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Author Topic: State-by-State Polling - An Analysis  (Read 3770 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: December 16, 2008, 12:38:52 am »
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I've decided to put the arbitrary cut-off date at October 1 - polls that do not end by that date are not counted.  Rounding will be used (as the polls round too).

My ARG data may be wrong, as their polls tend to be loosely catalogued.  If there are any additional polls to add, let me know when I finish this...

Alabama - McCain 60%, Obama 39% (McCain +21)
1. Capital Survey Research Center (McCain +20)
2. Survey USA (McCain +25)

Alaska - McCain 59%, Obama 38% (McCain +21)
1. Research2000 (McCain +19)
2. Rasmussen (McCain +16)
3. ARG (McCain +12)
4. Ivan Moore Research (McCain +11)
5. Hays Research Group (McCain +3)

Arizona - McCain 53%, Obama 45% (McCain +8)
1. Northern Arizona U. (McCain +8)
2. CNN/Time/Opinion Research (McCain +7)
3. Rasmussen (McCain +5)
4. (tie) Mason-Dixon (McCain +4)
ARG (ditto)
6. Arizona State U. (McCain +2)
7. Research2000 (McCain +1)

Arkansas - McCain 59%, Obama 39% (McCain +20)
1. U. of Arkansas (McCain +13)
2. Research2000 (McCain +11)
3. Rasmussen (McCain +10)
4. ARG (McCain +7)

California - McCain 37%, Obama 61% (Obama +24)
1. SurveyUSA (Obama +24)
2. PPIC (Obama +23)
3. Field Poll (Obama +22)
4. Rasmussen (Obama +27)

Colorado - McCain 45%, Obama 54% (Obama +9)
1. (tie) AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +9)
Quinnipiac U. (ditto)
3. (tie) CNN/Time/Opinion Research (Obama +8)
InsiderAdvantage (ditto)
5. Public Policy Polling (Obama +10)
6. ARG (Obama +7)
7. Marist U. (Obama +6)
8. Public Opinion Strategies (Obama +12)
9. Mason-Dixon (Obama +5)
10. (tie) Fairleigh Dickinson U. (Obama +4)
National Journal/FD (ditto)
Rasmussen (ditto)
Suffolk U. (ditto)

Connecticut - McCain 38%, Obama 61% (Obama +23)
1. U. of Connecticut (Obama +25)
2. Rasmussen (Obama +17)

Delaware - McCain 37%, Obama 62% (Obama +25)
1. SurveyUSA (Obama +30)
2. West Chester U. (Obama +18)
3. Rasmussen (Obama +15)

Florida - McCain 48%, Obama 51% (Obama +3)
1. (tie) Research2000 (Obama +3)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
3. (tie) AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +2)
Mason-Dixon (ditto)
Public Policy Polling (ditto)
Quinnipiac U. (ditto)
Strategic Vision (ditto)
8. (tie) ARG (Obama +4)
CNN/Time/Opinion Research (ditto)
FL Chamber of Commerce (ditto)
National Journal/FD (ditto)
12. (tie) Fairleigh Dickinson U. (Obama +1)
Insider Advantage (ditto)
Zogby (ditto)
15. Suffolk (Obama +5)
16. (tie) Datamar (McCain +1)
Rasmussen (ditto)
18. (tie) LATimes/Bloomberg (Obama +7)
St. Petersburg Times/Schroth, Eldon & Associates (ditto)

Georgia - McCain 52%, Obama 47% (McCain +5)
1. (tie) CNN/Time/Opinion Research (McCain +5)
Rasmussen (ditto)
3. Mason-Dixon (McCain +6)
4. Strategic Vision (McCain +4)
5. SurveyUSA (McCain +7)
6. Research2000 (McCain +3)
7. Public Policy Polling (McCain +2)
8. Insider Advantage (McCain +1)

Hawaii - McCain 27%, Obama 72% (Obama +45)
(last poll - 9/23) Rasmussen (Obama +41)

Idaho - McCain 61%, Obama 36% (McCain +29)
(last poll - 9/17) Daily Kos/R2K (McCain +29)

Illinois - McCain 37%, Obama 62% (Obama +25)
1. (tie) Chicago Tribune/Market Shares (Obama +24)
Research2000 (ditto)
3. Rasmussen (Obama +22)
4. U. of Wisconsin (Big10BG) (Obama +29)

Indiana - McCain 49%, Obama 50% (Obama +1)
1. (tie) IndyStar/Selzer (Obama +1)
Public Policy Polling (Obama +1)
3. (tie) ARG (Push)
Research2000 (Push)
SurveyUSA (Push)
6. Howey Gauge (McCain +2)
7. Rasmussen (McCain +3)
8. (tie) CNN/Time/Opinion Research (McCain +5)
Mason-Dixon (McCain +5)
Zogby (McCain +5)
11. U. of Wisconsin (Big10BG) (Obama +10)

Iowa - McCain 44%, Obama 54% (Obama +10)
1. Marist (Obama +10)
2. Mason-Dixon (Obama +11)
3. Rasmussen (Obama +8)
4. U. of Wisconsin (Big10BG) (Obama +13)
5. Research 2000 (Obama +14)
6. SurveyUSA (Obama +15)
7. Des Moines Register/Selzer (Obama +17)

Kansas - McCain 57%, Obama 42% (McCain +15)
1. Rasmussen (McCain +13)
2. SurveyUSA (McCain +21)

Kentucky - McCain 57%, Obama 41% (McCain +16)
1. SurveyUSA (McCain +16)
2. Research2000 (McCain +17)
3. Rasmussen (McCain +12)
4. Mason-Dixon (McCain +9)

Louisiana - McCain 59%, Obama 40% (McCain +19)
1. Rasmussen (McCain +16)
2. SE Louisiana U. (McCain +13)
3. WWL-TV (McCain +3)

Maine - McCain 40%, Obama 58% (Obama +18)
1. (tie) Research2000 (Obama +15)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
3. Critical Insights (Obama +21)
4. Rasmussen (Obama +13)
5. Pan Atlantic SMS Research (Obama +12)

Maryland - McCain 36%, Obama 62% (Obama +26)
(last poll - 9/20) Rasmussen (Obama +23)

Massachusetts - McCain 36%, Obama 62% (Obama +26)
1. Rasmussen (Obama +28)
2. Suffolk U. (Obama +19)
3. SurveyUSA (Obama +17)

Michigan - McCain 41%, Obama 57% (Obama +16)
1. (tie) Detroit Free Press/Selzer (Obama +16)
Mitchell Research (ditto)
Quinnipiac U. (ditto)
4. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Obama +13)
Strategic Vision (ditto)
6. (tie) Michigan State U. (Obama +12)
EPIC/MRI (ditto)
8. U. of Wisconsin (Big10BG) (Obama +22)
9. Rasmussen (Obama +10)
10. Rossman Group/MIRS (Obama +5)

Minnesota - McCain 44%, Obama 54% (Obama +10)
1. National Journal/FD (Obama +10)
2. (tie) Quinnipiac U. (Obama +11)
StarTribune/Princeton Research (ditto)
4. Rasmussen (Obama +12)
5. Mason-Dixon (Obama +8)
6. Research2000 (Obama +15)
7. St. Cloud U. (Obama +5)
8. Public Policy Polling (Obama +16)
9. SurveyUSA (Obama +3)
10. (tie) Hubert H. Humphrey Institute (Obama +19)
U. of Wisconsin (Big10BG) (ditto)
12. ARG (Obama +1)

Mississippi - McCain 56%, Obama 43% (McCain +13)
1. (tie) Research2000 (Obama +13)
U. of Southern Alabama (ditto)
3. Rasmussen (Obama +8)

Missouri - McCain 49%, Obama 49% (Push - w/McCain win)
1. (tie) ARG (Push)
Rasmussen (ditto)
Public Policy Polling (ditto)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
Zogby (ditto)
6. (tie) Mason-Dixon (McCain +1)
Suffolk U. (ditto)
8. Research2000 (Obama +1)
9. CNN/Time/Opinion Research (McCain +2)
10. Insider Advantage (McCain +3)

Montana - McCain 49%, Obama 47% (McCain +2)
1. ARG (McCain +3)
2. (tie) Mason-Dixon (McCain +4)
Rasmussen (ditto)
Research2000 (McCain +4)
5. Public Policy Polling (Obama +1)
6. Montana State U. (Obama +4)

Nebraska - McCain 57%, Obama 42% (McCain +15)
(last poll - 9/30) Rasmussen (McCain +19)

Nevada - McCain 43%, Obama 55% (Obama +12)
1. AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +12)
2. Zogby (Obama +11)
3. Suffolk U. (Obama +10)
4. CNN/Time (Obama +7)
5. (tie) ARG (Obama +5)
Research2000 (ditto)
7. (tie) Mason-Dixon (Obama +4)
Public Policy Polling (ditto)
Rasmussen (ditto)
10. Insider Advantage (Push)

New Hampshire - McCain 45%, Obama 54% (Obama +9)
1. Strategic Vision (Obama +9)
2. CNN/Time/Opinion Research (Obama +8)
3. (tie) Mason-Dixon (Obama +11)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
U. of New Hampshire (ditto)
6. Research2000 (Obama +7)
7. Suffolk U. (Obama +13)
8. Marist (Obama +5)
9. Rasmussen (Obama +4)
10. ARG (Obama +15)
11. AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +18)

New Jersey - McCain 42%, Obama 57% (Obama +15)
1. (tie) Rasmussen (Obama +15)
Strategic Vision (ditto)
3. Research2000 (Obama +16)
4. Marist (Obama +17)
5. Fairleigh Dickinson U. (Obama +18)
6. SurveyUSA (Obama +10)
7. Monmouth U. (Obama +21)
8. ARG (Obama +9)
9. Quinnipiac U. (Obama +23)

New Mexico - McCain 42%, Obama 57% (Obama +15)
1. Public Policy Polling (Obama +17)
2. Rasmussen (Obama +10)
3. SurveyUSA (Obama +7)
4. ABQ Journal/Research & Polling Inc. (Obama +5)

New York - McCain 36%, Obama 63% (Obama +27)
1. SurveyUSA (Obama +29)
2. Siena U. (Obama +31)
3. Rasmussen (Obama +20)
4. Marist (Obama +36)

North Carolina - McCain 49%, Obama 50% (Obama +1)
1. (tie) ARG (Obama +1)
Civitas Research (Obama +1)
Public Policy Polling (Obama +1)
Winthrop U./ETV (Obama +1)
5. Insider Advantage (Push)
6. (tie) AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +2)
Research2000 (ditto)
WSOC-TV (ditto)
9. (tie) Rasmussen (McCain +1)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
Zogby (ditto)
12. National Journal/FD (Obama +4)
13. Mason-Dixon (McCain +3)
14. CNN/Time (Obama +6)

North Dakota - McCain 53%, Obama 44% (McCain +9)
1. Research2000 (McCain +1)
2. Minnesota State U. Moorhead (Obama +2)
3. North Dakota UTU (Obama +3)

Ohio - McCain 47%, Obama 51% (Obama +4)
1. CNN/Time/Opinion Research (Obama +4)
2. (tie) ARG (Obama +3)
Marist (ditto)
4. (tie) ABC/WP/TNS Intersearch (Obama +6)
Columbus Dispatch (ditto)
U. of Cincinnati (ditto)
7. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Obama +2)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
Zogby (ditto)
10. (tie) AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +7)
Fairleigh Dickinson U. (ditto)
National Journal/FD (ditto)
Quinnipiac U. (ditto)
14. Rasmussen (Push)
15. (tie) LA Times/Bloomberg (Obama +9)
Suffolk U. (ditto)
17. Insider Advantage (Obama +10)
18. (tie) Mason-Dixon (McCain +2)
Strategic Vision (ditto)
20. U. of Wisconsin (Obama +12)

Oklahoma - McCain 66%, Obama 34% (McCain +32)
1. TVPoll (McCain +31)
2. SurveyUSA (McCain +29)

Oregon - McCain 40%, Obama 57% (Obama +17)
1. Research2000 (Obama +16)
2. Public Policy Polling (Obama +15)
3. Portland Tribune/KOIN/Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall (Obama +19)
4. SurveyUSA (Obama +19)
5. Riley Research (Obama +14)
6. Rasmussen (Obama +12)
« Last Edit: December 30, 2008, 07:04:22 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2008, 02:12:35 pm »
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Pennsylvania - McCain 44%, Obama 54% (Obama +10)
1. (tie) National Journal/FD (Obama +10)
Quinnipiac U. (ditto)
U. of Wisconsin (Big10BG) (ditto)
West Chester U. (ditto)
Zogby (ditto)
6. (tie) Insider Advantage (Obama +9)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
Temple U. (ditto)
9. (tie) AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +12)
CNN/Time (ditto)
Franklin and Marshall College (ditto)
12. (tie) Public Policy Polling (Obama +8)
Susquehanna Polling & Research (ditto)
14. Strategic Vision (Obama +7)
15. Marist (Obama +14)
16. (tie) ARG (Obama +6)
Muhlenberg College (ditto)
Rasmussen (ditto)
19. Mason-Dixon (Obama +4)

Rhode Island - McCain 35%, Obama 63% (Obama +28)
(last poll - 9/13) Rasmussen (Obama +19)

South Carolina - McCain 54%, Obama 45% (McCain +9)
1. SurveyUSA (McCain +8)
2. (tie) NBC/Princeton Research (McCain +11)
Rasmussen (McCain +11)
4. Winthrop/ETV (McCain +20)

South Dakota - McCain 53%, Obama 45% (McCain +8)
1. (tie) Rasmussen (McCain +9)
Research2000 (McCain +9)
3. Mason-Dixon (McCain +7)

Tennessee - McCain 57%, Obama 42% (McCain +15)
1. Research2000 (McCain +16)
2. Rasmussen (McCain +12)

Texas - McCain 55%, Obama 44% (McCain +11)
1. U. of Texas (McCain +11)
2. Research2000 (McCain +12)
3. Rasmussen (McCain +10)
4. ARG (McCain +19)

Utah - McCain 62%, Obama 34% (McCain +28)
1. Dan Jones (McCain +25)
2. Mason-Dixon (McCain +23)

Vermont - McCain 30%, Obama 67% (Obama +37)
1. Rasmussen (Obama +33)
2. Research2000 (Obama +21)

Virginia McCain 46%, Obama 53% (Obama +7)
1. (tie) AP/GfK/Roper (Obama +7)
Zogby (ditto)
3. (tie) Christopher Newport U. (Obama +6)
Public Policy Polling (ditto)
5. ABC/WP/TNS Intersearch (Obama +8)
6. (tie) CNN/Time (Obama +9)
Roanoke College (ditto)
8. (tie) ARG (Obama +4)
Fairleigh Dickinson U. (ditto)
Marist (ditto)
National Journal/FD (ditto)
Rasmussen (ditto)
SurveyUSA (ditto)
14. Mason-Dixon (Obama +3)
15. Virginia Commonwealth U. (Obama +11)
16. Suffolk U. (Obama +12)
17. Winthrop/ETV (Obama +1)
18. Datamar (McCain +5)

Washington - McCain 40%, Obama 57% (Obama +17)
1. SurveyUSA (Obama +16)
2. Elway Poll (Obama +19)
3. Strategic Vision (Obama +15)
4. Washington Poll (Obama +12)
5. Rasmussen (Obama +11)

West Virginia - McCain 56%, Obama 43% (McCain +13)
1. Public Policy Polling (McCain +13)
2. ARG (McCain +11)
3. Zogby (McCain +10)
4. (tie) CNN/Time (McCain +9)
Rasmussen (ditto)
6. (tie) Mason-Dixon (McCain +6)
Orion Strategies/West Virginia Wesleyan College (ditto)
Research2000 (ditto)
9. Insider Advantage (McCain +2)

Wisconsin - McCain 42%, Obama 56% (Obama +14)
1. (tie) National Journal/FD (Obama +13)
St. Norbert College (ditto)
Strategic Vision (ditto)
4. Mason-Dixon (Obama +12)
5. SurveyUSA (Obama +16)
6. Research2000 (Obama +11)
7. Quinnipiac U. (Obama +17)
8. U. of Wisconsin (Obama +10)
9. Rasmussen (Obama +7)
10. CNN/Time (Obama +5)

Wyoming - McCain 65%, Obama 33% (McCain +32)
1. Mason-Dixon (McCain +26)
2. Research2000 (McCain +23)
3. SurveyUSA (McCain +210
« Last Edit: December 30, 2008, 07:02:02 pm by Sam Spade »Logged
Sam Spade
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2008, 07:03:49 pm »
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bump - finally completed.

The first statistic that strikes out at me is the strong performance by a lot of garbage pollsters in the past in certain places (especially the unis).  I'm pretty sure I know the reason why this occurred, but I want to make precisely sure.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2008, 07:25:07 pm »
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Mississippi - McCain 56%, Obama 43% (McCain +13)
1. (tie) Research2000 (Obama +13)
U. of Southern Alabama (ditto)
3. Rasmussen (Obama +8)
Seriously?
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Gov. Christopher J. Christie
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2008, 08:26:52 pm »
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Rasmussen (R). Tongue
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Nym90
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« Reply #5 on: January 01, 2009, 11:50:39 am »
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bump - finally completed.

The first statistic that strikes out at me is the strong performance by a lot of garbage pollsters in the past in certain places (especially the unis).  I'm pretty sure I know the reason why this occurred, but I want to make precisely sure.

True. Also, Mason-Dixon seems to be the gold standard no more....they were too Republican in most states.
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« Reply #6 on: January 01, 2009, 11:13:32 pm »
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Rasmussen (R). Tongue

Rasmussen's state by state polling really was terrible this year. Maybe he should have stopped worrying about flaunting his polls on Hannity's show every week and spend more time improving his polling methodology and techniques.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2009, 11:41:39 pm by Office of the President-Elect »Logged
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #7 on: January 01, 2009, 11:22:41 pm »
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bump - finally completed.

The first statistic that strikes out at me is the strong performance by a lot of garbage pollsters in the past in certain places (especially the unis).  I'm pretty sure I know the reason why this occurred, but I want to make precisely sure.

True. Also, Mason-Dixon seems to be the gold standard no more....they were too Republican in most states.

They also fluctuated inexplicably during the year.  This is the second not-great (not-good really) cycle for M-D, way lame.
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n/c
Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: January 03, 2009, 12:18:48 am »
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bump - finally completed.

The first statistic that strikes out at me is the strong performance by a lot of garbage pollsters in the past in certain places (especially the unis).  I'm pretty sure I know the reason why this occurred, but I want to make precisely sure.

True. Also, Mason-Dixon seems to be the gold standard no more....they were too Republican in most states.

They also fluctuated inexplicably during the year.  This is the second not-great (not-good really) cycle for M-D, way lame.

Yep, all around.

My presupposition is that it all has to do 1) with turnout models and 2) loose LV screens that actually work when the loose LVs actually vote in high numbers (and work even more when voters who normally pass through the LV screen don't show).

I still think, fundamentally, that 2006 is all about late-moving undecideds, but I may want to reassess that just slightly (even though SUSA's (which is the best pollster to test this theory) relative performance in both elections would seem to back up the theory of late-moving undecideds in 2006 and turnout model/LV screen changes in 2008)

The danger, naturally, is that if I'm right AND the pollsters change the turnout models to reflect 2008 (they are unlikely to change the LV screens probably), we could see unis skewing more Democratic than they do during an normal election cycle,especially midterms (and actually all polls could start skewing too Democratic).

We did actually see a bit of that in the Georgia runoff (I noted it when I saw the black % PPP and Daily Kos were using), even though as a reminder, runoff polling is highly faulty.
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