What's up with New Hampshire?

[GMantis]

I think what happened is back in 2000, the media loved McCain because he was "Anti-Bush"...then they loved him all along until they realized "Wait a minute...he's going to be a REPUBLICAN President" and turned coat.

There is also the significant fact that McCain changed beyond recognition between 2000 and 2008 - first he became one of the greatest warmongers in the Senate, then ditched all of his moderate positions to endear himself to social conservatives.
In any case, the media likes underdogs, especially when they're principled and honest, which McCain was in 2000 and Bush most certainly wasn't.

[GMantis]

In any case, consider that McCain better than Bush in New Hampshire, when compared to the US average. The 2004 New Hampshire margin was 3.83% more Democratic than the US margin, while in 2008 it was only 2.36% more Democratic. Bush would have won the state if he had this margin difference.
Of course, this result might not have been entirely due to McCain. Maybe Kerry was just a very good candidate for New Hampshire. Still, I think that McCain's result in New Hampshire was the best a Republican can get there nowadays, but it's unreasonable to expect that a libertarian leaning state will like a warmonger a conservative, which is what McCain had become by the end.