German Election Prediction Contest

[Tender Branson]

Perhaps followed by: Stuttgart I (20+%)

Why not Freiburg?

Because of the 11% in 2005.

[minionofmidas]

Perhaps followed by: Stuttgart I (20+%)

Why not Freiburg?

Party co-chairman (and MEP) Cem Özdemir is running only as a direct candidate in Stuttgart I, not via the state list. His slightly quixotic campaign has attracted some interest.

EDIT: I think there's some things wrong here. Coming up...
Double EDIT: Only thing that's wrong is that Özdemir retired from the European Parliament in june, after serving one term. He is indeed not on the state list.

[Hash]

Prediction for best CDU constituency (list): Cloppenburg-Vechta

[Tender Branson]

Prediction for best CDU constituency (list): Cloppenburg-Vechta

Prediction for best CSU constituency (list): Rottal am Inn (Pope-district)

[Tender Branson]

Might refine this stuff in the evening, if additional polls come out:

I remember that we did one of these last time. Anyway.

1. Predict the %'s for Right (CDU, FDP) and Left (SPD, G, DL).

CDU/CSU: 32.5%
SPD: 26.1%
FDP: 14.4%
Left: 11.1%
Greens: 10.5%
Others: 5.4%

Turnout: 74.7%

Red-Red-Green: 47.7%
Black-Yellow: 46.9%

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1 - CDU/CSU
2 - SPD
3 - FDP
4 - Left
5 - Greens

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SPD wins Hamburg, Bremen, Berlin and Brandenburg (allthough the Left will be within 1 point).

The Left wins Sachsen-Anhalt and Thüringen.

CSU wins in Bavaria.

CDU wins everywhere else.

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CDU/CSU: Best = Bavaria, Worst = Berlin
SPD: Best = Bremen, Worst = Bavaria or Saxony (lean Saxony)
FDP: Best = BW or Hesse (lean BW), Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Left: Best = Sachsen-Anhalt, Worst = Bavaria
Greens: Best = Berlin, Worst = Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or or Sachsen-Anhalt (lean MV)

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No clue.

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No clue.

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I´m not that insane ... 300 constituencies with no polls. It would just be too embarrassing.

We could include predictions for the 2 state elections though which are also held tomorrow:

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 31% (-9)
SPD: 26% (-13)
FDP: 15% (+8 )
Greens: 13% (+7)
Left: 7% (+6)
SSW: 4% (nc)
Others: 4% (nc)

Brandenburg

SPD: 32% (nc)
Left: 27% (-1)
CDU: 21% (+2)
FDP: 7% (+4)
Greens: 5% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (-2)
Others: 4% (-4)

OK, wasn't really that bad after all. Mostly got the state elections right and the "best/worst state"-stuff and the overall result. Turnout was really low and hard to predict ...