Does JJ believe his own spin?

[memphis]

Just curious if people think it's an intellectual exercise or if he's serious when he says things like Obama would have lost the white Democrat vote in the summer of '08.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I absolutely love how people like you and BRTD pick statements said months ago and harp on them like they are gospel after the election. I'm pretty sure none of you ever made a prediction that turned out to be false.....

And if you did, using it against you would be totally unfair!

[memphis]

Months ago? He's still spinning the election. I just want to know if people think he's serious or playing devil's advocate.

[Keystone Phil]

Certain people just love obsessing over others. BRTD has a hard on for J.J. (and Walter and Ben and...) and memphis has one of me and now J.J., I guess.

J.J. has been wrong about a lot of things but what I'll never understand is why so many people feel the need to gang up on him and get him to admit it. Who cares? You won. That's never good enough though. We're not happy until we rub the "enemy's" nose in it until they vanish in humiliation. So many people feel the need to bust on J.J. so that he was backed into a corner and basically forced to defend what he said. Let's get real here - If you said something clearly wrong and a sizable amount of people won't let it go, wouldn't you look for a way to defend it so that they at least partially see where you're coming from?

And it's too late at this point anyway. Some of us just want to come here, comment and get along with one another. But the few with serious obsessions need to harp on every last wrong prediction and/or any other problem they have with you. Even when you kindly ask them to move on and agree to disagree, they don't care. There's no winning.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Months ago? He's still spinning the election. I just want to know if people think he's serious or playing devil's advocate.

Who cares? Why do the likes of you and BRTD need to constantly obsess over someone's predictions. We all make wrong ones, and from what I've seen, JJ isn't making excuses for it.

When I and others used the Kansas for Obama joke a month after it was said, people like you jumped all over us for doing it and then continued to bring it up like it was the only thing you thought about. With JJ, it is a never ending thing. Get over it. You guys won the election, but, in true fashion, that's not good enough. You want to embarrass the other side. I can't stand people like that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Certain people just love obsessing over others. BRTD has a hard on for J.J. (and Walter and Ben and...) and memphis has one of me and now J.J., I guess.

J.J. has been wrong about a lot of things but what I'll never understand is why so many people feel the need to gang up on him and get him to admit it. Who cares? You won. That's never good enough though. We're not happy until we rub the "enemy's" nose in it until they vanish in humiliation. So many people feel the need to bust on J.J. so that he was backed into a corner and basically forced to defend what he said. Let's get real here - If you said something clearly wrong and a sizable amount of people won't let it go, wouldn't you look for a way to defend it so that they at least partially see where you're coming from?

And it's too late at this point anyway. Some of us just want to come here, comment and get along with one another. But the few with serious obsessions need to harp on every last wrong prediction and/or any other problem they have with you. Even when you kindly ask them to move on and agree to disagree, they don't care. There's no winning.

It's because people like you and Duke still take him seriously and consider him a stellar political analyst and someone worth paying attention to.

[jamestroll]

If I had J.J.'s astrological data, I could accurately answer this question.

[Eraserhead]

If I had J.J.'s astrological data, I could accurately answer this question.

jamespol just won this thread.

[Alcon]

Months ago? He's still spinning the election. I just want to know if people think he's serious or playing devil's advocate.

Who cares? Why do the likes of you and BRTD need to constantly obsess over someone's predictions. We all make wrong ones, and from what I've seen, JJ isn't making excuses for it.

When I and others used the Kansas for Obama joke a month after it was said, people like you jumped all over us for doing it and then continued to bring it up like it was the only thing you thought about. With JJ, it is a never ending thing. Get over it. You guys won the election, but, in true fashion, that's not good enough. You want to embarrass the other side. I can't stand people like that.

I don't want to embarrass him, but dude's still arguing that his prediction that Obama might lose white Democrats was reasonable.  It wasn't.

He's defending his Bradley Effect predictions by finding them in random states (Iowa, Alaska, whatever), establishing no causation, and insisting it was "more than he expected."

And he's doing the same thing he did with the prior election now.  He looks for "not good for Obama"-type moments, while totally ignoring the larger context.  Obama (apparently) has 80% approval ratings, and he's analyzing the fracturing of the radical gay base.  Most politicians would kill in cold blood to have 80% approval ratings with a pissed off sub-base.  But, like with the Clinton/Obama primary struggle, he molds any evidence into a "not good for Obama" clip and totally ignores the big picture.

BRTD's obsession is weird, yeah.  But is J. J.'s obsession with rationalizing every prediction he's ever made, while continually falling into the same analytical pitfalls over and over, really "better"?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

J. J. reminds me of those type of scenes in movies where a guy is tied up and everyone starts punching him in the face repeatedly. That's basically what's happening here. Every post he makes a ton jump on him to tell him how much of a moron he is.

[Keystone Phil]

It's because people like you and Duke still take him seriously and consider him a stellar political analyst and someone worth paying attention to.

I love when you blatantly lie...

J.J. has been wrong about a lot of things

He's way more worthy of attention than you. At least he's more focused on the political aspect of this place instead of "Who has the more emo hair cut? Well, the correct answer is Person A. If you disagree, you're a moron!"

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Certain people just love obsessing over others. BRTD has a hard on for J.J. (and Walter and Ben and...) and memphis has one of me and now J.J., I guess.

J.J. has been wrong about a lot of things but what I'll never understand is why so many people feel the need to gang up on him and get him to admit it. Who cares? You won. That's never good enough though. We're not happy until we rub the "enemy's" nose in it until they vanish in humiliation. So many people feel the need to bust on J.J. so that he was backed into a corner and basically forced to defend what he said. Let's get real here - If you said something clearly wrong and a sizable amount of people won't let it go, wouldn't you look for a way to defend it so that they at least partially see where you're coming from?

And it's too late at this point anyway. Some of us just want to come here, comment and get along with one another. But the few with serious obsessions need to harp on every last wrong prediction and/or any other problem they have with you. Even when you kindly ask them to move on and agree to disagree, they don't care. There's no winning.

It's because people like you and Duke still take him seriously and consider him a stellar political analyst and someone worth paying attention to.

Where did I say J.J. was correct on his predictions? If you can find it, you'll win a prize!

My point was that it's sad that people like you and memphis obsess over people's wrong predictions like you are all knowing.

[© tweed]

you're missing the point.

if all JJ did was make some September prediction that McCain would win, nobody would care.  the issue is that he continues to argue that he was correct when he has been proven false.

he also has displayed a propensity for name-calling that would be considered immature if an eight-year-old were the perpetrator.  as well as a fondness for IQ dick-waving.  and etc.

[Keystone Phil]

you're missing the point.

if all JJ did was make some September prediction that McCain would win, nobody would care.  the issue is that he continues to argue that he was correct when he has been proven false.

he also has displayed a propensity for name-calling that would be considered immature if an eight-year-old were the perpetrator.  as well as a fondness for IQ dick-waving.  and etc.

As I said, if people got on your case as much as they get on J.J.'s, wouldn't you feel the need to defend yourself just a bit? It doesn't make his analysis correct but I feel bad for people that are the target of BRTD's strange obsessive behavior. Just let it go.

[Ban my account ffs!]

I think it's all ego... and as much as I'd love to agree with Alcon and the others and jump all over J.J., I have to understand... at least from my perspective.

When I'm wrong about something... even if I know I'm wrong.. if the people I'm arguing with start trying to rub it in and hold it over me.. no matter how wrong I was, I will defend myself and thus the position I held.

It's foolish... but not as foolish as the schadenfreude that the others get out of watching your reaction.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's because people like you and Duke still take him seriously and consider him a stellar political analyst and someone worth paying attention to.

I love when you blatantly lie...

J.J. has been wrong about a lot of things

First time I have EVER on the forum seen you admit J. J. is full of crap.

He's way more worthy of attention than you. At least he's more focused on the political aspect of this place instead of "Who has the more emo hair cut? Well, the correct answer is Person A. If you disagree, you're a moron!"

Yes, because I never post anything political or any political analysis.

Unlike your hero J. J., you can look below my name and see the map of my predictions, which he blatantly refused to do, because of course he doesn't want any concrete documentation of his hackery. Not only that but I predicted every county in the country.

you're missing the point.

if all JJ did was make some September prediction that McCain would win, nobody would care.  the issue is that he continues to argue that he was correct when he has been proven false.

he also has displayed a propensity for name-calling that would be considered immature if an eight-year-old were the perpetrator.  as well as a fondness for IQ dick-waving.  and etc.

As I said, if people got on your case as much as they get on J.J.'s, wouldn't you feel the need to defend yourself just a bit? It doesn't make his analysis correct but I feel bad for people that are the target of BRTD's strange obsessive behavior. Just let it go.

It would be a lot easier just to own up that you were wrong and get over it. You've done it before. J. J. refuses to and just keeps spinning with his Bradley Effect BS. You used to be a big Bradley Effect believer, now you've admitted it's a load of crap. J. J. however has resorted to comically dishonest number twisting to argue that it did happen, just in places like Iowa, North Dakota and Alaska, and there's absolutely no rhyme or reason to why it happens, which is beyond absurd.

This comically bad spinning has gone on all year too. Back when it looked like Hillary would be the nominee, he was arguing that she would lose Illinois. Then he started whoring for Hillary all throughout the primaries spinning for her chances ever after every stated voted. Then the spin in the general election, and his current spin that Obama's >80% numbers aren't good, etc. He also makes comically incorrect predictions, but rather than just admit he goofs he tries to use beyond flawed logic to argue he was really right even when absolutely no one buys it. Big of an ego I must say.

The name calling is also a thing too. He's a 46 year old who argues like an 8 year old.

[Keystone Phil]

First time I have EVER on the forum seen you admit J. J. is full of crap.

Oh, oh, I see. "On the forum." You know that I admitted privately that I don't think J.J. has been right about a few things. That doesn't mean that he's always "full of crap" though.

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I never said that.

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And here you go again! How the hell is he my hero? Because he's not you? Looks like I have quite a few heroes...

 

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Good for you, pal. I've never called you a bad predictor.

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You wouldn't give up. I love how you give me credit for admitting when I'm wrong and yet suddenly forget how you still get on my case for bad predictions. This is exactly what I'm talking about.

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LOL!

Wait...wait...did you not just get on my case for arguing that someone older than me has the maturity of a child and yet you do the same thing just now? Too good.

[© tweed]

you're missing the point.

if all JJ did was make some September prediction that McCain would win, nobody would care.  the issue is that he continues to argue that he was correct when he has been proven false.

he also has displayed a propensity for name-calling that would be considered immature if an eight-year-old were the perpetrator.  as well as a fondness for IQ dick-waving.  and etc.

As I said, if people got on your case as much as they get on J.J.'s, wouldn't you feel the need to defend yourself just a bit? It doesn't make his analysis correct but I feel bad for people that are the target of BRTD's strange obsessive behavior. Just let it go.

he's not defending himself, he's defending a concept.  although it could be argued that he has become one with the concept.  and your post is a bit chicken-or-the-egg.

[Alcon]

I'm not attacking J. J.  I'm attacking J. J.'s predictions.  When he is unable to separate his ego from his prediction, and admit the wrong in his methodology, I attack his methodology.  Is refusing to recalibrate your methods for making observations a personal fault?  I have no idea.  But if he cannot separate ego from this, and as a result takes my criticism as a personal shot, that's really his issue.  I understand being defensive, especially when being attacked by someone like BRTD.  But refusing to recognize reality just to maintain your own ego is an explanation, not a defense.

Also, the MENSA thing was pretty weak.

[afleitch]

Anyone who flashes apparent 'credentials' openly on this forum deserves to be burned.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone who flashes apparent 'credentials' openly on this forum deserves to be burned.

Mostly agree though there are obvious exceptions (muon and the inner workings of the Illinois State Legislature for example.)

[afleitch]

Anyone who flashes apparent 'credentials' openly on this forum deserves to be burned.

Mostly agree though there are obvious exceptions (muon and the inner workings of the Illinois State Legislature for example.)

Hence the '' - the whole MENSA thing was just pompous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone who flashes apparent 'credentials' openly on this forum deserves to be burned.

Mostly agree though there are obvious exceptions (muon and the inner workings of the Illinois State Legislature for example.)

Hence the '' - the whole MENSA thing was just pompous.

True.