The Upper Midwest

[jacob_101]

I am going with option 4 for now.  Vote and explain why.

[J. J.]

Both IA and WI are trending toward Bush; IA is probably solidly for Bush.  Both of these were close states where less than a 10,000 vote swing would have given them to Bush in 2000.

MN, on the other hand, had a greater margin then and is trending towards Kerry.  It's also been a more traditionally Dem state.

[muon2]

The most likely scenario is Bush 2/3 - specifically IA and WI. Since the primary season the bases and swing voters in IA and WI have always been more amenable to Bush. It is also the case that the ABB factor has been higher in MN throughout the year making that state the most likely of the three to go for Kerry.

A major faux pas by either candidate or unusual external events could change the current picture. I'll give it a 25% chance that those events lead to a Bush win of all three.

[Sibboleth]

I have Bush favoured in WI and Kerry in MN. Iowa is a strange state and the numbers there have been all over the place...
Will Western IA outvote the Eastern Cities?
Dunno

[iosip]

Both IA and WI are trending toward Bush; IA is probably solidly for Bush.

dream on

[© Tweed the Younger]

50%

[zorkpolitics]

Bush has an excellent chance to win WI and IA, and a modest chance to win MN.  If the polls mean anything.
According to RealClear list of poll results
Bush has been ahead or tied in the last 4 polls from WI avergae +6, he has been ahead in the last 4 IA polls, average  +4, but he has led in only 1 of the last 3 polls from MN where the average is a tie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#ia

Similarly the Hedgehog list shows Bush leaidng in IA in all 7 polls since the RNC, in WI Bush has led in the 6/7 polls since the RNC, while in MN he has led in only 2/6 polls.

http://www.geocities.com/hedgehogreport/bushkerry2004state.html

So unless the national race changes significantly, Bush should win 2 out of 3 of the upper midwest

[dazzleman]

Bush has an excellent chance to win WI and IA, and a modest chance to win MN.  If the polls mean anything.
According to RealClear list of poll results
Bush has been ahead or tied in the last 4 polls from WI avergae +6, he has been ahead in the last 4 IA polls, average  +4, but he has led in only 1 of the last 3 polls from MN where the average is a tie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html#ia

Similarly the Hedgehog list shows Bush leaidng in IA in all 7 polls since the RNC, in WI Bush has led in the 6/7 polls since the RNC, while in MN he has led in only 2/6 polls.

http://www.geocities.com/hedgehogreport/bushkerry2004state.html

So unless the national race changes significantly, Bush should win 2 out of 3 of the upper midwest

Well said.  I agree completely.

[Democratic Hawk]

I reluctantly say 50% but I'm hoping the progressive traditions prevail come November 2

Dave

[kelpie]

50%.

WI is a done deal, I think, but MN and IA are bigger asks.  Bush doesn't need them, but he wants Kerry to have to spend money in them.

[Gustaf]

I wouldn't really call WI a done deal, but is more likely to go Bush than Kerry by now.

I expect Kerry to improve at least a little on his current numbers by election day (or he will turn out to be REALLY incompetent). That should enable him to win MN and perhaps recover in Iowa.

[J. J.]

Both IA and WI are trending toward Bush; IA is probably solidly for Bush.

dream on

Read the polls.  :-)

[Bogart]

I think WI and IA will go Bush, but MN is still very much up in the air to say. I go with 25%.

[iosip]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

[Bogart]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

And, your reasoning is?

[A18]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

...Well, it's just that EVERY poll has Bush up in those states right now...but yeah, you're a moron, so don't worry about it.

[iosip]

but yeah, you're a moron, so don't worry about it.

hahahahahah

and you conservatives complain that nobody likes you

[Pollwatch99]

50% chance.  These states are not automatic Democratic.

Gore won WI by 0.2% in 2000
Gore won IA by 0.3% in 2000
Gore won MN by 2.5% in 2000

Poll trends are good for Bush in WI, IA

MN looks tied

[ian]

I put 10% because I personally believe that Kerry will win this election without losing any of the states Gore won.  The only exception is MAYBE Wisconsin, and Iowa is polling towards Bush right now, but when the debates start to go on, Iowa will be right back to Kerry.  Anyone that put no chance in hell is obviously arrogant and ignorant.

[Gabu]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

And, your reasoning is?

dream on

[J. J.]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

And, your reasoning is?

dream on

I guess what Gabu is saying that he a dream that Kerry won WI and IA.  Of course that same dream showed Bush winning CA, MA and DC.  ;-)

[Gabu]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

And, your reasoning is?

dream on

I guess what Gabu is saying that he a dream that Kerry won WI and IA.  Of course that same dream showed Bush winning CA, MA and DC.  ;-)

Fortunately, Kerry swept Texas and the Midwest.

[J. J.]

I think WI and IA will go Bush

dream on

And, your reasoning is?

dream on

I guess what Gabu is saying that he a dream that Kerry won WI and IA.  Of course that same dream showed Bush winning CA, MA and DC.  ;-)

Fortunately, Kerry swept Texas and the Midwest.

But unfortunately not the rest of the Pacific Rim, NY, PA and the South, including MD.  And of course Maine's 2 CD.  >;-)