this time around, a heightened Dem turnout thanks to Rendell’s efforts and the fact that they have been totally locked out of power (expect that to be factor nationwide) and finally even with Nader’s run this year I’d say half of his support from 2000 will go to the Dems that’s about +4% for the Dems…. HOWEVER…. The Dems have disadvantages the war on terror will give Bush a modest boost every where, the perception of Kerry as a social liberal will also hit the dems hard but with a moderate running mate the damage will be containable however it will boost Republican turnout in the “t” of Pennsylvania all this will give Bush a boost nock 3% off of the Dem gains so I’d say results from PA in 2004 will be something like…

Kerry (DEM): 52.3%
Bush (REP): 45.5%
Nader (I): .9%
Others: 1.3%


Michigan as with PA went solidly for Gore in 2000 with him gaining an overall majority….

Gore (DEM): 51.28%
Bush (REP): 46.14%
Nader (G): 1.99%

some have suggested that the auto industry’s benefiting from the repeal of the steel tariffs will help Bush in the state however it seems they are confusing what helps the directors of these companies and what the workers in these companies want most of the workers in the auto industry are fairly protectionist and their unions certainly are and in that respect I’d say that between the benefit for the Industry as a whole and the rank and file auto workers opposition to free trade the Steel Tariffs will be a non issue… in 2000 Gore was socially liberal however not necessarily perceived as such however it is highly likely that Kerry and this could hurt with the mostly socially conservative population of MI…however the issue of unemployment (which will get big play nationally) will help Kerry as will the possibility of an economic populist such as Edwards on the ticket…In the end I’d say a shift towards Bush of 1.5% on the social issues (if he approaches it from a moderate and not too stridently conservative position)  however on economic issues Kerry get a 1% shift towards him (it may be larger else where based on this issue however most of those effected by unemployment in MI are Dems any way and finally around ½ to 2/3 of Nader voters in 2000 will vote for Kerry this time around (+ say .9 to Kerry as a result of that) so MI may look something like this…

Kerry (DEM): 52.18%
Bush (REP): 46.64%
Nader(I): .8%
Others: .38%

“And that’s today’s talking point” …. Well probably not but its my two cents at least… I should stop watching Fox it feeds my social conservatism… dame it!

[So the Heroes Fall]

I don't think so. Both states elected very liberal governors in 2002 coming right off the administrations of popular Republican incumbents, so they've been turning to the left recentely. Also the new regulations Bush passed which strips many workers of their overtime pay will NOT play well in those states. Bush can try but he'll come within 3 points at most.

[opebo]

Both states are sad cases of very decent GOP rural and far suburban areas being swamped by urban/inner suburban minority/union/protectionist voters.  In other words if the nation is polarized, then these are some of the most polarized states, within their own borders.
What makes Pennsylvania seem more doable is that it has two GOP senators, one RINO, but one a genuine right-winger.  Michigan by contrast has nothing to recommend it.  I'd say the gay marriage issue, plus cultural issues in general, give Bush a chance in PA, but not MI.

[Sibboleth]

Yes they are winnable, but Bush won't win them (kind of like Georgia and Colorado for the Dems).

[NHPolitico]

LANCASTER, Pa. -- A new poll shows that the economy is Pennsylvanians' biggest concern, and that President Bush and Democratic front-runner John Kerry are running about even in the state.

The News 8, Patriot News, Keystone Poll found that if the presidential election was held today, 46 percent of those polled would vote for President George W. Bush. Of those polled, 47 percent said they would vote for Democratic frontrunner Sen. John Kerry, and 8 percent did not know.

Researchers at Franklin and Marshall College also looked into the issues that will direct voters choice.

There are many issues facing Pennsylvanians this year, but the economy concerns more people than ever.

The poll showed 35 percent of those surveyed think the economy is the most important problem facing the state today. That's up 8 percent from last year.

"This is a profound change that will dramatically affect the course of all political campaigns in Pennsylvania this year," said Terry Madonna, Keystone Poll director.

Madonna said a loss of jobs, specifically manufacturing jobs, has left Pennsylvanians insecure about the economy.

Last week, News 8 reported that Meyer Packaging in Palmyra, Lebanon County is shutting down, cutting 70 jobs.

"Unemployment is high, and it's hard getting jobs," said James Cross, of Lancaster.

"There is a deep concern that the new jobs being created don't pay as well as the old jobs," Madonna said.

The next problem facing Pennsylvania is education. Of those surveyed, 15 percent said this issue is most important to them, up slightly from last year.

"Early childhood education, smaller class size, especially for young children in grades three and below," Madonna said.

"I'm a teacher and I've seen a lot of problems with what has happened with the No Child Left Behind (federal requirements)," said Jen Gillard, of Lancaster.

Taxes ranked third with 11 percent of those surveyed calling it the most important issue.

"There's too many taxes. I can't keep up with my bills. It's way to hard to get a paycheck, and it goes before I even get it," said Steve Gardner, of Lancaster.

Researchers also asked about the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. Of those surveyed, 55 percent said they would vote for incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter. Challenger Rep. Pat Toomey was chosen by 17 percent of those polled and 28 percent were undecided.

In the survey, 532 adult Pennsylvanians were interviewed by telephone between Feb. 19 and 22. The sampling margin of error was plus or minus four percentage points. For a smaller group of registered voters who were asked additional questions, the margin was plus or minus five points.

[NHPolitico]

HARRISBURG -- Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell's job-performance rating is lower than former Republican Gov. Tom Ridge's after one year in office, according to a poll released Tuesday.

Rendell's job-performance rating has declined steadily from 46 percent last April to 37 percent this month, according to the Keystone Poll by Franklin and Marshall College.

Rendell took office in January 2003. The 37 percent rating this month is comprised of voters who rated his performance "excellent" or "good."

Ridge's job rating increased from 53 percent to 61 percent during a comparable time frame. Ridge took office in January 1995, and his job-performance rating was higher in February 1996, the poll shows.

Rendell, overall, still is viewed more favorably than unfavorably, said G. Terry Madonna, the poll's director. Rendell's favorability rating -- whether voters generally like him -- dropped from 50 percent in October 2002 to 40 percent this month. Although 40 percent view him favorably, 32 percent have an unfavorable view of the governor from Philadelphia, the poll shows.

Rendell "in a sense, is a victim of this rhetoric nationwide, that we're not out of this recession," Madonna said, explaining that incumbents tend to be blamed by voters who perceive the economy to be in the dumps.

"We're not surprised the economy is top on voters' minds," said Kate Philips, press secretary for Rendell. "It's top on the governor's mind as well. It's something he's working hard to change."

The Democratic governor has been stymied by a Republican-controlled Legislature that held up his agenda, Madonna said.

The governor had pushed through a 10 percent increase in the state income tax in December, but voters still haven't received the property-tax cuts that Rendell had hoped to fund by legalizing slot machines, Madonna said.

Rendell's budget was held up for nine months last year in a bitter dispute with the Legislature.

By contrast, Ridge finished a successful first year in office in 1995, during which he had passed a popular anti-crime package and a state budget accompanied by business-tax cuts, Madonna said. Still, by his second year in office, Ridge was being called "one-term Tom" -- which was largely "beltway banter," Madonna explained.

Regional differences offer a stark contrast in Pennsylvanians' perception of Rendell, according to the poll.

Rendell's favorable job-performance rating exceeded 60 percent in southeast Pennsylvania and in Philadelphia, where he had served as mayor and district attorney. In Southwestern Pennsylvania, however, 25 percent of voters rated the governor as doing as "excellent or good" job, and 66 percent rated his performance as "fair or good," the poll shows.

Statewide, 6 percent of voters said Rendell is doing an "excellent" job and 31 percent said he is doing a "good" job. Forty-four percent said Rendell is doing "fair," 13 percent "poor" and 7 percent said they didn't know.

A total of 398 registered voters statewide responded to the Rendell job-rating question. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

[So the Heroes Fall]

undecideds usually break 2:1 against the incumbent, so even a narrow lead at this case is good. With Bush's assault on worker's rights I definately can't see him carrying either state. And the gay marriage issue won't amount to much since both Michigan and Pennsylvania elected governors with the exactly same stance as Kerry.

[Dave from Michigan]

Michigan could go republican it's unlikely though

[Dave from Michigan]

In Michigan

Kerry 50%

Bush 48%

[HockeyDude]

In November..........

MICHIGAN
Kerry - 53%
Bush - 46%

PENNSYLVANIA
Kerry - 51%
Bush - 48%

[MarkDel]

Bush has about a 35% chance of winning Pennsylvania and about a 30% chance of winning Michigan. But he has about a 75% chance of winning Ohio and about 90% chance of winning Florida.

[Dave from Michigan]

Kerry's not going to get 53% of the vote in Michigan