Flip MD, VA to Obama and UT, OK, ID, WY, KS, WV to the Republicans and that could very well be a map in an Obama/Huckabee (or similar populist social conservaitve) election.
No doubt it's not an exact match, and the G.O.P. would certainly retain control over Utah and Idaho through the Mormons, Oklahoma and Kansas through the fundamentalists, but West Virginia could still conceivably go Democratic in the right political climate. Still, the Republicans today run the dire risk of becoming the Southern Party (with a little bit of the western plains thrown in for good measure). That's not a good prospect for them in the medium-long term (15-30 years). It's also why I expect there to be a seismic shift leftwards within about that timeframe, at least matching Nixon's mini-revolutions.
All things considered the 2 maps are still pretty close considering they're 100 years apart and there's only about the half dozen states I mentioned above that would be with any certainty different. I agree WV could definitely go Democrat in the future, but not for Obama. Racism definitely was the major reason he lost by a bigger margin than Kerry (despite Kerry being a horrible fit for them).
To me, the most interesting thing about American politics in the long-term is trying to gauge which long-term direction the GOP will take. I am almost certain right now that the Republicans will nominate someone like Huckabee or Romney for 2012 (since many parts of the base still think McCain being too moderate was the reason for defeat) and get crushed by Obama. Truth be told, I sort of fear there's a better chance Obama doesn't survive his first term than of his losing re-election to a Republican. 2012 in that sense would probably be the year the Republicans truly get the message and start re-evaluating themselves while 2016 is probably the first glimpse we'll get of their new direction. If they don't ditch/deemphasize the moral fascist elements within the party to make moderate libertarian-leaners like myself able to even consider voting for them, they'll probably need to assemble a whole new coalition.
If Obama governs as a moderate on economics but as a social liberal, I think it's possible the GOP might eventually try moving to the left of the Democrats on economics to appeal to more voters while still retaining some elements of their social conservatism, albeit to a less vocal degree, to help preserve the Southern base. Hispanics, who will become far more important over the next decade, tend to sympathize with Democrats on the economy but still typically have more social conservative tendencies, which could make social conservative + economic liberal a smart strategic combination for Republicans.
