CO-PPP: Democrats likely to retain Senate seat in 2010

[Tender Branson]

John Hickenlooper (D) - 54%
Bill Owens (R) - 40%

John Hickenlooper (D) - 54%
Tom Tancredo (R) - 37%

John Salazar (D) - 52%
Bill Owens (R) - 43%

John Salazar (D) - 53%
Tom Tancredo (R) - 40%

In each of the four possible contests the Democrat has at least a 19 point edge among
independents, and wins 16% or more of the Republican vote.

PPP surveyed 712 Colorado voters on December 16th and 17th. The survey’s margin of
error is +/-3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_1219.pdf

[Ronnie]

Colorado = blue state

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, I was not expecting Owens to poll that badly.

[Lief]

Wow. Colorado is awesome.

Also, I hope this helps put to bed the "Salazar would be more electable because he's a DINO" nonsense.

[Sibboleth]

Utterly meaningless this far out.

[TheresNoMoney]

I hope Ritter doesn't appoint Salazar.

[Senator Ben]

Utterly meaningless this far out.

[MSUfan]

Hickenlooper is obviously the best choice, by far.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I hope Ritter doesn't appoint Salazar.

Doubtful, as Salazar the Elder got a seat on the Appropriations Committee.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Utterly meaningless this far out.

Although a pretty impressive reflection in political change there, since races in Colorado seem a lot more likely to drift from R to D than vice-versa.

[Lunar]

Utterly meaningless this far out.

DISAGREE

SAFE DEM


GOP - these aren't the d......

[Torie]

Owens and Tancredo are weak candidates for the GOP.  Maybe a better prospect will appear from over the horizon.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Owens and Tancredo are weak candidates for the GOP.  Maybe a better prospect will appear from over the horizon.

Tancredo is weak but Owens I think us being underated by this poll. But yes maybe someone less known like a Scott McInnis would be better.

[Aizen]

Owens is not a strong candidate. He also won't be running so the point is moot anyway.

[blagohair.com]

According to this poll, both Hickenlooper and John Salazar are outperforming Ken Salazar against GOP potential nominees.

Federico Pena (Clinton's secretary of Transportation, Denver mayor and member of Obama's transition team) withdrew his name from consideration.

Finally, according to a poll by ProgressNowAction, these are the people's favorites for Salazar's seat:


. Andrew Romanoff
2. Diana DeGette
3. John Hickenlooper
4. Ed Perlmutter
5. John Salazar
6. Federico Peña
7. Alice Madden
8. Mike Miles *
9. Joan Fitz-Gerald *
10. Peter Groff
11. Bernie Buescher
12. Tom Strickland
13. Bill Ritter
14. Cary Kennedy
15. Michael Bennet
16. Bob Schaffer *
17. Jared Polis *
18. Ken Gordon *

[Former Moderate]

Winning in Colorado is all about turnout and not so much about playing to the indies.  The GOP is in decent shape to win here if they can nominate someone credible.  (Big "if.")

[Lunar]

I was typing up a reply but I figure I'll just post a thread so everyone knows what's going on for the GOP side of Colorado at the moment

[Aizen]

Winning in Colorado is all about turnout and not so much about playing to the indies.  The GOP is in decent shape to win here if they can nominate someone credible.  (Big "if.")

That was true in 2002 but it doesn't really hold water anymore. Colorado is looking to go the way of Washington and Oregon with Republican registration advantage shrinking at a significant rate. In fact, Independents have already surpassed Republicans. That means Indies ARE important and a moderate Republican is needed to win. Fundies cannot win here anymore. Those days are over in Colorado. The problem is that the Republicans in Colorado will probably not nominate a moderate. Whatever. It's their funeral.

[Former Moderate]

Winning in Colorado is all about turnout and not so much about playing to the indies.  The GOP is in decent shape to win here if they can nominate someone credible.  (Big "if.")

That was true in 2002 but it doesn't really hold water anymore. Colorado is looking to go the way of Washington and Oregon with Republican registration advantage shrinking at a significant rate. In fact, Independents have already surpassed Republicans. That means Indies ARE important and a moderate Republican is needed to win. Fundies cannot win here anymore. Those days are over in Colorado. The problem is that the Republicans in Colorado will probably not nominate a moderate. Whatever. It's their funeral.

I do not yet see evidence that the boost in Democratic registration reflects a permanent boost in Democratic self-identification (we need more than one data point), and further, a solid number of those new registrants wouldn't be caught dead wasting their time voting in a midterm election.