Is Wisconsin the bellweather for 2004?

[J. J.]

I may be confused over what exactly Philip is arguing....My argument is that WI is a must win for both sides and is therefore the bellweather.

The "Big 4" as I see it, are FL, NJ, OH, & PA.  Kerry will have to win three (and, possibly excepting OH, they are close), to tie or win.  I'm not seeing WI as being as critical.  Even if Kerry would get the two biggest of these states, AND WI, he'd still lose.

[Sam Spade]

Point taken, but unless Kerry can make any headway in any large red states (excepting WV, NH, NV), if Bush wins Ohio, Florida and any state with more than 8 electoral votes (Wisconsin is one of those), he will win regardless of a Kerry small-state strategy.

I also must respectfully disagree with the idea that these hurricanes are going to cause any lower turnout in Florida.  The Panhandle of Florida especially remembers the early call to Gore before their polls had closed and will probably not take this election lightly.  In fact, I doubt anyone in Florida will.

The truth is that the hurricanes might actually help Bush, because as of right now, both he and his brother are receiving exemplary marks from all polls on their handling of the situation and that might tend to overshadow other issues in the state and the nation at large.

[Mort from NewYawk]

I believe the election will not be particularly close. But if it is, Bush does not NEED Wisconsin, Kerry does and if ain't got it, he ain't got Florida either.

The best bellweather here is Ohio; currently it's decent Bush lean is nationally indicative.

This is a good analysis. Although I said earlier that FL and PA together now hold the collective weight to decide the election, it's true that states like OH and MO go with the winner most often (OH with every GOP winner, and MO with every winner?).

Three or four months ago, when both of them looked like tossups, the national PV polls were split and the entire election felt like a true tossup.

Since OH and MO have started turning darker shades of Republican on most poll maps, my stomach is settling down a bit.

But it ain't over yet.

[Rococo4]

Point taken, but unless Kerry can make any headway in any large red states (excepting WV, NH, NV), if Bush wins Ohio, Florida and any state with more than 8 electoral votes (Wisconsin is one of those), he will win regardless of a Kerry small-state strategy.

I also must respectfully disagree with the idea that these hurricanes are going to cause any lower turnout in Florida.  The Panhandle of Florida especially remembers the early call to Gore before their polls had closed and will probably not take this election lightly.  In fact, I doubt anyone in Florida will.

The truth is that the hurricanes might actually help Bush, because as of right now, both he and his brother are receiving exemplary marks from all polls on their handling of the situation and that might tend to overshadow other issues in the state and the nation at large.

Thats why I am still so uncertain about Bush winning FL - after what happened in 2000, you would have to assume a huge turnout - its just so unpredictable....I think Bush is ahead, but until Brit Hume tells me Bush won Florida, I wil still be so nervous.  I think Republicans assuming Bush will win Florida just because the economy is good there are not taking 2000 into account

[J. J.]

I believe the election will not be particularly close. But if it is, Bush does not NEED Wisconsin, Kerry does and if ain't got it, he ain't got Florida either.

The best bellweather here is Ohio; currently it's decent Bush lean is nationally indicative.

This is a good analysis. Although I said earlier that FL and PA together now hold the collective weight to decide the election, it's true that states like OH and MO go with the winner most often (OH with every GOP winner, and MO with every winner?).

Three or four months ago, when both of them looked like tossups, the national PV polls were split and the entire election felt like a true tossup.

Since OH and MO have started turning darker shades of Republican on most poll maps, my stomach is settling down a bit.

But it ain't over yet.

MO went for Stevenson in 1956.

It is getting to the point where Kerry just does not have the math to win.  If I really had to pick a bellweather state, it would be FL, but that's looking better and better for Bush; if won, that would be his second largest state.

What I'm looking at, however, is Kerry putting all of his resources in there and pulling out of NJ, PA, and the upper mid-west.  I don't think it would be a good strategy, but let's face it, Kerry's campaign hasn't been that strategically minded as of late.

[J-Mann]

What I'm looking at, however, is Kerry putting all of his resources in there and pulling out of NJ, PA, and the upper mid-west.  I don't think it would be a good strategy, but let's face it, Kerry's campaign hasn't been that strategically minded as of late.

That would be suicide.  I've already heard rumors floating about that the Kerry camp was considering pulling out of Ohio (not officially, of course, but for all practical purposes).  I'm quite positive that New Jersey will vote Kerry despite a few polls showing a tight race there.  He probably could afford to pull out there, and maybe in Michigan, too.  But no way could he pull out of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Minnesota, especially with five long weeks to go before election day.  The collective 41 votes there would more than make up for a Florida loss, regardless of which campaign loses Florida.  It looks as if Bush could afford to lose Florida while winning PA, WI, and MN.  Kerry absolutely could not.  He won't pull out of those states.

Edit: I can't forget Iowa, either.  It's still in play.  Again, a Kerry shift to a total Florida focus would be ludicrous.

[J. J.]

What I'm looking at, however, is Kerry putting all of his resources in there and pulling out of NJ, PA, and the upper mid-west.  I don't think it would be a good strategy, but let's face it, Kerry's campaign hasn't been that strategically minded as of late.

That would be suicide.  I've already heard rumors floating about that the Kerry camp was considering pulling out of Ohio (not officially, of course, but for all practical purposes).  I'm quite positive that New Jersey will vote Kerry despite a few polls showing a tight race there.  

I agree that it's far from a good strategy.  What I'm looking at is that, late October, Kerry takes an all or nothing shot, or something close to it.  He decides that PA will hold and launches a full attack on FL; he diverts the money from the Phila media market (keeps it in Pittsburgh, Scranton, and Altoona); he decides that he's solid in MI and IL (he is) and that MN will go to him without much more effort.  He puts it all into FL.

Now, in that case, WI is not a bellweather state; PA is.  For Kerry to win, he has to bite off a state Bush carried in 2000.  He could.  The price of that would probably be losing NJ and PA.  

NJ is a toss-up, IMO, at this point; PA certainly is.

Basically, the bellweather state is the state where, in the last days, Kerry says, in effect, "Okay, we'll risk it.  We're cutting back."

I think a far better strategy would be to write off everything south of the Ohio/Potomac line and hit New England, NJ, PA, and the Mid-West.  It was a mistake to pull out of MO.