Politico releases new congressional study

[Ronnie]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1208/16816.html

They predict that Texas will pick up three seats in Congress. Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and Utah would gain one seat each. Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania would each lose one.

Though, I find something surprising in this article:

"On the flip side, some states have made great gains over the last two years that could help them in the decennial redistricting. Louisiana was the only state to lose residents after Hurricane Katrina hit, and many observers expected it would end up losing one of its seven House seats. But over the last two years, Louisiana has seen a population surge, with many residents returning home. That trend may be enough for the state to keep all its House seats."

[Keystone Phil]

Good stuff though I don't like PA losing.

[minionofmidas]

Do something against it.

You have six months to father as many extra Pennsylvanians as you can. Say you father four children a day, that makes 720 extra Pennsylvanians. It might be enough to make a difference.

[Ronnie]

Good stuff though I don't like PA losing.

Yeah, we'll probably lose another house seat because of it.  I'm guessing they'll merge District 9 with Part of District 10, getting rid of either Shuster or Thompson.

[Holmes]

Ohio losing only one? We'll see about that...

[Brittain33]

Wasn't Louisiana at risk of losing a seat even without Katrina? I am skeptical.

This article doesn't make it clear what the difference is between these numbers and those that have the midwest taking more of a hit, losing 4 more seats. I hope neither one is "if we apportioned today" which would be useless.

[Keystone Phil]

Do something against it.

You have six months to father as many extra Pennsylvanians as you can. Say you father four children a day, that makes 720 extra Pennsylvanians. It might be enough to make a difference.

Santorum has made a difference.  

Cue to...

OMG BUT HE'S A VIRGINIAN!!

Good stuff though I don't like PA losing.

Yeah, we'll probably lose another house seat because of it.  I'm guessing they'll merge District 9 with Part of District 10, getting rid of either Shuster or Thompson.

You a Pennsylvanian?

It depends on who controls the legislature in 2010. If the GOP gains back the House and if PA 3 is still in Dem hands, they might try to carve up that district (give some more Dem areas to Thompson in the safe GOP 5th district and give us a chance to get the 3rd back).

[Ronnie]

Wasn't Louisiana at risk of losing a seat even without Katrina? I am skeptical.

This article doesn't make it clear what the difference is between these numbers and those that have the midwest taking more of a hit, losing 4 more seats. I hope neither one is "if we apportioned today" which would be useless.

If you look at out of New Orleans metro in the presidential election, there is a good amount of population growth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose that there's always the dreadful possibility of PA-12 being taken to its logical conclusion; you know, loop it back across the other side of Pittsburgh to pick up various industrial towns currently in PA-4.

[Ronnie]

Good stuff though I don't like PA losing.

Yeah, we'll probably lose another house seat because of it.  I'm guessing they'll merge District 9 with Part of District 10, getting rid of either Shuster or Thompson.


You a Pennsylvanian?

It depends on who controls the legislature in 2010. If the GOP gains back the House and if PA 3 is still in Dem hands, they might try to carve up that district (give some more Dem areas to Thompson in the safe GOP 5th district and give us a chance to get the 3rd back).

Ha, good point.  It kind of depends on the senatorial and gubernatorial elections that are going to take place that year.  If the GOP candidates win, the GOP will probably {temporarily} regain the legislature, but I still give the Dems a narrow advantage, since Strickland will probably win.

[Keystone Phil]

Good stuff though I don't like PA losing.

Yeah, we'll probably lose another house seat because of it.  I'm guessing they'll merge District 9 with Part of District 10, getting rid of either Shuster or Thompson.


You a Pennsylvanian?

It depends on who controls the legislature in 2010. If the GOP gains back the House and if PA 3 is still in Dem hands, they might try to carve up that district (give some more Dem areas to Thompson in the safe GOP 5th district and give us a chance to get the 3rd back).

Ha, good point.  It kind of depends on the senatorial and gubernatorial elections that are going to take place that year.  If the GOP candidates win, the GOP will probably {temporarily} regain the legislature, but I still give the Dems a narrow advantage, since Strickland will probably win.

Wait...what? Strickland? That's Ohio, my friend. We're talking PA here. 

[Ronnie]

Good stuff though I don't like PA losing.

Yeah, we'll probably lose another house seat because of it.  I'm guessing they'll merge District 9 with Part of District 10, getting rid of either Shuster or Thompson.


You a Pennsylvanian?

It depends on who controls the legislature in 2010. If the GOP gains back the House and if PA 3 is still in Dem hands, they might try to carve up that district (give some more Dem areas to Thompson in the safe GOP 5th district and give us a chance to get the 3rd back).

Ha, good point.  It kind of depends on the senatorial and gubernatorial elections that are going to take place that year.  If the GOP candidates win, the GOP will probably {temporarily} regain the legislature, but I still give the Dems a narrow advantage, since Strickland will probably win.

Wait...what? Strickland? That's Ohio, my friend. We're talking PA here. 

Crap, another brain fart.

What I meant to say is that the GOP has to nominate a really good gubernatorial candidate to be able to pull in some legislative seats with him.  Tom Corbett seems like a safe bet, but I'm a bit skeptical.

[Keystone Phil]

What I meant to say is that the GOP has to nominate a really good gubernatorial candidate to be able to pull in some legislative seats with him.  Tom Corbett seems like a safe bet, but I'm a bit skeptical.

We only need three seats to win back the House but it would help if we had a strong Gubernatorial nominee. Corbett will be fine.

[Sam Spade]

I suppose that there's always the dreadful possibility of PA-12 being taken to its logical conclusion; you know, loop it back across the other side of Pittsburgh to pick up various industrial towns currently in PA-4.

That would put Altmire in a good bit more trouble, I presume.  Or is his residence in those industrial towns (I don't know), which would open up that seat as it becomes more suburban-centric.  Murtha isn't going to last forever.

[Ronnie]

What I meant to say is that the GOP has to nominate a really good gubernatorial candidate to be able to pull in some legislative seats with him.  Tom Corbett seems like a safe bet, but I'm a bit skeptical.

We only need three seats to win back the House but it would help if we had a strong Gubernatorial nominee. Corbett will be fine.

You better pray then, that Kanjorski gets in another corruption scandal, Dahlkemper doesn't get entrenched, Gerlach survives, and there is some sort of an upset to Carney.

I find all of them happening to be almost impossible, but hey, if you want to consider the possibility of Obama utterly failing, go ahead.

Edit: Oops, I think you're talking about the PA house.  NVM, if so.

[Keystone Phil]

Edit: Oops, I think you're talking about the PA house.  NVM, if so.

Yes 

But PA 3 and 10 are definitely possible pickup opportunities (the 10th would almost be likely) if Obama screws up.

[Ronnie]

Edit: Oops, I think you're talking about the PA house.  NVM, if so.

Yes 

But PA 3 and 10 are definitely possible pickup opportunities (the 10th would almost be likely) if Obama screws up.

Eh, I think a pickup of PA 11 is a little more likely, because Kanjorski's numbers were inflated in Lackawanna county, due to Obama's numbers there.  If Barletta would run again, and bring Kanjorski's numbers in Lackawanna down to about 55%, and bumping his numbers in Luzerne a bit, while retaining about the same vote everywhere else, he'd win.

It could happen, since Kanjorski isn't the most popular congressman.

Plus, Carney seems entrenched, and overperformed Obama (by a lot).

[Keystone Phil]

Edit: Oops, I think you're talking about the PA house.  NVM, if so.

Yes 

But PA 3 and 10 are definitely possible pickup opportunities (the 10th would almost be likely) if Obama screws up.

Eh, I think a pickup of PA 11 is a little more likely, because Kanjorski's numbers were inflated in Lackawanna county, due to Obama's numbers there.  If Barletta would run again, and bring Kanjorski's numbers in Lackawanna down to about 55%, and bumping his numbers in Luzerne a bit, while retaining about the same vote everywhere else, he'd win.

It could happen, since Kanjorski isn't the most popular congressman.

Plus, Carney seems entrenched, and overperformed Obama (by a lot).

Kanjo can be beat (would have to have Barletta as an opponent...again. Not likely) but Carney's district is actually a strong Republican district.

[Ronnie]

Edit: Oops, I think you're talking about the PA house.  NVM, if so.

Yes 

But PA 3 and 10 are definitely possible pickup opportunities (the 10th would almost be likely) if Obama screws up.

Eh, I think a pickup of PA 11 is a little more likely, because Kanjorski's numbers were inflated in Lackawanna county, due to Obama's numbers there.  If Barletta would run again, and bring Kanjorski's numbers in Lackawanna down to about 55%, and bumping his numbers in Luzerne a bit, while retaining about the same vote everywhere else, he'd win.

It could happen, since Kanjorski isn't the most popular congressman.

Plus, Carney seems entrenched, and overperformed Obama (by a lot).

Kanjo can be beat (would have to have Barletta as an opponent...again. Not likely) but Carney's district is actually a strong Republican district.

Yeah, duh.  But just because it's a heavily republican district, it doesn't mean that a Democrat can't retain it.  Look at Jim Matheson, Chet Edwards, Charlie Melancon, and John Salazar. 

Carney won by a good amount, which probably means he's entrenched.

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, duh.  But just because it's a heavily republican district, it doesn't mean that a Democrat can't retain it.  Look at Jim Matheson, Chet Edwards, Charlie Melancon, and John Salazar. 

Carney won by a good amount, which probably means he's entrenched.

Believe me, I know. I've argued that PA 10 wasn't a guaranteed pickup going into the 2008 elections. I worried that Carney could become another Tim Holden. However, he's not entrenched.

Carney may have won comfortably but that doesn't mean that his district isn't more prone to swing against him than Kanjo's. The 10th is a heavily Republican district and he will, at the very least, have a very close race on his hands if things get bad for Obama. Meanwhile, Kanjo has survived the worst situations. Sure, he won't have a Presidential election to help with turnout in his favor in 2010 but he also won't have Barletta as an opponent and probably won't have another major scandal.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, duh.  But just because it's a heavily republican district, it doesn't mean that a Democrat can't retain it.  Look at Jim Matheson, Chet Edwards, Charlie Melancon, and John Salazar. 

Carney won by a good amount, which probably means he's entrenched.

Believe me, I know. I've argued that PA 10 wasn't a guaranteed pickup going into the 2008 elections. I worried that Carney could become another Tim Holden. However, he's not entrenched.

Carney may have won comfortably but that doesn't mean that his district isn't more prone to swing against him than Kanjo's. The 10th is a heavily Republican district and he will, at the very least, have a very close race on his hands if things get bad for Obama. Meanwhile, Kanjo has survived the worst situations. Sure, he won't have a Presidential election to help with turnout in his favor in 2010 but he also won't have Barletta as an opponent and probably won't have another major scandal.

Carney's district is trending Democratic in the way that Murtha's is trending Republican.  McCain won the district by only 53%-46% after Bush won it 60%-40%, a smaller margin than he won PA-04 by.  Carney running 10 points ahead of McCain shows that has a pretty good hold on that district. 

[Ronnie]

 McCain won the district by only 53%-46% after Bush won it 60%-40%, a smaller margin than he won PA-04 by. 

Can you show me where you are getting these numbers from?  I've been looking everywhere and I can't find a good source other than Swingstateproject, but they hardly update.

[Mr.Phips]

 McCain won the district by only 53%-46% after Bush won it 60%-40%, a smaller margin than he won PA-04 by. 

Can you show me where you are getting these numbers from?  I've been looking everywhere and I can't find a good source other than Swingstateproject, but they hardly update.

What I did was take all of the whole counties in the district and then weigh the Lackawanna precincts according to their lean against the county average in 2004 and use that same lean against the 2008 county average. 

[Keystone Phil]

Carney's district is trending Democratic in the way that Murtha's is trending Republican.  McCain won the district by only 53%-46% after Bush won it 60%-40%, a smaller margin than he won PA-04 by.  Carney running 10 points ahead of McCain shows that has a pretty good hold on that district. 

Yeah, in a terrible year. The GOP has a significant voter registration advantage up there. You guys have one election result.

[Mr.Phips]

Carney's district is trending Democratic in the way that Murtha's is trending Republican.  McCain won the district by only 53%-46% after Bush won it 60%-40%, a smaller margin than he won PA-04 by.  Carney running 10 points ahead of McCain shows that has a pretty good hold on that district. 

Yeah, in a terrible year. The GOP has a significant voter registration advantage up there. You guys have one election result.

Two actually.  Democrats have a pretty significant edge in PA-18 and Tim Murphy is uber safe there.