The World 2050

[Sbane]

I really don't see why everybody thinks China and India will do so well. Most of India is still an uneducated, third-world country. China is growing too rapidly to be sustainable, and the one child policy will stifle growth as well. Communism cannot sustain growth like that.

Well, I've actually thought it has down quite well, actually, so far. But the growth is invisible, despite upticks in international clout and domestic "prosperity". China is a ticking time bomb, and basically Japan on steroids. Sometime in the decade after next people will realize that this is just a short term trend for China.

Indeed.

I think India has potential, but there's such a disparity between the urban and rural areas in terms of standard of living.

The disparity's between rich and poor, not urban and rural.

Which is one and the same. The urban poor would actually not be so poor if they lived in rural areas. 50% of Mumbai lives in slums and I bet at least half of them, if not more, make way more money than the average rural dweller. The same amount of money buys you almost nothing in Mumbai as compared to the villages.

Plus city dwellers would have much much better access to education than those in rural areas and that is certainly more important than how much money their parents make.

[Sbane]

I really don't see why everybody thinks China and India will do so well. Most of India is still an uneducated, third-world country. China is growing too rapidly to be sustainable, and the one child policy will stifle growth as well. Communism cannot sustain growth like that.

Yes educating everyone is certainly a prerequisite to sustained growth but India has been doing.that. Although the overall literacy rate is 62%, the literacy rate for those under 15 is 82%. And if you compare it to 1947, you will notice a stark difference. The real question is whether the trend will continue till everyone is educated or if it will stall. Some proactive measures (like giving meals with schooling thus incentivising poor parents to send their kids to school, not work) indicate it should continue.

In addition more than half of Indians are under the age of 30 and this bodes very well for sustained growth, especially when you consider the higher education rates among this group. And even low education is not always bad since it provides for low labor rates for jobs which don't require education. China has excelled at this by doing most of the world's menial manufacturing. India needs to catch up but the problem is that it's got much, much stricter labor laws. Now I wouldn't want to subject Indian workers to the conditions Chinese workers go through (well it already does happen in the informal sector) but common sense reforms could make things better.