Bobby Jindal and George Allen

[Neinrein]

I'm one of the fortunate people that, due to location recieves the news of my own city on Channel 13 as well as of the cities that are 60 miles in either direction. I also have the ability to get three states worth of newspapers at the market and I can easily listen to four states worth of radio.

So, as someone who does go across the Pearl River at times and does business and who gets news from west of the Pearl I can't help but find all of this Jindal for President talk at the very least premature. They hold their elections when we do, next election being 2011. He can't simultaneously run for re-election and for the Presidency. He'll have to choose because Louisiana still has open primaries in state races and so if he runs for both he will draw an opponent from his own party in addition to any Democratic opponents he'd have.

So, even if he decides to run for re-election which I suspect will be his calculation because I believe Barbour made the same calculation a year ago, the problem then becomes his re-election. I see people talk about him on here saying firmly "he'll wait until 2016". That takes for granted he'll be re-elected. I'll go ahead and say this. If John Breaux qualifies for residency for 2011 and decides he wants to be governor, it's his. Nothing Bobby Jindal could do would allow him to beat John Breaux. They revere Breaux in Louisiana the way that this state used to revere Stennis and now reveres Cochran. If Breaux runs, Jindal is cooked. As for the Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana, I kind of think he'd be more well served by running for Mayor of New Orleans because I do think the next mayor there will be white, and he's got the name for it. One thing to his credit is that he managed to put a strong whipping on the guy who sang "Queen of My Doublewide Trailer" and Louisiana has elected a country singer to office before.

I do think if he did run, he would also be able to give Jindal competition because he and Jindal represent the same geographic base in Louisiana, and because he has the added bonus in much of Louisiana of being "the white guy who ran against Nagin". As someone who was in New Orleans a few decades ago, I can tell you the main reason that people would say that didn't like the Landrieus was because of this assumption that "they turned New Orleans over to the blacks" and then would follow it with a rumor that is not worth repeating here.

In addition to these guys, there are a fair number of Democratic politicians in that state that could make for a very competitive run. It's also important to note that Jindal's numbers never improved that much in the part of the state that voted against him in 2003 because he was Indian. His numbers improved in the New Orleans area, that's about it. If someone from New Orleans or the Cajun areas ran against him I think he could be in real trouble, especially because he has to manage the state as the economy goes down and if you don't think that can hurt him, one of the main reasons Mississippi elected our first Republican governor since Reconstruction was because 1991 was a bad year economically and because Mabus was the first governor running for re-election since Reconstruction. Mississippians weren't ready to re-elect someone because they didn't understand the meaning of that term, and not when the economy of most of the state was falling flat.


I say all of this because all this talk of Bobby Jindal reminds me of what everyone was saying of George Allen a few years ago. Everyone assumed George Allen was going to run for President. His name was trumpted in all sorts of media. He couldn't even win re-election. It seems to me that everyone is jumping the gun on this Jindal thing and I honestly don't think they would be if he were Bobby Fontenot or Bobby Smith. When I see him, I see shades of George Allen. Am I the only one who thinks that people may be jumping the gun on him when he hasn't even prove he can win re-election which is an important question given the state of the economy especially considering that Louisiana's economy is based on a few things, all of which are crashing right now

[DownWithTheLeft]

Yeah, no, Breaux would not beat Jindal

[Ronnie]

1) Breaux won't challenge Jindal
2) Jindal would win anyway

Plus, you can't compare George Allen to Jindal.  George Allen was poised to win reelection in a landslide, but lost due to "macaca".  Jindal's gubernatorial approval ratings are among the highest in the country, and unless there is some huge scandal, he should win reelection in a breeze.

[Neinrein]

Yeah, no, Breaux would not beat Jindal

And you base this on what? Jindal doesn't have a natural base in that state. He's lucky, he's an idea man but idea men typically fall flat in Louisiana and Breaux would take away the Cajun part of the state from Jindal, would run well in Southeast Louisiana and Jindal has yet to win a majority of the vote in the Bible Belt part of the state.

And approval ratings are an interesting thing. We're at about right now on the timeline where Bush was in his first term and I seem to remember him having high approval ratings. I have had the opportunity to actually get local news on Bobby Jindal for close to a decade, and nothing impresses me about him, nothing at all. He was promoted entirely because his ethnicity is a novelty and the Louisiana GOP at the time was concerned about the "blackening" of the state and wanted a nice minority candidate

Now I agree, Breaux would need a reason to run, but don't be so sure he wouldn't consider doing it. He is still the man who can do no wrong in Louisiana and you all have seem to have forgotten that the economy of Louisiana is based on a few things. Basically, it is a state run by sugar, oil, tourism and finance. Sugar prices are only going to collapse with all agricultural prices during this crisis, oil has collapsed and if it doesn't come back soon they will start cutting back on personnel, tourism you can just forget about it, and finance, I don't even need to repeat that finance is cutting back. I also forgot shipping and I suspect international trade to be hit hard, and many logistics companies are readying their first wave of layoffs.

Approval ratings are not a monolithic thing. If you were to go on Haley Barbour's approval ratings at this time in 2004, then Mississippi would have a Democratic governor because the state budget had a 700 million dollar shortfall and that whole process led to his approval ratings dropping to the mid 30s. Hurricane Katrina saved Haley Barbour. It saved him because apparently he did have inherent leadership ability and it showed then. That's all Jindal's election was, the belief he would have handled Katrina better than Blanco, which without a doubt he would. When looking to deal with natural disasters you don't put 70 year old women in charge of it. It was also the year where the Louisiana Democrats didn't put up any serious opposition. The good candidates simply didn't go for it. A good candidate probably would have taken Jindal into a runoff and could have possibly beaten him in it.

It's simply too early to begin talking about him as presidential material, especially considering the political fight that will break out over redistricting because the Democrats will rightly want to redistrict more seats to Baton Rouge because of population shifts, and New Orleans of course, I don't know if they've realized that smaller whiter city means they do have to give up seats in the legislature. 2011 redistricting will be the big political fight, and if they don't do it before the election then that means the election will determine meaning the Democrats are going to find the best possible opponent to take on Jindal because as long as New Orleans has an over abundance of seats, the risk of the legislature going Republican with the black population gone is very real, and if that happens with a Republican governor, you can begin to kiss the Democrats in the state goodbye. They have to maintain the legislature to maintain power.

But don't listen to me, I only get New Orleans media at home and I only do business in the state. Certainly I can't know more than all of the media commentors who don't actually live in this part of the world and have no experience in it

[Neinrein]

1) Breaux won't challenge Jindal
2) Jindal would win anyway

Plus, you can't compare George Allen to Jindal.  George Allen was poised to win reelection in a landslide, but lost due to "macaca".  Jindal's gubernatorial approval ratings are among the highest in the country, and unless there is some huge scandal, he should win reelection in a breeze.

I doubt macaca alone killed him. It may have helped a little, but if he had really been that strong of a candidate he would have still held on. And you're underestimating Breaux because as I've said before. Breaux actually has an ethnic, geographic base in the state. Jindal sort of has the New Orleans suburbs, but Breaux immediately brings in the same geographic base as Blanco had in 2003, he has far better approval ratings and worship levels, and Jindal remains chronically weak in Protestant northern Louisiana.

Breaux would have beaten him by 10 points or more in 2007, and if he ran in 2011, he could still win narrowly, and if the Louisiana economy does what I expect it to do based on current trends, Jindal will have a hard time holding on to office. In 1991, Mabus was blamed for the economy. We shouldn't have changed that law but we did, so Fordice gets elected. In 1983, Louisiana was blaming Treen for the sudden collapse of oil. In 1987, they blamed Edwards. The economy still being lousy in 1991, Roemer was out and Edwards was back. Louisiana's economy leveled off from desperation levels in the 90s and actually improved and it has seen noted improvement this decade, but the problem is, all of Louisiana's industries are collapsing and it is a state that is so dependent on international trade which is about to level off.


I'm saying, no one who knows Louisiana is taking it for granted 2011. Especially with the political control of the state for maybe a generation possibly being on the line

[justfollowingtheelections]

You have a better picture of Louisiana politics than I do, so you're probably right when you say that he doesn't have a natural base, but statistically speaking, I would say that it's highly unlikely an incumbent with favorable approval ratings will lose the elections.

[Ronnie]

@Neinrein:

First of all, look at George Allen margin of loss.  He barely lost, and you have to understand that this was completely due do "macaca".  If Webb won by 10 points or so, I would agree with you, but it's not the case.

Secondly, Breaux would have to be pretty bold to challenge someone like Jindal, who perfectly handled Hurricane Gustav, and who is held with very high regards as a whole in the state of Louisiana.

Thirdly, Breaux has not been in office for a long time, and many Louisianans have likely forgotten about him.  The name "Bobby Jindal" and his likely successful gubernatorial term is much more fresh in the mind of Louisianans.  Plus, he is the incumbent, so he has that going for him.

[Bacon King]

Breaux could beat Jindal, but Breaux probably won't run.

[DownWithTheLeft]

At this point I get the feeling John Breaux = Tony Knowles

[Neinrein]

@Neinrein:

First of all, look at George Allen margin of loss.  He barely lost, and you have to understand that this was completely due do "macaca".  If Webb won by 10 points or so, I would agree with you, but it's not the case.

Secondly, Breaux would have to be pretty bold to challenge someone like Jindal, who perfectly handled Hurricane Gustav, and who is held with very high regards as a whole in the state of Louisiana.

Thirdly, Breaux has not been in office for a long time, and many Louisianans have likely forgotten about him.  The name "Bobby Jindal" and his likely successful gubernatorial term is much more fresh in the mind of Louisianans.  Plus, he is the incumbent, so he has that going for him.

Breaux only left the Senate in 2004. That's hardly a "long time." That's why I don't even live in the state, but was heavily invested in the Draft Breaux movement last year. Had residency not been a problem, there had been a 50/50 chance on him running because the state party wanted him to run desperately because he was from the Cajun area and he was the ultimate anti-Blanco.

Jindal avoided a runoff in 2007 because he improved his margins in the Cajun area. That's it, and there was a geographic split in all of the people that wanted to draw him into a runoff. There was no real unity in the thing. You also need to understand that Breaux and others, are all parts of the old Edwards clique. New Orleans was never really a part of it and tended to run people against it but in the Cajun area of the state, Edwards is viewed as the man who gave them political influence, political power. It's those guys who run the Louisiana legislature still.


And as I have said before and I need to keep repeating this. Redistricting is everything. Redistricting is up in Mississippi right now. Our senate is designed to be 28-24. It's currently 27-25 because of a turncoat and it will probably see more if Obama is a huge failure. It wouldn't take much of a district boundary shift to make it a 32-20 Republican body, wouldn't take much to make it 32-20 Democratic. Half of the blacks in the party want the 32-20 GOP option because in that option, every Democratic state senator would be black, not realizing if they allow the old white primary to come back and they remain Democrats, they remain politically kneecapped until they become the numerical majority in the state (and some of them want that, they want to force a race war when the state does turn)

Honestly, in scenario 32-20 GOP, I do leave the Democratic Party, as do most in my profession, just for career survival.

The point in all of this is, right now, there is a draft Mike Moore movement. We know Jim Hood can win any office he touches, but the preference is for him to run for Lt. Gov and for Moore to run for Gov, because that gives us the two top offices and could give an important tie breaker in the state senate.

There is no danger of the Mississippi House turning unless the white primary returns. There is a huge danger of the Louisiana legislature turning. In both houses, it's not many seats you have to pick up. Whatever Jindal's ambitions are, are dependent on the political machinations of Louisiana, and even though he is the flavor of the month right now, in a state like Louisiana where identity is so critical, Jindal will always be an outsider, with no base, who relies on the good faith of those who aren't his people to elect him. If he does anything to piss off any actual native bloc in the state, his career is toast because there is no one who will defend him solely on blood the way that all of the Cajuns including my relatives in LaFourche still defend Fast Eddie

[Bacon King]

By "white primary" do you mean a primary runoff?

[AndrewTX]

I'm lucky to live in an area where I get atleast 5 states in my local news. yay

[Psychic Octopus]

I'm lucky to live in an area where I get atleast 5 states in my local news. yay

I'm lucky to live an area where I get 1 state: California.

[phk]

I'm lucky to live in an area where I get atleast 5 states in my local news. yay

I'm lucky to live an area where I get 1 state: California.