minnesota?

[WalterMitty]

is anyone else somewhat surprised that the 'battleground' states of wi, mi, nm and nv were all stronger for obama than mn?

also, isnt a bit strange that so many minnesota counties 'trended' (the all important 'trend'!) republican?

now im curious as to how much pawlenty would have helped mccain.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I think we saw some signs that primary organization did matter.  But, yeah, Minnesota was one of Obama's less impressive Northern performances.  BRTD can probably do a reasonable analysis of why.

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

I've already written up on this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88499.0

It's actually rather simple: McCain did try for awhile for some reason while Obama mostly ignored it. Look at the Fargo media market where Obama was running ads.

It's also a lot more polarized than most states.

[WalterMitty]

I've already written up on this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88499.0

It's actually rather simple: McCain did try for awhile for some reason while Obama mostly ignored it. Look at the Fargo media market where Obama was running ads.

It's also a lot more polarized than most states.

how is it polarized?  race? religion? income?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Partisan-wise. Both parties have a particularly high floor. Franken's numbers are basically the Democratic floor, Mark Kennedy's are the Republican floor.

[Vasall des Midas]

I've already written up on this: http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88499.0

It's actually rather simple: McCain did try for awhile for some reason while Obama mostly ignored it. Look at the Fargo media market where Obama was running ads.

It's also a lot more polarized than most states.

how is it polarized?  race? religion? income?

Income and religion both play a role. Race obviously not so much.

[Tender Branson]

MN voting patterns relative to the national average. Make of it what you want:

Year   US      MN      Diff.

1960:   D+0.17      D+1.42      D+1.25
1964:   D+22.58      D+27.76      D+5.18
1968:   R+0.70      D+12.54      D+13.24
1972:   R+23.15      R+5.51      D+17.64
1976:   D+2.06      D+12.88      D+10.82
1980:   R+9.74      D+3.94      D+13.68
1984:   R+18.21      D+0.18      D+18.39
1988:   R+7.72      D+7.01      D+14.73
1992:   D+5.56      D+11.63      D+6.07
1996:   D+8.51      D+16.14      D+7.63
2000:   D+0.51      D+2.41      D+1.90
2004:   R+2.46      D+3.48      D+5.94
2008:   D+7.25      D+10.24      D+2.99

[WalterMitty]

the trend from 2004 to 08 is difficult to explain.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

The odd part is that there are some states that, by all accounts, should be much more polarized, which trended Obama.  Oregon is a great example -- I doubt anyone would have ventured D+16 without polls.

[Aizen]

Yeah, Minnesota was a little disappointing this election.

[Sibboleth]

Presidential voting patterns in Minnesota have always tended to reflect class patterns more than in most other states, which might be a factor, I guess.

[ottermax]

It's not like Minnesota didn't swing toward Obama, in fact only two counties swung toward McCain. I'm sure it helped a little to have the GOP convention in the state and probably more ads. I'm also thinking that many Minnesotans were tired of the Franken-Coleman race and I think that Minnesota had a rather high third party vote. And finally, some states have to trend Republican; it's inevitable. Perhaps Minnesota will trend stronger toward the Democrats next election.

[Gravis Marketing]

I think the density of McCain advertising must be the deciding factor.

Just to put it out there... does anyone think that the Palins had any cultural resonance here, as hoped?

[Wrecking Ball and Chain]

Just to put it out there... does anyone think that the Palins had any cultural resonance here, as hoped?

No. I sure as hell didn't see it. Nor do I see where Palin would appeal anyway, believe it or not people here don't vote thinking "OMG, this candidate's running mate is from another state that's cold and snowy! I'm voting for them for sure!" People vote on things that actually matter.

[Nym90]

Just to put it out there... does anyone think that the Palins had any cultural resonance here, as hoped?

No. I sure as hell didn't see it. Nor do I see where Palin would appeal anyway, believe it or not people here don't vote thinking "OMG, this candidate's running mate is from another state that's cold and snowy! I'm voting for them for sure!" People vote on things that actually matter.

Well I'd think the connection would be more the accent and small town values, but it's true that Minnesota small towns are a lot more liberal than Alaska small towns. And sounding like Frances McDormand in Fargo, while charming to many Minnesotans, is, as you say, not something they are going to vote on.

Al had a good point; wealthy voters in Minnesota did not swing to Obama as much as they did in most other states. It's one of the few states left in which the suburbs are still more Republican than the rural areas, on balance.

The convention might have had some impact, too. And the close Senate race might've motivated the GOP base to turn out in higher levels than in many other states.

[LanceMcSteel]

The iron grip of the blood red suburbs and exurbs around the Twin Cities appears to be part of the cause. Other Blue cities are starting to have the suburbs trend significantly democratic such as the Detroit and Philly Suburbs while the Twin Cities's suburbs are not trending Democratic at all.

[ilikeverin]

I'm actually pretty surprised about the lack of a suburban shift, too, based on caucus performance and such.  I guess it just goes to show that the primaries weren't the general election, yet again

[WalterMitty]

I guess it just goes to show that the primaries weren't the general election, yet again

mn had a caucus, which is obviously undemocratic.

[Jayhawker]

It's very interesting how small towns vary in different states...
I live in rural Indiana, in a town of about 1,200. We voted for McCain 87-9%.  Chuck Norris actually received 1% of the vote here. Being a Democrat is just about as bad as killing someone, and people who had Obama signs in their yard were likely to be egged. It just baffles me how Minnesota's, which isn't too far away from Indiana, rural areas are liberal.

[PASOK Leader Hashemite]

It just baffles me how Minnesota's, which isn't too far away from Indiana, rural areas are liberal.

Minnesota's rural areas are liberal?

lol

[Holmes]

It just baffles me how Minnesota's, which isn't too far away from Indiana, rural areas are liberal.

Minnesota's rural areas are liberal?

lol

In comparison to rural Indiana, I would say so.

[Nym90]

It's very interesting how small towns vary in different states...
I live in rural Indiana, in a town of about 1,200. We voted for McCain 87-9%.  Chuck Norris actually received 1% of the vote here. Being a Democrat is just about as bad as killing someone, and people who had Obama signs in their yard were likely to be egged. It just baffles me how Minnesota's, which isn't too far away from Indiana, rural areas are liberal.

Living in a strongly Democratic rural blue collar union area, it baffles me that rural areas could be conservative.

[Derek]

Yes Minnesota has been trending to the right since the 80's. Clinton's margins of victory wasn't much bigger than Dukakis's. Bush almost won that state both times. I'd call it a democratic battleground state and if not a toss up.

[Ebowed]

I'd call it a democratic battleground state and if not a toss up.

Obama won it by ten points and it has voted Republican for President once since 1956.  Don't get your hopes up.

[phk]

I'd call it a democratic battleground state and if not a toss up.

Obama won it by ten points and it has voted Republican for President once since 1956.  Don't get your hopes up.

1972?