Alright, Huntsman Jr.

[Lunar]

Obviously I don't need this since I've been a booster of his political prospects for over a year now, but for newcomers:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Huntsman,_Jr.

He's expressed interest in running for the presidency.

Here's my question.  What would need to come together for him to secure the nomination?  For once, I won't preach [but get ready for it later].  Will Huntsman's prospects of beating out his primary opponents go up if Obama does well his in his first term, or will Huntsman do worse if Republican potentials smell blood?

Given the primary schedule I would assume Huntsman would need to win the plurality in Iowa to have a chance

[Lunar]

Indeed.

A better question is how does Huntsman Jr. differentiate himself from a generic Republican?

*International experience & speaks Chinese fluently (if China's on people's mind)
*Two adopted Asian daughters & nice family
*Quite religious but perhaps not the right kind of religious (good for some, bad for Southern Baptists)
*Business experience and thus far a pretty darn good term in office
*Fairly moderate & like McCain was a vocal proponent of reducing global warming before it became cool for Republicans to do so

That's about it.  I think he could play ok in the Southwest but would have a harder time in states like North Carolina where Southern Baptists may prefer a black Christian incumbent over a Mormon

[Lunar]

How would that affect potential tossup states?

Well, the Mormon things affects Southern tossup states.

He has a nice biography/image, and plenty of experience in almost every arena, I guess that's the only difference, but that's the type of thing most people vote on anyway.  Obviously the biggest difference is who can run the best campaign that connects with the most people.

I suppose if a GOP candidate had labor connections he could appeal to the Midwest or if the candidate was Hispanic that could help in various states.  *shrug*  I guess I think a successful candidacy is built less on microtargeting swing-state demographics and more on managerial skills, positive image projection [likability, seems aware of people's problems, speaking skills],  and a great campaign platform.   I look at people like Huntsman Jr. and Bobby Jindal and I think of them as people that could manage a solid campaign while I look at Palin and I just have no trust in her ability to surround herself with competent people and create minimal campaign-derailing gaffes.

[Lunar]

How would that affect potential tossup states?

Maybe something like this, if Obama approve ratings are in the mid-50s.

I don't know, I think he's a generic Republican who might do a little bit better in the West than an anti-environmental type and worse in the South than a non-Mormon.  If he wins it's because of something besides microtargeting swing state demographics.  I mean, like I said, it'd be nice for the GOP's electoral-map prospects to have a Republican that's a member of a Union or is Hispanic or something that is important in swing states, but I just don't see that in 2012.

I don't think a map is particularly relevant, since it's basically our own personal opinions.


One interesting thing is that I think that Southern discomfort with Mormons would have been much more mitigated in this election with Obama's own religion/legitimacy/etc in doubt.  I imagine if Obama can keep up religious & devout pretenses over the next four years, an admittedly small [but significant?] number of Southerners who would vote against a Mormon for his religion will have an easier time doing so in '12 than in 2008