Bush 52/43 in Ohio, Kerry 45/44 in New Jersey says Strategic Vision (R)

[The Vorlon]

Strategic Vision (R) Says...

Sept 24-26 N=801 MOE = +/- 3.5%

Ohio

Bush 52
Kerry 43

Last SV was 52/40

New Jersey

Jerry 45
Bush 44

Last SV was 46/43

This is the 9th out of the last 10 polls where NJ was within 4% of tied (!) - Kerry up in 7 of 9, but still

[MODU]

Another poll with Jersey in play?  Still not holding my breath, but at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Bush carries it narrowly.  

How many polls do you think will be released following the debates?  Might have to revisit Jersey in a month.

Still have Kerry (or Jerry) listed as carrying Jersey at the moment in my predicition.

[J. J.]

NJ is clearly now a swing state.  Kerry's lead, which was once double digits, have largely evaporated.

If Kerry were to abandon, or cut back, the Phila media market, it would be gone.

I'm at ground zero of this political campaign again.  :-)  (Rev. Jackson showed up a mile from my house on last election day.)

[nomorelies]

Maybe liberal like Bush coz of his spending hey modu

http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/

Look at all that debt destroyed by the Republican runner

[MODU]

JJ,

I'm still interested to see that, if Jersey is truly trending towards the middle on election day, what caused more people to vote for Bush this time?  Was it 9/11, Governor-gate, his performance over the last 4 years, or merely just the lack of support for Kerry?




Nomo,

Troll.

[nomorelies]

Was Clinton really that good as President

http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/

Did you vote for Clinton based on the amount of money he saved for Bush to blow up on things that were wasted.

Seriously modu are you voting for Bush because hes responsible with money

[J. J.]

Another poll with Jersey in play?  Still not holding my breath, but at this point, I wouldn't be surprised if Bush carries it narrowly.  

How many polls do you think will be released following the debates?  Might have to revisit Jersey in a month.

Still have Kerry (or Jerry) listed as carrying Jersey at the moment in my predicition.

If either candidate visits Phila, Allentown, or the 'burbs, they are effectively visiting southern NJ.  Likewise, if either candidate visits Camden, Trenton, or even Atlantic City, they are visiting south eastern PA.

They are also visiting DE, but I have not noted any movement.

It's a question of local media coverage.  Every local media outlet covers it.  And most voters watch this local media.

[J-Mann]

Someone, please: </nomorelies>

[nomorelies]

Someone, please: </nomorelies>

Mann : my demands are simple. Stick to your governmental beliefs and it will end. If you are conservaitve you cannot vote for Bush because he doesnt stand up for what you believe in. It will end very simple. I will end this when they dont vote Bush as he is not a conservative.

Proof that Bush is not a conservative
http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/

Fiscal conservatism is the stance that the government must "live within its means". Above all, fiscal conservatives oppose excessive government debt; this belief in balanced budgets tends to be coupled with a belief that government welfare programs should be narrowly tailored and that tax rates should be low, which implies relatively small government institutions.
This belief in small government combines with fiscal conservatism to produce a broader economic conservatism, which wishes to minimize government intervention in the economy. This amounts to support for laissez faire economics. This economic conservatism comes from two schools of thought: the classical conservative's pragmatism and the libertarian's notion of "rights." The classical conservative maintains that free markets work best, while the libertarian contends that free markets are the only ethical markets

[nomorelies]

I want to tlak about the issues. But i cant while Conservatives sit with a straight face and say im voting conservative when you know hes destroyed the deficit.

I want to abolish the deficit and taxation but it never gets out because of the hypocrisy of the voters voting for bush.

[MODU]

I want to tlak about the issues. But i cant while Conservatives sit with a straight face and say im voting conservative when you know hes destroyed the deficit.

I want to abolish the deficit and taxation but it never gets out because of the hypocrisy of the voters voting for bush.

Like I've said before, we've answered your questions numerous times in the past.  Unless you have something new which you would like to contribute to this site, please feel free to share it with us.  However, if all you are going to do is constantly spam each thread with your website and snide remarks, then please do us all a favor and go somewhere else.  Let those of us who are actually interested in discussing topics do so in peace.

Oh, and don't forget to take your medication, lying spamming troll.     How was your visit on O'Reilly?  

[AuH2O]

Kerry is in a world of pain in Ohio. NJ also, apparently, but if the election were today he would win it.

Regardless, it's not much a 'swing state' because NJ can't reasonably be expected to actually decide the outcome.

[MODU]

No, it won't decide the vote, but it would really hurt any chance Kerry has to win.  Right now, Kerry must win all of Gore's states plus pick up a medium-sized Bush state.  Right now, the only Bush states which Kerry might win is either New Hampshire or West Virginia.  However, he's in danger of losing Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, and New Mexico.  If he loses Jersey, that's 15 EVs he has to pick up somewhere else.  Needless to say, Kerry will be watching the Jersey numbers on Nov 2nd.

[nomorelies]

Modu : you have not answered my questions.  you do what Republicans also do spin it run and hide.

you slam kerry but if i slam bush you all cry outrage and run to dave and complain.

you started the sleeze campign against kerry and when we fight back you cry to dave. act your age. you want this ended  you agree to my terms and it will be done.

[J. J.]

JJ,

I'm still interested to see that, if Jersey is truly trending towards the middle on election day, what caused more people to vote for Bush this time?  Was it 9/11, Governor-gate, his performance over the last 4 years, or merely just the lack of support for Kerry?




Nomo,

Troll.

Well, first of all, NJ has a history of being R.  In "non-landslide" years, 1968, 1976, and 1988, it went R.  While you can say the same thing about CA, NJ has not had the population gain that CA has, though it has grown at about the same rate as the rest of the country. So there is a long term historical trend to look at this as a toss-up state.

Second, it lost a lot of people in 9-11 and a fair large potion of the D electorate could see the WTC burning.  Before the DNC, it was close, I believe less than 5 points.  There was a good bounce for Kerry, but that was eaten up by Bush's bounce.

Third, the McGreavey (sp?) Scandel doesn't help.  That this was a homosexual relationship will re-enforce the idea that D's are morally "loose" in the eyes of the social convervatives in both parties.  That the Gov. tried to get his alledged lover a position relating to homeland security re-enforces the idea that the D's are weak on security issues, trying to use this position for personal gain; this would be true if his affair was with a woman.

Fourth, the way the resignation is handled.  The Governor said, in effect, "I can no longer govern, so I'll keep governing so that the electorate won't have a chance to chose my successor."  That will also anger some sectors of the electorate, who might want to express their anger this year.

I don't, however, see the McGreavy factor as the factor, but it's going to move a few votes.  The thing is that something that causes a 0.5% swing could determine who wins NJ this year.  
It's basically that all of these factors have reached critical mass.

[ATFFL]

Someone, please: </nomorelies>

Mann : my demands are simple. Stick to your governmental beliefs and it will end. If you are conservaitve you cannot vote for Bush because he doesnt stand up for what you believe in. It will end very simple. I will end this when they dont vote Bush as he is not a conservative.

Proof that Bush is not a conservative
http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/

Fiscal conservatism is the stance that the government must "live within its means". Above all, fiscal conservatives oppose excessive government debt; this belief in balanced budgets tends to be coupled with a belief that government welfare programs should be narrowly tailored and that tax rates should be low, which implies relatively small government institutions.
This belief in small government combines with fiscal conservatism to produce a broader economic conservatism, which wishes to minimize government intervention in the economy. This amounts to support for laissez faire economics. This economic conservatism comes from two schools of thought: the classical conservative's pragmatism and the libertarian's notion of "rights." The classical conservative maintains that free markets work best, while the libertarian contends that free markets are the only ethical markets

Nomo, its called being a war time President.  He has had to establish a brand new cabinet level department and fund 2 wars.  WHile doing this he has returned economic growth, which began to collapse in the third quarter of 2000, to pre-recession levels.



Also, keep in mind that the best figures under Clinton all occured with a Republican congress.  Controlling spending requires a divided government and peace time.

[The Duke]

Someone, please: </nomorelies>

Mann : my demands are simple. Stick to your governmental beliefs and it will end. If you are conservaitve you cannot vote for Bush because he doesnt stand up for what you believe in. It will end very simple. I will end this when they dont vote Bush as he is not a conservative.

Proof that Bush is not a conservative
http://www.kowaldesign.com/budget/

Fiscal conservatism is the stance that the government must "live within its means". Above all, fiscal conservatives oppose excessive government debt; this belief in balanced budgets tends to be coupled with a belief that government welfare programs should be narrowly tailored and that tax rates should be low, which implies relatively small government institutions.
This belief in small government combines with fiscal conservatism to produce a broader economic conservatism, which wishes to minimize government intervention in the economy. This amounts to support for laissez faire economics. This economic conservatism comes from two schools of thought: the classical conservative's pragmatism and the libertarian's notion of "rights." The classical conservative maintains that free markets work best, while the libertarian contends that free markets are the only ethical markets

I just love when liberals tell me what I'm supposed to believe, don't you?

Screw you, hippie.

[MODU]

Modu : you have not answered my questions.  you do what Republicans also do spin it run and hide.

you slam kerry but if i slam bush you all cry outrage and run to dave and complain.

you started the sleeze campign against kerry and when we fight back you cry to dave. act your age. you want this ended  you agree to my terms and it will be done.

Take your medication and go back and read the old threads.  I've answered your same questions more than I should have.  If you have to keep asking them, then the problem is between your ears.  I've pointed out the flaws in both candidates.  If you can't compute that in your head then it's your own downfall, not ours.