Results of large cities

[minionofmidas]

Do you still have a list of what precincts are Scottsdale?

[Lephead]

I posted the maricopa chart with known city precincts here :

http://www.scribd.com/doc/18034053/2008-MARICOPA-AZ-Precinct-by-City

PRES is the total number of votes cast for Presidential candidates.
CITY is the total number of votes cast in the municipal election.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks, that's great.

[RBH]

Obama's 20 worst precincts in Philadelphia:
Ward 39 Division 14   : 25%
Ward 26 Division 3: 31%
Ward 63 Division 17   : 32%
Ward 57 Division 13   : 34%
Ward 66 Division 29   : 36%
Ward 26 Division 2: 37%
Ward 26 Division 15   : 37%
Ward 39 Division 41: 37%
Ward 56 Division 22   : 37%
Ward 39 Division 36   : 37%
Ward 26 Division 5: 37%
Ward 58 Division 4: 38%
Ward 65 Division 1: 38%
Ward 66 Division 25   : 38%
Ward 57 Division 22   : 39%
Ward 58 Division 21   : 39%
Ward 26 Division 6: 39%
Ward 48 Division 22   : 40%
Ward 26 Division 12   : 40%
Ward 26 Division 1: 40%

[Alcon]

Damn, only 25%?  What are some of those precincts, in basic terms?

Cool stuff.

[RBH]

The 39th Ward is in South Philly. W39D14 is south of I-76 and east of Broad Street, including Wachovia, CB Park, and Lincoln Financial.

The Vote total was 202-69 McCain with 8 Nader votes and 1 Barr vote.

26-3 is a neighborhood in South Philly. 63-17 is in NE Philly. 57-13 is also in NE Philly. 66-29 is on the border with Bucks County

[Lephead]

I added some more cities to my chart, mostly from Florida and Texas.  They are listed at the end of p.2.

[ajc0918]

Great thread. Cool stuff.

[nclib]

I added some more cities to my chart, mostly from Florida and Texas.  They are listed at the end of p.2.

Good work. I noticed that you have The Woodlands, Montgomery Co., Texas as almost 3-1 Obama. Haven't looked at any data there (other than the county totals), but I was under the impression that it was a very conservative area. Can you make sure it is not transposed. Thanks.

[Lephead]

NCLIB : Good work. I noticed that you have The Woodlands, Montgomery Co., Texas as almost 3-1 Obama.  Can you make sure it is not transposed. Thanks.

Thank you for pointing out this transposition.  Texas lists McCain first in all its precinct reports so I entered it as it was from the precinct results.  Like you say, this is the suburban republican heartland, and it was definitely 72% for McCain.

[Lephead]

Okay, I've slain the beast, I have attempted using precinct maps to determine Phoenix Arizona.  The surprise was that Obama's margin was not very big.
In my chart on scribd, I have entered the totals as : Obama 170934, McCain 155731
but they break down this way : precincts that are all in Phoenix or look like they'e
re mostly in Phoenix voted Obama 157104 McCain 147251; precincts that look particularly split voted : Obama 13830 McCain 8480.
The tragic part here is that only 335,000 people voted in Phoenix.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/13474955/2008-VOTE-FOR-PRESIDENT-Top-Cities

Next big city (well not any more) is Birmingham Alabama.  There is an election there so the city posted a list of polling places.  I was able to match up all but 8 to the Nov 2008 results.  Trying to find out those numbers.  Current vote for Obama : 86.6%

[minionofmidas]

Unsurprising:

The Republican 3rd and Democratic 4th district combined voted for Bush by ~14k IIRC (for Obama by a narrow margin). This includes the bulk of the city of Phoenix. It also includes the southern half of Glendale (in the fourth. Certainly less Democratic than the average of the 4th, but pretty sure it went for Kerry. The northern half of Glendale is in the 2nd and quite Republican), a lot of unincorporated land north of Phoenix in the third (heavily Republican) and some smaller corners of unincorporated land southwest of Phoenix (solidly Democratic) and the very small city of Guadalupe southeast of Phoenix (almost 80% Democratic in both 2004 and 2008. Higher turnout in 2008, though.) In balance, the part of Phoenix included in the two districts definitely voted for Bush. There are some small parts of Phoenix in the 5th and 7th districts, and these I think both voted for Kerry, but getting me to believe they're enough to flip the city will take convincing.

[cannonia]

Sacramento, CA:
Obama 120,961 (71.4%)
McCain 43,214 (25.5%)

Elk Grove, CA:
Obama 33,918 (57.2%)
McCain 23,858 (40.2%)

Elk Grove had a huge swing (and huge growth).  In 2004, it voted 24,659 to 21,293 for Bush.

[nclib]

Anyway, the cities worth checking out are Fort Worth (#17), Oklahoma City (#31), Mesa, Ariz. (#38) and Virginia Beach (#41, confirmed for McCain). Hard to imagine that Mesa didn't vote for McCain, either, and Fort Worth is probably more likely to have done so than Oklahoma City anyway. Of course, if Jacksonville (#12) did vote for McCain, the point is moot.

Has Phoenix been confirmed for Obama?

It voted decisively for Kerry, and Maricopa County swung slightly towards Obama, so I don't think it's worth checking.

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Hialeah is the only really big heavily Cuban city (other than Miami, of course). But I think it's fairly Democratic nonetheless. Would have to check, of course.

Hialeah might be the only city in Miami-Dade that McCain won.

Its just that the non-Cuban Hispanics are increasing in number and are way more Democratic than the Cubans.

According to Lephead's Florida page, cities in Miami-Dade with a pop. over 10,000 that McCain carried:
hialeah
coral gables
miami lakes
hialeah gardens
sweetwater
miami springs
key biscayne

Only Hialeah and Hialeah Gardens are majority Cuban.

[they don't love you like i love you]

For the record Rochester, Minnesota now has over 100k people. It voted:

Obama 53.56%
McCain 44.45%
Other 1.99%

Twin Cities:

St. Paul
Obama 75.58%
McCain 22.38%
Other 2.04%

Minneapolis
Obama 81.15%
McCain 16.77%
Other 2.09%