2012: Obama v. Huntsman
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Author Topic: 2012: Obama v. Huntsman  (Read 5891 times)
Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« on: January 04, 2009, 04:35:18 PM »
Democrats:
President Barack Obama (Illinois)
Vice President Joe Biden (Delaware)

Republicans:
Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (Utah)
Governor Charlie Crist (Florida)
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Purple State
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« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2009, 04:41:43 PM »
What are the assumptions? I don't think that Republican ticket would have a chance in almost any scenario. You may see some of Obama's numbers erode slightly with Crist helping take Florida, but this would still be a slaughter.
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Kevin
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« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2009, 04:41:55 PM »
Quote from: benconstine on January 04, 2009, 04:35:18 PM
Democrats:
President Barack Obama (Illinois)
Vice President Joe Biden (Delaware)

Republicans:
Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. (Utah)
Governor Charlie Crist (Florida)

Too vague Beconstine, give me an idea of the national conditions at the time(especially the state of the economy) and Obama's overall approval ratings?
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2009, 04:43:39 PM »
Right, sorry.  Entering the election, Obama's approval rating stands at 55%; the economy hasn't fully recovered, but we're clearly out of danger, and beginning to rebound.  Iraq has stabilized somewhat, and Obama is starting to pull out troops, though slowly.  The GOP suffered minor losses in 2010 in both Houses.
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Purple State
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« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2009, 05:00:47 PM »
Quote from: benconstine on January 04, 2009, 04:43:39 PM
Right, sorry.  Entering the election, Obama's approval rating stands at 55%; the economy hasn't fully recovered, but we're clearly out of danger, and beginning to rebound.  Iraq has stabilized somewhat, and Obama is starting to pull out troops, though slowly.  The GOP suffered minor losses in 2010 in both Houses.

Oh, that is easy. Obama would probably win no matter the competition, short of Lincoln's resurrection.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2009, 05:06:24 PM »
does Huntsman swing Salt Lake County?
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Bacon King
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« Reply #6 on: January 04, 2009, 05:47:41 PM »

He did win it with 69% at the same time Obama won it with 48%.
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #7 on: January 04, 2009, 06:21:25 PM »
who is jon huntsman
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Purple State
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« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2009, 07:04:52 PM »
Governor of Utah in his second term.
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2009, 09:41:42 PM »
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Daniel Z
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« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2009, 10:15:09 PM »
With 55% approval Obama wins reelection. The map is the same other than the republicans winning NE-2, Indiana, and North Carolina.
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YRABNNRM
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« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2009, 10:31:48 PM »
Huntsman and Crist could be twins.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2009, 02:04:29 PM »

LOL on the "Utah candidate swings Colorado" allusion. Very clever.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2009, 03:47:57 PM »
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2009, 06:39:05 PM »
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Purple State
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2009, 07:13:01 PM »

Why is NC flipping?
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2009, 07:45:46 PM »
NC will flip assuming Obama doesn't have as much money. Obama only won NC and IN because he had the money to campaign there.
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Purple State
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2009, 08:02:13 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on January 05, 2009, 07:45:46 PM
NC will flip assuming Obama doesn't have as much money. Obama only won NC and IN because he had the money to campaign there.

People tend to vote a) for the incumbent, b) for the person they suspect will win, and c) the person they voted for last time.

Plus, a President doesn't need to spend money to promote his agenda. It will be easier for Obama to get re-elected.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2009, 08:10:29 PM »
Quote from: Mideast Assemblyman Purple State on January 05, 2009, 08:02:13 PM
Quote from: tmthforu94 on January 05, 2009, 07:45:46 PM
NC will flip assuming Obama doesn't have as much money. Obama only won NC and IN because he had the money to campaign there.

People tend to vote a) for the incumbent, b) for the person they suspect will win, and c) the person they voted for last time.

Plus, a President doesn't need to spend money to promote his agenda. It will be easier for Obama to get re-elected.
But with states like North Carolina and Indiana, where Obama won with <1% and >1% respectively, this hardly applies compared to other states. I'm not saying they won't be going for Obama, and if another election were today, saying he wins them again wouldn't be crazy, but we'll have to see in 3 years.
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2009, 08:16:44 PM »

colorado has a notable mormon minority
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2009, 08:17:43 PM »

it was 2.13% in 1990.  so, no.
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Lunar
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« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2009, 08:20:46 PM »
« Edited: January 05, 2009, 08:23:27 PM by Lunar »



no, not really notable.  Georgia has a significantly higher percentage of Asians than Colorado has Mormons (who almost all vote Republican anyway)
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Matt Damon™
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« Reply #22 on: January 05, 2009, 08:25:12 PM »
Weird. I thought it'd be higher. -_-

Here's the revised guess
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #23 on: January 05, 2009, 08:39:12 PM »
Obama won Nevada by 12.5% with Mormons comprising no more than 7% of the electorate.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2009, 10:20:47 PM »
Quote from: Mura on January 05, 2009, 08:25:12 PM
Weird. I thought it'd be higher. -_-

Here's the revised guess



Flip NV and MT, maybe even give Huntsman MO.
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