Jeb Bush in 2012

[GPORTER]

Barack Obama/Joe Biden vs. Jeb Bush/William Owens vs. Mike Bloomberg/Chuck Hagel

The economy continues to go down hill and the two wars continue.

Obama faces Dennis Kucinich and Mark Warner in the democratic primaries. However, after Iowa and New Hampshire, Kucinich quits the campaign and endorses Obama. Mark Warner lasts until Super Tuesday and he quits the day after Super Tuesday. Warner endorses Obama. Warner and Kucinich release their delegates. Obama is renomination unanimously at the DNC. Biden is renominated by acclamation.

On the GOP side, their is a wide field of candidates. However, soon into the primary season, Jeb Bush breaks away from the pack and clinches the nomination in the primaries following super Tuesday. The other candidates left in the campaign drop out, release their delegates, and endorse Bush for party unity. Bush is nominated unanimously on the first ballot. Bush recommends to the convention the name of William Owens of Colorado to be nominated for vice president. William Owens is nominated by acclamation.

Mike Bloomberg decides to run as an independent and Chuck Hagel agrees to be his running mate in the fall. Bloomberg gets on the ballot in all fifty states.


Discuss, with maps if you wish.

[Jeff from NC]

Jeepers, that's a loaded scenario.  I'll give it my best shot.

First: Bloomberg runs a moderate, pro-business, free trade, civil libertarian campaign and takes moderates from both parties in three regions: the West (where people are open to third-party candidates - see Ross Perot's numbers), New York, and Connecticut-Vermont-Maine-New Hampshire (where Perot also did well, I think).  Out west he steals more Democrats, particularly in Colorado and Montana.  In Connecticut-Vermont-Maine-New Hampshire, he takes lots of Republicans and enough Democrats to win those states.  In New York, he wins the city handily and upstate is split between him and the two main-party candidates, giving him a plurality.

Second: the Midwest by and large stays with the Democrats.  The economy sucks, and they're still blaming the Republicans.

Third: the South is easily in the bag for Jeb, so he paints himself as the leader of a kinder, gentler Republican party geared towards winning Hispanics.  This helps him steal Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

[Jeff from NC]

Whoops, I should clarify: the industrial belt stays Democrat, the upper midwest splits off.

[Iosif]

Even if Obama sells Florida to the Castros he'd still landslide Jeb Bush.

[Nixon in '80]

Even if Obama sells Florida to the Castros he'd still landslide Jeb Bush.

Your reasoning?

[Reaganfan]

Jeb would of course win Florida. Obama was lucky enough to carry Florida this time around...but against Jeb...no dice.

[RosettaStoned]

The Bush name has, thankfully, forever been destroyed.

[Nixon in '80]

The Bush name has, thankfully, forever been destroyed.

Never say never.

I realize you didn't actually say never, but still... just don't do it. Anything can happen.

I'm not saying it's going to, but these are the kind of comments that may make you look stupid in four or eight years.

I'm done rambling.

[Senator Ben]

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Bloomberg wouldn't win any states if he ran as an Independent, end of story, likewise with former Governor Jeb Bush mounting a bid to run for President in the near future.

The economy continues to go down hill and the two wars continue.

Garrison, if you don't mind me asking why do most of your 2012 scenario revolve around athe concept of a cataclysmic first term for President Barack Obama? So much for trying to escape your perception of being a Republican hack .

[WalterMitty]

the bush brand has gone the way of green ketchup and clear pepsi.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

the bush brand has gone the way of green ketchup and clear pepsi.

Walter I must admit I'm surprised you didn't mention New Coke.

[Senator Ben]

the bush brand has gone the way of green ketchup and clear pepsi.

Walter I must admit I'm surprised you didn't mention New Coke.

New Coke is making a comeback!

[Robespierre's Jaw]

New Coke is making a comeback!

Now I could really imagine Republican Party strategists marketing Jeb Bush like New Coke if he were to run in 2012, but of course it would end cataclysmically just like it did for New Coke in 1985.

[GMantis]

Even if Obama sells Florida to the Castros he'd still landslide Jeb Bush.

Not even; especially, since voters in all other states will be grateful that Obama rid them of Florida and Florida wouldn't vote

[Padfoot]

Assuming the Democratic nightmare scenario you proposed comes true, this is the map I'd predict.  However that's the only way anyone named Bush will win in 2012.  Plus, such a scenario is highly unlikely especially given the recent steps the Iraqi government has made in order to ensure US troops are out of Iraq before the next US presidential election.  Afghanistan may very well continue to be an issue especially given recent rise in tensions between Pakistan and India.  I won't even begin to try predicting how the economy goes though.  Obviously I hope it improves but there are no guarantees.  And any Republican who is hoping it continues to suck just so they can win in 2012 or 2010 is not a patriot.  Perhaps Democrats should name the stimulus package the "Red, White and Blue Act" or the "God Bless America Act" or any other name oozing with patriotism so the Republicans will be coerced into supporting it just like they did to the Democrats with the so-called "Patriot" Act.