Come on, folks, this is an interesting one. To provoke you, I'll put up what I think could be best case scenarios for both Clinton and Powell and stipulate that the results would fall somewhere in between.
Best Clinton Scenario:
Clinton, on the heels of successful showdowns with Republicans in 1995 and a moderate
but consistent uptick in job growth and the economy, along with a successful confrontation
with the Chinese in the Taiwan Straight, runs a strong campaign. Powerll challenges him
in all the major states in a heated series of debates in which both candidates impress the electorate. On election day, with record voter turnout, Clinton, with slightly better organization, barely edges out Powell in most of the key swing states, though he surrenders
some territory to Powell in the Appalachian and Western regions. His popular vote margin is far more slim than the electoral vote result:
Clinton/Gore 348
Powell/Kemp 190
Best Powell Scenario:
Powell strikes a compelling contrast to Clinton, with his years of military experience and personal integrity. In the general election, he criticizes Clinton's foriegn policy and military decisions based on his brief stint as Clinton's incoming Joint Chiefs Chairman. African-American voters are torn between their favor of Clinton's policies and the prospect of electing Powell, and their vote is consequently split down the middle. On election day, Powell edges out Clinton in Florida and Ohio and, dramatically, scores a razor-thin victory in Pennsylvania, eeking out a slim win in both the popular vote and electoral college and making history.
Powell/Kemp 282
Clinton/Gore 256
Any takers?