How vulnerable are these congressmen in the upcoming midterms?

[Ronnie]

Dave Reichert
Tom McClinock
Ken Calvert
Jim McNerney
Betsy Markey
John Fleming
Erik Paulsen
Jim Gerlach
Kathy Dahlkemper
Paul Kanjorski


It's kind of difficult to form an opinion for any of these candidates.  Any help?

[Lunar]

Tom is safe supposing he, you know, eventually moves to Northern California somewhere

[Mr.Phips]

Dave Reichert
Tom McClinock
Ken Calvert
Jim McNerney
Betsy Markey
John Fleming
Erik Paulsen
Jim Gerlach
Kathy Dahlkemper
Paul Kanjorski


It's kind of difficult to form an opinion for any of these candidates.  Any help?

Probably Markey is the only truly vulnerable one of the bunch.  Gerlach will likely get a better challenger this time as will Paulsen, but the others are now fairly entrenched.  Some will say that Dahlkemper is quite vulnerable, but PA-03 is a traditionally Democratic district and Dahlkemper is a good fit there(much like Altmire in PA-04).  The only thing that could really hurt Dahlkemper is if Obama pushes gun control, which is pretty much unthinkable at this point.  

[Nixon in '80]

Tom is safe supposing he, you know, eventually moves to Northern California somewhere

This made me LOL...

I agree, Tom's safe unless the Democratic Congress somehow manages to balance the budget, stabilize Iraq, withdraw from Iraq, stabilize Afghanistan, withdraw from Afghanistan, fix Social Security, and institute perfect national health care...

and Tom was fighting them the entire way...

and then he sodomized a puppy on C-SPAN.

[Meeker]

Candidates and actual campaigns are really much, much more important than this forum often gives credit to. Voting history/patterns and national trends only account for so much.

So with that in mind, I have no idea. Ask me in a year or so

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Dave Reichert - Would be fairly competitive assuming they can find someone who's not Darcy Burner to run against him.
Tom McClinock - Not likely to be competitive, but it is Tom McClintock.
Ken Calvert - Probably the best chance for a pickup (excluding Cao) the Democrats have at the moment. 51% against a poorly-funded opponent sounds kind of like Robin Hayes.
Jerry McNerney - the Republicans have a shot if they can find a star candidate, but Jerry's starting to get entrenched.
Betsy Markey - Tossup with a slight Democratic lean; Markey has a shot at holding the district depending on how the midterms go.
John Fleming - Safe; Carmouche was the only Dem who could have won this seat.
Erik Paulsen - Lean Republican; if he votes as right-wing as he supposedly is, he'll be painting a big target on his back. Democrats could have won this with a better candidate, but that's par for the course with the DFL.
Jim Gerlach - Probably will get another term if he runs again; if he goes for Governor it will probably flip.
Kathy Dahlkemper - I don't know anything about her, but she did beat an incumbent while having a lot less cash. Guess it depends, again, on who the Republicans run.
Paul Kanjorski - If Barletta runs again, Kanjo'll lose. If he retires and Barletta runs, it would probably be 50/50. If Barletta doesn't run, it'll be safe.

[Ronnie]

PA-03 is not a Democratic district.  It was 50-50 in the 2008 presidential election, and Bush won it both times.  I think Dahlkemper won because she was carried by the Obama coattails in Erie, and English didn't have much support in places like Mercer and traditionally Republican Butler.

[Mr.Phips]

PA-03 is not a Democratic district.  It was 50-50 in the 2008 presidential election, and Bush won it both times.  I think Dahlkemper won because she was carried by the Obama coattails in Erie, and English didn't have much support in places like Mercer and traditionally Republican Butler.

Look at the registration statistics there.  Democrats hold a significant edge and I dont think Republicans have much of a bench in the district. 

[CultureKing]

A credible candidate against Reichart would have a good chance at winning. We just need someone who has some real elected experience.

[Sam Spade]

Dave Reichert - Not being successful in two heavily Democratic years means that you don't just need "a better candidate than Darcy Burner" to win come 2010, most likely.

Tom McClintock - I'd be surprised if this was competitive.

Ken Calvert - Calvert was never particularly strong in the 1990s, but gained a decent bit during this decade.  He's never been liked among conservative Rs.  Generically, Republicans around this area performed pretty weakly this year downballot.  However, looking at the past few performances, theoretically, it's not easy to explain.  But he will almost undoubtedly be running in more favorable conditions in 2010.  One to watch, but not overly so.

Jim McNerney - I actually thought McNerney's performance was rather weak, all told.  We'll see.  I would watch it, a little.

Betsy Markey - Hard to tell anything when running against Ms. Musgrave.  I'd keep my eye on it, for sure and the GOP probably will too.

John Fleming - Not while a black man is President in this area of the world

Erik Paulsen - Paulsen performed stronger than I expected (although I did predict victory).  This CD, while quite marginal, always has a Republican tinge in House races, which, if Paulsen is competent, will help a good deal.

Jim Gerlach - Always in danger.

Kathy Dahlkemper - Should be ok, unless a wave forms.  Although didn't she outrun Obama?

Paul Kanjorski - Unless more scandals pile, this was the year for Republicans.  Unless a wave forms, and probably not then.

[Mr.Phips]

Dave Reichert - Not being successful in two heavily Democratic years means that you don't just need "a better candidate than Darcy Burner" to win come 2010, most likely.

Tom McClintock - I'd be surprised if this was competitive.

Ken Calvert - Calvert was never particularly strong in the 1990s, but gained a decent bit during this decade.  He's never been liked among conservative Rs.  Generically, Republicans around this area performed pretty weakly this year downballot.  However, looking at the past few performances, theoretically, it's not easy to explain.  But he will almost undoubtedly be running in more favorable conditions in 2010.  One to watch, but not overly so.

Jim McNerney - I actually thought McNerney's performance was rather weak, all told.  We'll see.  I would watch it, a little.

Betsy Markey - Hard to tell anything when running against Ms. Musgrave.  I'd keep my eye on it, for sure and the GOP probably will too.

John Fleming - Not while a black man is President in this area of the world

Erik Paulsen - Paulsen performed stronger than I expected (although I did predict victory).  This CD, while quite marginal, always has a Republican tinge in House races, which, if Paulsen is competent, will help a good deal.

Jim Gerlach - Always in danger.

Kathy Dahlkemper - Should be ok, unless a wave forms.  Although didn't she outrun Obama?

Dahlkemper got 52% while Obama got 50% in the district.  Any non-incumbent who can run ahead of their Presidential ticket is obviously quite strong. 

The problem for Republicans with McNerney is that the only part of the district where they have any kind of bench is the San Joqauin portion and even there they are starting to lose strength. 

[Ronnie]

Dave Reichert - Not being successful in two heavily Democratic years means that you don't just need "a better candidate than Darcy Burner" to win come 2010, most likely.

Tom McClintock - I'd be surprised if this was competitive.

Ken Calvert - Calvert was never particularly strong in the 1990s, but gained a decent bit during this decade.  He's never been liked among conservative Rs.  Generically, Republicans around this area performed pretty weakly this year downballot.  However, looking at the past few performances, theoretically, it's not easy to explain.  But he will almost undoubtedly be running in more favorable conditions in 2010.  One to watch, but not overly so.

Jim McNerney - I actually thought McNerney's performance was rather weak, all told.  We'll see.  I would watch it, a little.

Betsy Markey - Hard to tell anything when running against Ms. Musgrave.  I'd keep my eye on it, for sure and the GOP probably will too.

John Fleming - Not while a black man is President in this area of the world

Erik Paulsen - Paulsen performed stronger than I expected (although I did predict victory).  This CD, while quite marginal, always has a Republican tinge in House races, which, if Paulsen is competent, will help a good deal.

Jim Gerlach - Always in danger.

Kathy Dahlkemper - Should be ok, unless a wave forms.  Although didn't she outrun Obama?

Dahlkemper got 52% while Obama got 50% in the district.  Any non-incumbent who can run ahead of their Presidential ticket is obviously quite strong. 

Yeah, Obama barely won the district I think, while Dahlkemper ran strongly.  By the way, do you know the exact percentages for the presidential results in PA-03?

[Mr.Phips]

Dave Reichert - Not being successful in two heavily Democratic years means that you don't just need "a better candidate than Darcy Burner" to win come 2010, most likely.

Tom McClintock - I'd be surprised if this was competitive.

Ken Calvert - Calvert was never particularly strong in the 1990s, but gained a decent bit during this decade.  He's never been liked among conservative Rs.  Generically, Republicans around this area performed pretty weakly this year downballot.  However, looking at the past few performances, theoretically, it's not easy to explain.  But he will almost undoubtedly be running in more favorable conditions in 2010.  One to watch, but not overly so.

Jim McNerney - I actually thought McNerney's performance was rather weak, all told.  We'll see.  I would watch it, a little.

Betsy Markey - Hard to tell anything when running against Ms. Musgrave.  I'd keep my eye on it, for sure and the GOP probably will too.

John Fleming - Not while a black man is President in this area of the world

Erik Paulsen - Paulsen performed stronger than I expected (although I did predict victory).  This CD, while quite marginal, always has a Republican tinge in House races, which, if Paulsen is competent, will help a good deal.

Jim Gerlach - Always in danger.

Kathy Dahlkemper - Should be ok, unless a wave forms.  Although didn't she outrun Obama?

Dahlkemper got 52% while Obama got 50% in the district.  Any non-incumbent who can run ahead of their Presidential ticket is obviously quite strong. 

Yeah, Obama barely won the district I think, while Dahlkemper ran strongly.  By the way, do you know the exact percentages for the presidential results in PA-03?

Im pretty sure it was exactly 50/50 with Obama a little ahead. 

[ilikeverin]

Paulsen is safe until he wants to retire, presuming his voting record stays as moderate as his rhetoric straightjacked him into.  (After about 5 terms, he's safe pretty much no matter what )

Democrats could have won this with a better candidate

HEY

[Mr.Phips]

Paulsen is safe until he wants to retire, presuming his voting record stays as moderate as his rhetoric straightjacked him into.  (After about 5 terms, he's safe pretty much no matter what )

If he has a voting record like Ramstad's, that will be true. 

[Ronnie]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

[Mr.Phips]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

[Ronnie]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

[Mr.Phips]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

[Ronnie]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

So, the redistricting map will look kind of like this?

[Mr.Phips]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

So, the redistricting map will look kind of like this?

Something like that.  LA-02 will also probably have to expand to take in all of Orleans county. 

[Ronnie]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

So, the redistricting map will look kind of like this?

Something like that.  LA-02 will also probably have to expand to take in all of Orleans county. 

Yeah, oops.  I forgot to fill in Metairie.



Speaking of this, there's no way LA-02 doesn't become significantly more Republican, because of all the population loss.  Metairie votes overwhelmingly Republican, and since there is population growth in St. Tammany, there won't be much of a need for the city to be in the same district.

[Mr.Phips]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

So, the redistricting map will look kind of like this?

Something like that.  LA-02 will also probably have to expand to take in all of Orleans county. 

Yeah, oops.  I forgot to fill in Metairie.



Speaking of this, there's no way LA-02 doesn't become significantly more Republican, because of all the population loss.  Metairie votes overwhelmingly Republican, and since there is population growth in St. Tammany, there won't be much of a need for the city to be in the same district.

Yes, but LA-02 would still be heavily Democratic and have a black majority.  The Obama percentage would probably drop from around 74% to 66% and the black percentage drop from 64% to around 56%.  Still pretty much off limits for Republicans in a normal turnout election. 

[Ronnie]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

So, the redistricting map will look kind of like this?

Something like that.  LA-02 will also probably have to expand to take in all of Orleans county. 

Yeah, oops.  I forgot to fill in Metairie.



Speaking of this, there's no way LA-02 doesn't become significantly more Republican, because of all the population loss.  Metairie votes overwhelmingly Republican, and since there is population growth in St. Tammany, there won't be much of a need for the city to be in the same district.

Yes, but LA-02 would still be heavily Democratic and have a black majority.  The Obama percentage would probably drop from around 74% to 66% and the black percentage drop from 64% to around 56%.  Still pretty much off limits for Republicans in a normal turnout election. 

When will the redistricting be effective?  2012?  Because if it's 2010, Joseph Cao would be able to pull off somewhat of a Chet Edwards if he is popular.

[Mr.Phips]

With regards to Louisiana, is there any chance that John Fleming won't be congressman after the next redistricting process?  I really don't know how that works.

Sure there is a chance.  Democrats control the legislature and Republicans will have five of the seven House seats, meaning that one of those five is likely to be eliminated.  My guess is that Alexander and Fleming are put into the same district. 

I was actually thinking that the redistricting would be closer to New Orleans, but I didn't know that Democrats control the legislature.  Any chance that we can regain the legislature?  

The next election doesnt occur until November 2011, when redistricting will already be completed. 

So, the redistricting map will look kind of like this?

Something like that.  LA-02 will also probably have to expand to take in all of Orleans county. 

Yeah, oops.  I forgot to fill in Metairie.



Speaking of this, there's no way LA-02 doesn't become significantly more Republican, because of all the population loss.  Metairie votes overwhelmingly Republican, and since there is population growth in St. Tammany, there won't be much of a need for the city to be in the same district.

Yes, but LA-02 would still be heavily Democratic and have a black majority.  The Obama percentage would probably drop from around 74% to 66% and the black percentage drop from 64% to around 56%.  Still pretty much off limits for Republicans in a normal turnout election. 

When will the redistricting be effective?  2012?  Because if it's 2010, Joseph Cao would be able to pull off somewhat of a Chet Edwards if he is popular.

It will be effective for 2012.  I dont think Cao would be able to pull off a Chet Edwards.  LA-02 has too many straight ticket Dem voters(blacks) for him to survive.