Does this scare you and remind you of Mao?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This only furthers my belief that the next four years will involve America going significantly off the boil again and ended in some disaster. I already have the Republicans winning in 2012.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This only furthers my belief that the next four years will involve America going significantly off the boil again and ended in some disaster. I already have the Republicans winning in 2012.

Patently ridiculous, and a lame-ass attempt at being 'against the grain'. Did the 1980's end in disaster for the Republicans, who had a much stronger cult of personality going at the time?

No: Logically you are correct. But I call this intitution (which has served me well in the past, moreso I admit in the results of football matches but I get this feeling. Trust me, no-one hates "OMG AIM SO DIFFERENT!1111" opinions more than me.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

This only furthers my belief that the next four years will involve America going significantly off the boil again and ended in some disaster. I already have the Republicans winning in 2012.

Patently ridiculous, and a lame-ass attempt at being 'against the grain'. Did the 1980's end in disaster for the Republicans, who had a much stronger cult of personality going at the time?

No: Logically you are correct. But I call this intitution.

The only possible (valid) rationale you can have is the idea that Obama will 'disappoint' his hardcore supporters; but, as well you ought to know, even if he fails to live up to any of his campaign promises, they'll happily swallow them and rationalize them away, just as Reagan's did when virtually none of his tax proposals got through his first few years.

Here you ignore the rather large differences in mentality between "typical dedicated liberal" and "typical dedicated conservative". Also if I can defend my irrational position with a rational point, there is still the declining economy and the Middle East. Okay those were issues in Reagan's time too, but they actually declined after a period of time (in terms of popular, public perception - which is the only thing that matters in terms of presidential popular politics.), we seem to starting a major recession and a Middle East is still a situation is search of an event. So who knows what the situation will be in 2012?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Again I don't necessarily disagree with what you say, Just I have a hunch otherwise. I do disagree with this:

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Will the expectations meet the reality? What if "events" mean that Obama has to act, surely he can't have a Clinton-like presidency where nothing really happens for 8 years (not true, but for the American public it was the case.)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Will the expectations meet the reality? What if "events" mean that Obama has to act, surely he can't have a Clinton-like presidency where nothing really happens for 8 years (not true, but for the American public it was the case.)

Then he'll have an opportunity to institute liberal reforms to issues where they are pertinent, as I believe he will, and I also believe the public will be generally amicable towards them.

There is nothing more difficult than instituting a new order of things*.

(* - not that I genuinely believe Obama's mantra about Change being anything really tangiable, however if the situation means he has to act and do things, will he make relatively conservative decisions or much more reformist ones. I believe he will do the former, but what if they don't work?)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Didn't Gully's "intuition" say that Hillary would win the nomination and then the Republicans win the presidency because of anti-Hillary hatred?

That was a guess (I did think that at one point, back after New Hampshire though I changed my tune quite quickly, I can't remember whether I posted it or not). This is a feeling.

Of course I'm quite happy to be proven wrong here.