MO presidential and gubernatorial result differences
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  MO presidential and gubernatorial result differences
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Author Topic: MO presidential and gubernatorial result differences  (Read 2146 times)
RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
Junior Chimp
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« on: January 03, 2009, 04:01:40 PM »

Why did MO go Republican by such a small margin in the presidential election despite voting Democrat for governor by such a huge one?
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2009, 04:33:48 PM »

They liked the Democratic candidate for Governor. They didn't like the Republican candidate for Governor. (Although why is an interesting question - didn't look like a weak candidate on paper). They liked both Presidential candidates about equally.
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RBH
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« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2009, 11:58:42 PM »

Nixon has been a popular statewide officeholder for 16 years. Hulshof ran an incoherent campaign that was dogged by the primary fight he had with Sarah Steelman where Steelman criticized Hulshof on polk-barrel spending, and so on.

Nixon ran a much more focused campaign. Hulshof never really defined what he was offering.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2009, 01:36:06 AM »

Obama could have won MO if he invested more. MO was a state in which the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign spent about the same amount (ca. 10 Mio. $ each), whereas the Obama campaign outspent McCain by 3:1 in places like Virginia (24 to 8 Mio.) ...

Obama ended the campaign with 30 Mio. cash on hand, maybe if he invested another 10 Mio. in the state, campaigned more often in rural parts of the state (together with Nixon), it could have made up the 4000 vote difference ...

But MO was a difficult state anyway, it trended away from the DEM Presidential candidate since at least 1988 ...
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Holmes
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2009, 01:18:52 PM »

campaigned more often in rural parts of the state
To be fair, he had a crowd of about 40,000 in Springfield before the election... and still lost that county. Maybe he thought that was good enough.
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nclib
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2009, 11:02:40 PM »

As an aside, didn't Nixon do terribly with blacks (relatively speaking) in a Senate race against Bond years ago? Has he improved that?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2009, 01:33:14 AM »

As an aside, didn't Nixon do terribly with blacks (relatively speaking) in a Senate race against Bond years ago? Has he improved that?

CNN Exit Poll for MO Blacks:

Nixon - 90%
Hulshof - 7%
Others - 3%

Obama - 93%
McCain - 7%
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Hashemite
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2009, 07:56:29 AM »

1998 Senate, Bond vs. Nixon

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phk
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2009, 04:25:20 PM »

campaigned more often in rural parts of the state
To be fair, he had a crowd of about 40,000 in Springfield before the election... and still lost that county. Maybe he thought that was good enough.

I'm sure politicos realize that supporters from other counties come too though.
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