Arkansas, 1976

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Why did Carter do so well here?  A swing of 68%, and it was Carter's second best state, at 64.9%.  What caused the huge swing and margin?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Hugely democratic state at the time, a perfect candidate for the state, less blacks equals less racial tensions then other southern states.

[minionofmidas]

less blacks equals less racial tensions then other southern states.

As seen by the 1968 and 1972 results (sorry, couldn't resist.)

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

It was actually one of the weaker deep southern states for Nixon in 72, and wallace didn't get 40% there.

If only we had exit polls for these elections, we could see exactly where the white vote was. Since blacks voted around 80% for carter, whatever part of the voting bloc they made up would have added to carter's margin. It's possible he wouldn't have gotten 60% without them.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If only we had exit polls for these elections, we could see exactly where the white vote was.

No you couldn't. You could see an estimate based on an exit poll, but that's all.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I shouldn't have said 'exactly', but those estimates do carry some weight.

[Mr.Phips]

Carter had to have gotten around 58% of the white vote here in '76. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Map of Carter's vote in '76:



Notice that he often did better outside the area with lots of blacks (may be as much a reflection of white voting patterns down by the river and this being still pretty soon after universal suffrage and so on). He actually lost some of those 70% counties in 1980.