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Author Topic: What's up with New Hampshire?  (Read 4947 times)
Reaganfan
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« on: December 24, 2008, 04:44:52 am »
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Bush won it in 2000, and nearly did again in 2004...yet this time McCain, clearly the best possible Republican candidate for New Hampshire, lost by 10 pts. He didn't win a single county. How can George Bush have outperformed John McCain in NH?

I think what happened is back in 2000, the media loved McCain because he was "Anti-Bush"...then they loved him all along until they realized "Wait a minute...he's going to be a REPUBLICAN President" and turned coat.
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« Reply #1 on: December 24, 2008, 05:39:41 am »
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Ah, another "why did McCain much worse than Bush, despite being the more popular/moderate/whatever politician?" thread. I guess it's the same answer as always: It was an election year which favored the Democrats. Especially after the financial crisis started. New Hampshire is a swing state, so it swung to the Democrats. Obama managed to win Ohio, Virginia, Indiana and North Carolina, so why shouldn't he win the state of New Hampshire in any other way than a landslide?

Aside from that, the effect of the media is way, way overrated most of the time. Would the media be a) as liberal as conservatives like to claim and b) as influential on voting behavior as conservatives like to claim, George W. Bush wouldn't have become president in the first place and he would never have been re-elected in 2004. Not to mention that the Republicans would never have kept control of Congress from 1994 to 2008. Not to mention of the Reagan/Bush Sr. presidencies.

Scientific research has proven half a century ago that readers/viewers/listeners tend to pick media and news products those content is in line with their already existing opinion. And this opinion isn't shaped by the media, but by socialization (your parents and family, your friends and colleagues, your surrounding environment, things you've experienced in your life so far etc.) So, Conservatives opt for right-wing media, liberals go for left-wing media and it's fair to assume that Independent/moderate/undecided voters either take a look at both or try to find news that they deem more or less "fair and balanced" (so, not Fox News... although they could watch both Fox News and MSNBC, for example).
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« Reply #2 on: December 24, 2008, 06:50:25 am »
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I think what happened is back in 2000, the media loved McCain because he was "Anti-Bush"...then they loved him all along until they realized "Wait a minute...he's going to be a REPUBLICAN President" and turned coat.
There is also the significant fact that McCain changed beyond recognition between 2000 and 2008 - first he became one of the greatest warmongers in the Senate, then ditched all of his moderate positions to endear himself to social conservatives.
In any case, the media likes underdogs, especially when they're principled and honest, which McCain was in 2000 and Bush most certainly wasn't.
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2008, 07:21:10 am »
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first he became one of the greatest warmongers in the Senate, then ditched all of his moderate positions to endear himself to social conservatives.

This. I have family in New Hampshire; they trend towards libertarianism, they do not trend towards conservatism, and seem to dislike it more than liberalism. McCain version 2.000 would have been perfect for the region; McCain version 2.008, the social fascist version, was not.

Hate to break it to you, Reaganfan, but those Southern Baptists your Party relies on so much are repellent to many other people who might otherwise consider the G.O.P.
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Dessie Potter
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« Reply #4 on: December 24, 2008, 07:45:47 am »
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In any case, consider that McCain better than Bush in New Hampshire, when compared to the US average. The 2004 New Hampshire margin was 3.83% more Democratic than the US margin, while in 2008 it was only 2.36% more Democratic. Bush would have won the state if he had this margin difference.
Of course, this result might not have been entirely due to McCain. Maybe Kerry was just a very good candidate for New Hampshire. Still, I think that McCain's result in New Hampshire was the best a Republican can get there nowadays, but it's unreasonable to expect that a libertarian leaning state will like a warmonger a conservative, which is what McCain had become by the end.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #5 on: December 24, 2008, 08:33:54 am »
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Hate to break it to you, Reaganfan, but those Southern Baptists your Party relies on so much are repellent to many other people who might otherwise consider the G.O.P.

I'm not a "southern baptist" and I don't find myself afraid of religion or of "southern church-going" voters. So they go to Church and have a strong faith, so what?
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« Reply #6 on: December 24, 2008, 08:37:07 am »
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Hate to break it to you, Reaganfan, but those Southern Baptists your Party relies on so much are repellent to many other people who might otherwise consider the G.O.P.

I'm not a "southern baptist" and I don't find myself afraid of religion or of "southern church-going" voters. So they go to Church and have a strong faith, so what?

Southern Baptist is a denomination of Christians, fool; that's their name. And they make up a goodly majority of your Party's base, and it's why the G.O.P. has, from 1980 onwards, put forward a fundamentally anti-liberty, anti-freedom social platform aimed at restricting the cultural opportunities provided to women, homosexuals, and religious and racial minorities. They ought to be met with massive resistance on all fronts, and the good people of New Hampshire realize this.
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Reaganfan
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« Reply #7 on: December 24, 2008, 08:44:45 am »
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Hate to break it to you, Reaganfan, but those Southern Baptists your Party relies on so much are repellent to many other people who might otherwise consider the G.O.P.

I'm not a "southern baptist" and I don't find myself afraid of religion or of "southern church-going" voters. So they go to Church and have a strong faith, so what?

Southern Baptist is a denomination of Christians, fool; that's their name. And they make up a goodly majority of your Party's base, and it's why the G.O.P. has, from 1980 onwards, put forward a fundamentally anti-liberty, anti-freedom social platform aimed at restricting the cultural opportunities provided to women, homosexuals, and religious and racial minorities. They ought to be met with massive resistance on all fronts, and the good people of New Hampshire realize this.

It's my understanding that gays, women, and minorities have the same rights as everyone else. They are free to work, to vote to do whatever.
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« Reply #8 on: December 24, 2008, 08:48:24 am »
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Hate to break it to you, Reaganfan, but those Southern Baptists your Party relies on so much are repellent to many other people who might otherwise consider the G.O.P.

I'm not a "southern baptist" and I don't find myself afraid of religion or of "southern church-going" voters. So they go to Church and have a strong faith, so what?

Southern Baptist is a denomination of Christians, fool; that's their name. And they make up a goodly majority of your Party's base, and it's why the G.O.P. has, from 1980 onwards, put forward a fundamentally anti-liberty, anti-freedom social platform aimed at restricting the cultural opportunities provided to women, homosexuals, and religious and racial minorities. They ought to be met with massive resistance on all fronts, and the good people of New Hampshire realize this.

It's my understanding that gays, women, and minorities have the same rights as everyone else. They are free to work, to vote to do whatever.

Are homosexuals at liberty to marry? If your Party were to follow its platform to the letter - which, of course, it never does once it attains power; why end the sole issue which drives evangelical Christians to the ballot to vote for your Party? - would women retain their fundamental liberty to take command of their own bodies and have an abortion should they so choose? Is anyone at freedom in a Republican Administration to ingest substances of their own will, which harm nobody other than themselves? No? It is because your Party despises freedom, and fears it, and will do whatever it  takes to curtail its benefits for as many citizens as possible.
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Life is change --
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- Jefferson Airplane, "Crown of Creation"

The right to die in Iraq was a right not previously possessed by Americans for twelve long years.  Bush rectified that.
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brittain33
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« Reply #9 on: December 24, 2008, 09:46:30 am »
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It's my understanding that gays, women, and minorities have the same rights as everyone else. They are free to work, to vote to do whatever.

Setting aside the right to marry, I can be fired in something like 35 states for being gay if my boss finds it out and disapproves. This isn't a problem for straight people, and people can not be fired because of gender discrimination or racial discrimination, which includes men and Caucasians who believe they've been discriminated against for that basis. Also, we do not have the right to serve in the military (DADT is a joke). We can be compelled to testify in court against our partners. We can not transfer property or inherit pension benefits without tax penalties. My partner gets health care through my company's partner benefits, but I must pay federal income tax on that benefit as income, while if he were a woman, they'd be tax free. We must fill out separate customs forms when we return from traveling overseas, including from our honeymoon. We can not be guaranteed hospital visitation rights or the right to make medical decisions in most states. This is just a start. It's not all about "protecting traditional values."
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 09:48:48 am by brittain33 »Logged
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« Reply #10 on: December 24, 2008, 09:48:56 am »
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Hey brittain, are you active at all in Democratic politics?
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Life is change --
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New worlds to gain
My life is to survive
And be alive
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- Jefferson Airplane, "Crown of Creation"

The right to die in Iraq was a right not previously possessed by Americans for twelve long years.  Bush rectified that.
Holmes
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« Reply #11 on: December 24, 2008, 09:56:49 am »
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Whoa creepy, I actually just read an article saying exactly that in Utah, that if your boss thinks you're gay, you can be fired. I guess sh/e doesn't even have to prove it...

And I'd just like to add that, earlier this month was the first time in history that registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in New Hampshire. Smiley
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brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: December 24, 2008, 10:06:28 am »
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Hey brittain, are you active at all in Democratic politics?

No... I've done some volunteering for legislative campaigns, but not recently. I'm absolutely not cut out for elected office. Why do you ask?
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« Reply #13 on: December 24, 2008, 10:10:31 am »
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Hey brittain, are you active at all in Democratic politics?

No... I've done some volunteering for legislative campaigns, but not recently. I'm absolutely not cut out for elected office. Why do you ask?

I'm trying to find some way to push through this crazy 'liberaltarian' notion of mine, that would unite liberals and (principled) libertarians on social issues. But I'm only nineteen, and the only person I know myself who could run for office and win is a few years away from being eligible for a position of any importance.
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Life is change --
How it differs from the rocks
I've seen their ways
Too often for my liking

New worlds to gain
My life is to survive
And be alive
For you


- Jefferson Airplane, "Crown of Creation"

The right to die in Iraq was a right not previously possessed by Americans for twelve long years.  Bush rectified that.
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« Reply #14 on: December 24, 2008, 10:14:24 am »
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Whoa creepy, I actually just read an article saying exactly that in Utah, that if your boss thinks you're gay, you can be fired. I guess sh/e doesn't even have to prove it...

And I'd just like to add that, earlier this month was the first time in history that registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans in New Hampshire. Smiley

Way off-topic here, but that's not only Utah. It's the vast majority of states.

The following states have laws forbidding firing on any basis of sexuality:

Minnesota
Rhode Island
New Mexico
California
District of Columbia
Illinois
Maine
Hawaii
New Jersey
Washington
Iowa
Oregon
Vermont
Colorado

And the following states have laws forbidding discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, but not other aspects of sexuality (so not transgender people, for example):

Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Nevada
Maryland
New York

Everywhere else, which is thirty of the fifty states, it is legal to fire someone simply for the suspicion that they are gay. It doesn't need to be proven as long as the suspicion is the basis for the firing (and not some category such as gender or race which does have protection). A parallel case would be one in which someone was fired for suspicion of having, say, Arab ancestry; even if they didn't, they'd be covered under laws against firing based on race or ethnicity.

There are some counties and municipalities in states not listed above which forbid firing on the basis of sexual orientation or sexuality as well, of course. Places like Austin, Texas; Alexandria, Virginia; Fort Lauderdale, Florida, etc. all probably have such laws.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 10:17:12 am by Verily »Logged
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brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: December 24, 2008, 10:14:55 am »
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I'm trying to find some way to push through this crazy 'liberaltarian' notion of mine, that would unite liberals and (principled) libertarians on social issues. But I'm only nineteen, and the only person I know myself who could run for office and win is a few years away from being eligible for a position of any importance.

Yeah, I don't feel I have a good grasp on changes in power. All I can say is that in my experience (and no doubt yours) a lot of young people feel the same way, and I've seen some make progress at a local and state level, so there's potential there.
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« Reply #16 on: December 24, 2008, 10:24:46 am »
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The following states have laws forbidding firing on any basis of sexuality:

Minnesota
Rhode Island
New Mexico
California
District of Columbia
Illinois
Maine
Hawaii
New Jersey
Washington
Iowa
Oregon
Vermont
Colorado

And the following states have laws forbidding discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, but not other aspects of sexuality (so not transgender people, for example):

Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Nevada
Maryland
New York
Holy crap, those are almost all the states Kerry won, bar Nevada. Tongue

It's kinda sad. The article was talking about the only human rights activist group in Utah. It's pretty interesting but a sad read for gay Utahns...
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« Reply #17 on: December 24, 2008, 10:30:06 am »
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The following states have laws forbidding firing on any basis of sexuality:

Minnesota
Rhode Island
New Mexico
California
District of Columbia
Illinois
Maine
Hawaii
New Jersey
Washington
Iowa
Oregon
Vermont
Colorado

And the following states have laws forbidding discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, but not other aspects of sexuality (so not transgender people, for example):

Wisconsin
Massachusetts
Connecticut
New Hampshire
Nevada
Maryland
New York
Holy crap, those are almost all the states Kerry won, bar Nevada. Tongue

It's kinda sad. The article was talking about the only human rights activist group in Utah. It's pretty interesting but a sad read for gay Utahns...

And Colorado and New Mexico. Which should make it really, really obvious why the retreat to radical social conservatism has destroyed the Republican brand in Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire (which, as this thread points out, was fine with Republicans in 2000, much as the others were in 2004). New Hampshire's voting patterns are not too dissimilar from Colorado, at least, although Colorado is much more geographically polarized and demographically diverse.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 10:32:52 am by Verily »Logged
Reaganfan
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« Reply #18 on: December 24, 2008, 10:52:30 am »
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I had a woman tell me that she was surprised that I would be intimate because I was a Republican.

If that's what we've become as a party....we're done not just in NH but everywhere.
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« Reply #19 on: December 24, 2008, 11:04:43 am »
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I had a woman tell me that she was surprised that I would be intimate because I was a Republican.

If that's what we've become as a party....we're done not just in NH but everywhere.

Yeah, and you can thank that jerkoff Ronald Wilson Reagan for making possible massive (albeit temporary) gains in the 1980's in exchange for massive losses in the 2000's, and, probably, for the foreseeable future. He opened the doors to the fundamentalists who now have free reign over the Republican Party and who are beginning to drive the socially moderate free-marketeers and old money out the door.

Look here:



This is where the Democrats were in the first quarter of the 20th century, when they were by far the more conservative of the two parties, going against a liberal Republican. Now the Democrats are making motions to the libertarian mountain West. This map shows where you people could be very soon if, say, a candidate Huckabee runs against a popular incumbent Obama - or, indeed, if the gradual social liberalization of my generation continues at its present pace, for the discernible future.
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Life is change --
How it differs from the rocks
I've seen their ways
Too often for my liking

New worlds to gain
My life is to survive
And be alive
For you


- Jefferson Airplane, "Crown of Creation"

The right to die in Iraq was a right not previously possessed by Americans for twelve long years.  Bush rectified that.
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« Reply #20 on: December 24, 2008, 02:25:45 pm »
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I had a woman tell me that she was surprised that I would be intimate because I was a Republican.

If that's what we've become as a party....we're done not just in NH but everywhere.

Yeah, and you can thank that jerkoff Ronald Wilson Reagan for making possible massive (albeit temporary) gains in the 1980's in exchange for massive losses in the 2000's, and, probably, for the foreseeable future. He opened the doors to the fundamentalists who now have free reign over the Republican Party and who are beginning to drive the socially moderate free-marketeers and old money out the door.

Look here:



This is where the Democrats were in the first quarter of the 20th century, when they were by far the more conservative of the two parties, going against a liberal Republican. Now the Democrats are making motions to the libertarian mountain West. This map shows where you people could be very soon if, say, a candidate Huckabee runs against a popular incumbent Obama - or, indeed, if the gradual social liberalization of my generation continues at its present pace, for the discernible future.

Flip MD, VA to Obama and UT, OK, ID, WY, KS, WV to the Republicans and that could very well be a map in an Obama/Huckabee (or similar populist social conservaitve) election.
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« Reply #21 on: December 24, 2008, 02:45:20 pm »
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Flip MD, VA to Obama and UT, OK, ID, WY, KS, WV to the Republicans and that could very well be a map in an Obama/Huckabee (or similar populist social conservaitve) election.

No doubt it's not an exact match, and the G.O.P. would certainly retain control over Utah and Idaho through the Mormons, Oklahoma and Kansas through the fundamentalists, but West Virginia could still conceivably go Democratic in the right political climate. Still, the Republicans today run the dire risk of becoming the Southern Party (with a little bit of the western plains thrown in for good measure). That's not a good prospect for them in the medium-long term (15-30 years). It's also why I expect there to be a seismic shift leftwards within about that timeframe, at least matching Nixon's mini-revolutions. 
« Last Edit: December 24, 2008, 02:48:48 pm by Einzige »Logged

Life is change --
How it differs from the rocks
I've seen their ways
Too often for my liking

New worlds to gain
My life is to survive
And be alive
For you


- Jefferson Airplane, "Crown of Creation"

The right to die in Iraq was a right not previously possessed by Americans for twelve long years.  Bush rectified that.
Rob
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« Reply #22 on: December 24, 2008, 03:13:06 pm »
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I had a woman tell me that she was surprised that I would be intimate because I was a Republican.

You know incest is illegal, right?
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« Reply #23 on: December 24, 2008, 06:04:11 pm »
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Flip MD, VA to Obama and UT, OK, ID, WY, KS, WV to the Republicans and that could very well be a map in an Obama/Huckabee (or similar populist social conservaitve) election.

No doubt it's not an exact match, and the G.O.P. would certainly retain control over Utah and Idaho through the Mormons, Oklahoma and Kansas through the fundamentalists, but West Virginia could still conceivably go Democratic in the right political climate. Still, the Republicans today run the dire risk of becoming the Southern Party (with a little bit of the western plains thrown in for good measure). That's not a good prospect for them in the medium-long term (15-30 years). It's also why I expect there to be a seismic shift leftwards within about that timeframe, at least matching Nixon's mini-revolutions. 

All things considered the 2 maps are still pretty close considering they're 100 years apart and there's only about the half dozen states I mentioned above that would be with any certainty different. I agree WV could definitely go Democrat in the future, but not for Obama. Racism definitely was the major reason he lost by a bigger margin than Kerry (despite Kerry being a horrible fit for them).

To me, the most interesting thing about American politics in the long-term is trying to gauge which long-term direction the GOP will take. I am almost certain right now that the Republicans will nominate someone like Huckabee or Romney for 2012 (since many parts of the base still think McCain being too moderate was the reason for defeat) and get crushed by Obama. Truth be told, I sort of fear there's a better chance Obama doesn't survive his first term than of his losing re-election to a Republican. 2012 in that sense would probably be the year the Republicans truly get the message and start re-evaluating themselves while 2016 is probably the first glimpse we'll get of their new direction. If they don't ditch/deemphasize the moral fascist elements within the party to make moderate libertarian-leaners like myself able to even consider voting for them, they'll probably need to assemble a whole new coalition.

If Obama governs as a moderate on economics but as a social liberal, I think it's possible the GOP might eventually try moving to the left of the Democrats on economics to appeal to more voters while still retaining some elements of their social conservatism, albeit to a less vocal degree, to help preserve the Southern base. Hispanics, who will become far more important over the next decade, tend to sympathize with Democrats on the economy but still typically have more social conservative tendencies, which could make social conservative + economic liberal a smart strategic combination for Republicans.
 
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« Reply #24 on: December 24, 2008, 09:52:05 pm »
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As been stated the McCain of 2000 would have been a much better fit for the state than McCain circia 2008.  The GOP got their asses handed to them on a platter in 06 in NH & that isn't a one time thing.  As the GOP has moved right in recent years, NH has moved left.  That isn't going to bold well for the GOP there.  NH is basically gone for the GOP.
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