Germany Close to Collapse.

[Psychic Octopus]

I Heard Germany's economy is supposed to contract by 3.5% to 5% next year.

[Sensei]

source or it didn't happen

[Keystone Phil]

If true, it was nice knowing you, Angela.

[Tender Branson]

The current worst case scenario predicted in some newspapers is -3.5%, but most experts think it will decline by about 1.5-2.5% ...

Similar to US numbers ...

Germany is probably hit harder because they are much more foreign trade dependent than the US economy.

If true, it was nice knowing you, Angela.

There's no indication as of now that the CDU will lose next year, the SPD is running at least 10% behind in the polls ...

[Keystone Phil]

There's no indication as of now that the CDU will lose next year, the SPD is running at least 10% behind in the polls ...

I just figured that a collapse would doom the incumbent party...unless the SPD is really that bad.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

In case you hadn't noticed, the world economy isn't doing so hot right now.

[Tender Branson]

There's no indication as of now that the CDU will lose next year, the SPD is running at least 10% behind in the polls ...

I just figured that a collapse would doom the incumbent party...unless the SPD is really that bad.

It's very hard for the SPD to win when you have 2 rivals on the Center-Left, contrary to 2 parties on the Center-Right (CDU-FDP). Unless the 3 Center-Left parties get 55% because of the economy, it's unlikely that the SPD will win. But Steinmeier can still bring the SPD closer to the CDU and nobody will remember Ypsilanti next September.

[minionofmidas]

There's no indication as of now that the CDU will lose next year, the SPD is running at least 10% behind in the polls ...

I just figured that a collapse would doom the incumbent party...unless the SPD is really that bad.

The SPD is the incumbent party as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I Heard Germany's economy is supposed to contract by 3.5% to 5% next year.

That wouldn't actually be a collapse you know...

[Keystone Phil]

There's no indication as of now that the CDU will lose next year, the SPD is running at least 10% behind in the polls ...

I just figured that a collapse would doom the incumbent party...unless the SPD is really that bad.

The SPD is the incumbent party as well.

Oh, yes, that's right. I forgot about that. Thanks.

[jamestroll]

Merkel will win.

texaslefty and I may go into a panic attack if she loses!

[Franzl]

As far as anyone can predict right now....she should definitely remain in power....it's not clear if that'll be in the context of a grand coalition or a CDU/FDP coalition, though.

[minionofmidas]

For 1ce, we agree 100per cent.

[12th Doctor]

Well... let the good times roll

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I Heard Germany's economy is supposed to contract by 3.5% to 5% next year.

That wouldn't actually be a collapse you know...

Yeah. That's not even a depression by InTrade's standards.

[Sensei]

Merkel will win.

texaslefty and I may go into a panic attack if she loses!

as opposed to what?

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I Heard Germany's economy is supposed to contract by 3.5% to 5% next year.

You call that a collapse? This is an economic collapse. (Bearing in mind the effect the Treaty of Versailles had on the Weimar Republic and her economy after it was signed in June 1919).

[Michael Z]

3.5% to 5% contraction doesn't suggest a collapse, even a near-collapse, but the German figures are bad because they're the only ones who are honest enough about the current situation, unlike their English-speaking counterparts who have turned sweeping things under the carpet until the carpet can no longer hold the size before it explodes under the strain, culminating into sh**t flying all over the f***ing fan into a comedy art form, except it's neither funny nor artful. If anything, Germany will probably be least worse off because as opposed to some countries they aren't sitting on mountains of debt.

But of course, you're right, except contraction is merely the beginning. We're on the verge of collapse, and that goes for most, perhaps all western countries. Commodity prices are rising, stock markets are falling, the cost of living versus average salaries is increasing, unemployment is rising and our financial systems are falling off the edge, which means recession, probably of epic proportions, global and intractable because for the first time in history we face exponential demand from developing countries alongside increasing environmental degradation and shortages of essential material resources.

In turn this means unprecedented social disruption and the acute socio-economic marginalisation of millions of people. If you think things are bad now, just wait another few years.

[Tender Branson]

3.5% to 5% contraction doesn't suggest a collapse, even a near-collapse, but the German figures are bad because they're the only ones who are honest enough about the current situation, unlike their English-speaking counterparts who have turned sweeping things under the carpet until the carpet can no longer hold the size before it explodes under the strain, culminating into sh**t flying all over the f***ing fan into a comedy art form, except it's neither funny nor artful. If anything, Germany will probably be least worse off because as opposed to some countries they aren't sitting on mountains of debt.

Enter BBC News Report a few hours ago on the UK economy:

"The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) predicts the economy will shrink by 2.9% in 2009 - more than at any time since the 1940s."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7799886.stm

[Tender Branson]

This year, the US Economy may actually shrink by a faster margin than the German economy:

The Institute DIW in Berlin estimates that the German GDP will decrease by 1.1%, while it estimates a decrease of 2.0% for the US, similar numbers of what the US Congressional Budget Office estimated in their release yesterday (-2.2%).

http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/93009/09-1-1.pdf

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-Outlook.pdf

[Sam Spade]

Remember:  We have it bad, the rest of the world has it worse.

Sure, GDP contraction is really, really bad and what-not, but it's not the key event on the event horizon.  And it's much more likely to initiate in GB or Europe before here.

[Pravda]

I for one am expecting Bavaria to secede and the German High Sees fleet to make one last glorious stand against the Royal Navy and be utterly destroyed.

[GeorgianGurl]

can we have a "delete account" button please?

[jaichind]

From Bloomberg Poll of Investers

Right now, are you more optimistic or more pessimistic about the policies of the following leaders as they affect the investment climate in their respective countries: (Rotate list.)
                                                        Optimistic Pessimistic Have No Idea
Barack Obama in the United States            46         50                  4
David Cameron in the United Kingdom        39        38                 23
Angela Merkel in Germany                         64        27                   9
François Hollande in France                        11        76                  13
Xi Jinping, leader of the CCP                      55        22                   23
Shinzo Abe of Japan                                 54         27                  19
 
Seems Merkel and Xi are the highest rated and Hollande the worst rated followed by Obama.  I agree that Merkel was too busy putting out fires in EU and in the meantime some of the fundementals in Germany are not looking as good.  But France with its policies under Hollande is way worse. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh no, we're doomed.

DOOMED!