Ireland 2009

[doktorb]

Jim Nicholson has been elected second. Now it's down to his surplus (originally from Jim Allister) to decide between the DUP and SDLP.

There are reports of some transfers going SDLP - if they pull this off it will be Lazarus with a quintuple bypass.

[doktorb]

Above quote from another forum

[Јas]

Northern Ireland
Seats: 3
Turnout: 43%
Total Valid Poll: 484,572
Quota: 121,144
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184	(Elected with a surplus of 5,040)
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	88,346
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	82,893
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	78,489
Jim Allister (TUV)	66,197
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	26,699	Eliminated
Stephen Agnew (Green)	15,764	Eliminated

	Count 2
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	94,814	(+16,325)
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	94,285	(+11,392)
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	91,260	(+2,914)
Jim Allister (TUV)	70,481	(+4,284)	Eliminated
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	-	(-26,699)
Stephen Agnew (Green)	-	(-15,764)
Non-Transferable	7,548

Both DUP and UUP will storm past the SDLP on Allister's transfers to take seats 2 and 3.

[Јas]

Update from East (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3 
Turnout: 56.8%
Total Valid Poll: 429,249     
Quota: 107,313 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6
Mairéad McGuinness (FG)	110,336	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313
Liam Aylward (FF)	74,666	74,866	75,124	76,295	77,044	99,236
Nessa Childers (Lab)	78,338	78,914	80,145	84,198	86,654	89,355
John Paul Phelan (FG)	61,851	63,590	64,169	67,972	69,608	70,846
Kathleen Funchion (SF)	26,567	26,647	27,132	29,305	43,085	44,422
Thomas Byrne (FF)	31,112	31,264	31,480	32,276	33,383
Tomás Sharkey (SF)	20,932	21,034	21,461	23,954
Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)	18,557	18,728	19,396
Paddy Garvey (Ind)	2,934	2,945
Jim Tallon (Ind)	2,412	2,425
Micheál Grealy (Ind)	1,514	1,523

What is very likely to be the final count is underway here - the distribution of Funchion's votes.
The Childers-Phelan gap should widen a bit.
At any rate, as expected, the numbers confirm it's an FG loss to Labour in East.

[Јas]

Update from South (Count Ongoing)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 59.2%     
Total Valid Poll: 498,127       
Quota: 124,532 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6
Brian Crowley (FF)	118,258	119,625	122,404	132,410	124,532	124,532
Seán Kelly (FG)	92,579	94,430	96,153	97,482	98,394	134,712
Alan Kelly (Lab)	64,152	66,121	69,683	70,309	70,991	78,651
Toiréasa Ferris (SF)	64,671	65,861	67,304	68,296	69,295	73,389
Kathy Sinnott (Ind)	58,485	62,057	64,295	65,518	66,920	71,349
Colm Burke (FG)	53,721	54,617	57,190	57,884	58,654
Ned O'Keefe (FF)	16,596	16,896	17,124
Dan Boyle (Green)	15,499	16,250
Alexander Stafford (Ind)	11,692
Maurice Sexton (Ind)	2,474

        
Interesting count now, Kelly's 10,000 surplus between Alan Kelly, Ferris and Sinnott. Looks like Labour are now favoured to take this seat, but still too close to call.

[Јas]

No developments from North-West, Mr Ganley's requested re-check has consumed all day so far.

[Јas]

City and County Councils
Still on 862 of 883 seats declared

Having taken a look at the remaining seats, it looks like it'll end up something like as follows:

Fine Gael	339	(+46 seats)
Fianna Fáil	219	(-83)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	55	(+1)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	135	(+20)

[nemesis2004]

Looking at Sean Kelly's surplus, it's probably likely that less will transfer to a Cork candidate and so I'd be inclined to think that Ferris will remain ahead of Sinnott on the next count. Should she do so, it's much more likely that Sinnott's full eliminated vote will put Ferris over the top.

[nemesis2004]

So much for that!!! Ferris eliminated and now has 74,480 to transfer. Kelly ahead of Sinnott by 8,753 heading into the Shinner's disribution. Pat Magner on RTE Radio has a point about SF voters thinking of  Sinnott as too right wing for their tastes and labour more likely to pick up preferences than other parties do. Still, Sinnott may pick up on basis of the anti-Lisbon vote. Hard to know but will be interesting to see.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Sinnott is an insane. So I'm glad she lost.

[Kevinstat]

City and County Councils
Still on 862 of 883 seats declared

Having taken a look at the remaining seats, it looks like it'll end up something like as follows:

Fine Gael	339	(+46 seats)
Fianna Fáil	219	(-83)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	55	(+1)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	135	(+20)

Pretty close.

City and County Councils
All 883 seats declared (perhaps with recounts not completed in Belturbet in Cavan and Portlaoise in Laois, but the fact that those LEAs weren't mentioned in the update on all 883 seats having been filled may indicate that those recounts are over)

Fine Gael	340	(+47 seats)
Fianna Fáil	218	(-84)
Labour	132	(+31)
Sinn Féin	54	(no change)
Greens	3	(-15)
Ind/Other	136	(+21)

Source: RTÉ

[Kevinstat]

European Elections in the Republic of Ireland:


Candidates elected by constituency (listed by constituency in order of election, or vote in the count in which the candidate was elected if two candidates were declared elected as a result of the same count):

Dublin: Gay Mitchell* (FG), Proinsias De Rossa* (Lab), Joe Higgins (Socialist) (Socialist and new EU nations gain from FF and SF)
East: Mairead McGuinness* (FG), Liam Aylward* (FF), Nessa Childers (Lab) (Lab gain from FG)
North West: only outstanding constituency in the Republic of Ireland, with no candidates elected yet; see below)
South: Brian Cowley* (FF), Seán Kelly (FG), Allan Kelly (Lab) (Lab gain from Ind (Kathy Sinnott))
Republic of Ireland: 3 FG (-1 from 2004 in constituencies with the count complete), 3 Lab (+2) 2 FF (-1), 1 Socialist (+1), 3 seats outstanding (Ireland lost one seat in the European Parliament)

* denotes incumbent

North West, through Count 5, with no candidates elected (and thus no surplus transfers):


Jim Higgins* (FG) 113,810 votes (24.26% of non-exhausted ballots)
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) 112,622 (24.01%)
Marian Harkin* (Ind) 112,210 (23.92%)
Declan Ganley (Libertas) 75,705 (16.14%)
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF) 54,737 (11.67%)

Exclude MacLochlainn (SF)

The next (6th) count will probably be the last one, with Higgins (FG), Gallagher (FF) and Harkin (Ind) being elected (that will definitely be the end result).  Ganley (Libertas) has conceded and has said he will "bow out of public life."

[Јas]

East (Count Complete)
Seats: 3 
Turnout: 56.8%
Total Valid Poll: 429,249     
Quota: 107,313 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6	Count 7
Mairéad McGuinness (FG)	110,336	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313	107,313
Liam Aylward (FF)	74,666	74,866	75,124	76,295	77,044	99,236	103,605
Nessa Childers (Lab)	78,338	78,914	80,145	84,198	86,654	89,355	102,220
John Paul Phelan (FG)	61,851	63,590	64,169	67,972	69,608	70,846	76,960
Kathleen Funchion (SF)	26,567	26,647	27,132	29,305	43,085	44,422
Thomas Byrne (FF)	31,112	31,264	31,480	32,276	33,383
Tomás Sharkey (SF)	20,932	21,034	21,461	23,954
Raymond O'Malley (Libertas)	18,557	18,728	19,396
Paddy Garvey (Ind)	2,934	2,945
Jim Tallon (Ind)	2,412	2,425
Micheál Grealy (Ind)	1,514	1,523

LAB gain from FG
In the end, Phelan more than 25,000 votes off holding the seat.


South (Count Complete)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 59.2%     
Total Valid Poll: 498,127       
Quota: 124,532 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6	Count 7	Count 8
Brian Crowley (FF)	118,258	119,625	122,404	132,410	124,532	124,532	124,532	124,532
Seán Kelly (FG)	92,579	94,430	96,153	97,482	98,394	134,712	124,532	124,532
Alan Kelly (Lab)	64,152	66,121	69,683	70,309	70,991	78,651	83,921	105,597
Kathy Sinnott (Ind)	58,485	62,057	64,295	65,518	66,920	71,349	75,168	95,134
Toiréasa Ferris (SF)	64,671	65,861	67,304	68,296	69,295	73,389	74,480
Colm Burke (FG)	53,721	54,617	57,190	57,884	58,654
Ned O'Keefe (FF)	16,596	16,896	17,124
Dan Boyle (Green)	15,499	16,250
Alexander Stafford (Ind)	11,692
Maurice Sexton (Ind)	2,474

                     
LAB gain from IND.
Sinnott in the end more than 10,000 votes shy.

Sinnott is an insane. So I'm glad she lost.

^^^

Looking at Sean Kelly's surplus, it's probably likely that less will transfer to a Cork candidate

Ah, but the transfered Seán Kelly surplus was entirely from Colm Burke's (Cork-based) votes - so (Cork-based) Alan Kelly was always likely to do respectably from that.

[Јas]

North-West (Count Complete)
Seats: 3
Turnout: 63.4%     
Total Valid Poll: 495,257     
Quota: 123,815 
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3	Count 4	Count 5	Count 6
Marian Harkin (Ind)	84,813	89,938	99,561	103,942	112,210	121,672
Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF)	82,643	84,680	85,842	87,714	112,622	120,930
Jim Higgins (FG)	80,093	82,457	86,597	111,133	113,810	120,185
Declan Ganley (Libertas)	67,638	69,925	72,475	73,994	75,705	84,277
Pádraig MacLochlainn (SF)	45,515	47,413	50,225	52,384	54,737
Paschal Mooney (FF)	42,985	44,719	45,687	47,702
Joe O'Reilly (FG)	37,564	38,854	42,350
Susan O'Keefe (Lab)	28,708	31,176
Michael McNamara (Ind)	12,744
Fiachra Ó Luain (Ind)	6,510
John Francis Higgins (Ind)	3,030
Noel McCullagh (Ind)	1,940
Thomas King (Ind)	1,124

       
No Party Change

As reported yesterday, Mr Ganley held up the count claiming he had eye-witnesses to suggest that thousands of his votes had been misallocated to Gallagher and/or Harkin. Turns out there had been a misallocation, following a re-check, Ganley lost 3,000 votes which actually belonged to Independent Fiachra Ó Luain.

In the end, Ganley was 36,000 votes away from a seat and has declared his political career to be at an end.


Northern Ireland
Seats: 3
Turnout: 43%
Total Valid Poll: 484,572
Quota: 121,144
Incumbents underlined.

	Count 1	Count 2	Count 3
Bairbre deBrún (SF)	126,184	126,184	126,184
Jim Nicholson (UUP)	82,893	94,285	132,227
Dianne Dodds (DUP)	88,346	91,260	115,722
Alban Maginness (SDLP)	78,489	94,814	97,428
Jim Allister (TUV)	66,197	70,481
Ian Parsley (Alliance)	26,699
Stephen Agnew (Green)	15,764

DUP gain from TUV
SDLP more than 18,000 off Dodds (though taking the remaining surpluses into account were probably more than 24,000 away from election).

Allister made clear his intent to fight on with the TUV noting in his post-count speech, "there's a lot of Assembly P45s in 70,000 votes". He may be right.

[Јas]

Taking a look at polling accuracy...

European Elections

	5 June	5 June	31 May	29 May	2004
	Election	Exit	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	29.1	30	34	29	27.8
Fianna Fáil	24.1	23	20	25	29.5
Labour	13.9	16	14	16	10.6
Sinn Féin	11.2	12	9	10	11.1
Green	1.9	2	4	2	4.3
Libertas	5.5	4	4	3	-
Ind/Other	14.3	13	15	15	16.8

This includes the exit poll conducted for RTÉ by Lansdowne, the final RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post, and the final TNSmrbi poll for The Irish Times.

The TNS poll was within 1% of FG, FF, the Greens and Independents.
Furthest out on Libertas (-2.5%), Labour (+2.1%) and SF (-1.2%).
Mean error: 1.09%

The Lansdowne exit poll was within 1% of FG, SF and the Greens.
Furthest out on Labour (+2.1%), Libertas (-1.5%), Indies (-1.3%) and FF (-1.1%).
Mean error: 1.11%

RedC were within 1% of Labour and Independents.
Furthest out on FG (+4.9%), FF (-4.1%), SF (-2.2%), the Greens (-2.1%) and Libertas (-1.5%)
Outside the margin of error for the two biggest parties
Mean error: 2.23%

[Јas]

And the Locals...

Local Elections

	5 June	5 June	31 May	29 May	2004
	Election	Exit	RedC	TNSmrbi	Election
Fine Gael	32.2	34	32	32	28
Fianna Fáil	25.4	24	20	18	32
Labour	14.7	17	17	20	11
Sinn Féin	7.4	9	10	8	8
Green	2.3	3	4	3	4
Ind/Other	18	14	17	19	17

TNS were within 1% of FG, SF, Greens and Others.
And were furthest out on FF (-7.4%) and Lab (+5.3%) - way outside the MoE
Mean error: 2.53%

RedC were within 1% of FG and Indies.
Furthest from FF (-5.4%), SF (-2.6%), Lab (+2.3%) and Greens (+1.7%)
Mean error: 2.2%

The Lansdowne exit pollwas within 1% of the Greens.
Furthest out from Indies (-4%), Lab (+2.3%), FG (+1.8%), SF (+1.6%) and FF (-1.4%).
Mean error: 1.97%

Generally a much worse performance polling the locals. All 3 polls registered results outside the margin of error.

[Hash]

Philippe de Villiers is now, AFAIK, the only Libertas MEP. He can effectively take over this short-lived joke.

[Јas]

With the election of Pat The Cope Gallagher (FF) in North-West, that means he has to vacate his Dáil seat for Donegal South-West. I think that the vacancy takes effect immediately on declaration, but I should get a definitive answer on that following the vote of no confidence against the Government which comes later today.

Anyway, the new composition of the Dáil:

Fianna Fáil	74	(-1)
Fine Gael	52
Labour	20
Greens	6
Sinn Féin	4
Progressive Democrats	2
Independents	6
Ceann Comhairle (Speaker)	1
Vacant	1	(+1: Donegal SW)

Government (FF, Greens, PDs, Jackie Healy-Rae, Michael Lowry, Jim McDaid) = 85
Opposition (FG, Lab, SF, Finian McGrath, Maureen O'Sullivan, Joe Behan) = 79
Government Majority of 6

[Јas]

Following the Local Elections, we now have only 3 Councils with single party majorities - none of which are FF controlled. With these elections, FG have become the plurality party across most of the country and garnered majorities on Cavan, Limerick and Mayo County Councils. 10 Councils have shifted from having FF as the largest party to FG.

FF held their plurality status on 4 Councils; Labour the same, though strenghtening their positions on each. SF gained plurality status in Monaghan because FG lost a seat to an Independent.

The list below shows which Councils have which largest parties.
(# of seats of party/# seats on Council)

Fine Gael
Majority
Cavan (13/25) was tied with FF
Limerick County (15/28) was tied with FF
Mayo (17/31) was FG plurality

Plurality
Carlow (10/21) was FF plurality
Clare (12/32) was FF plurality
Cork City (8/31) was FF plurality
Cork County (22/48) Hold
Dún Laoighaire-Rathdown (11/28) Hold
Galway County (13/30) was tied with FF
Kerry (10/27) was FF plurality
Kildare (9/25) was FF plurality
Kilkenny (12/26) Hold
Laois (12/25) was FF plurality
Leitrim (10/22) was FF plurality
Limerick City (8/17) Hold
Longford (10/21) lost FG majority
Louth (8/26) was FF plurality
Meath (11/29) was FF plurality
Roscommon (10/26) Hold
Sligo (12/25) was tied with FF
South Tipperary (12/26) was FF plurality
Waterford City (4/15) Hold
Waterford County (11/23) Hold
Wexford (10/21) Hold
Wicklow (9/24) Hold

Fianna Fáil
Plurality
Donegal (10/29) was FF majority
Offaly (9/21) Hold
North Tipperary (6/21) Hold
Westmeath (9/23) Hold

Labour
Plurality
Dublin City (19/52) Hold
Fingal (9/24) Hold
Galway City (5/15) Hold
South Dublin (9/26) Hold

Sinn Féin
Plurality
Monaghan (7/20) was tied with FG

[Јas]

First post-election defection!

Sinn Féin's Christy Burke, their by-election candidate in Dublin Central, who was elected to Dublin City Council has become an Independent. He's apparantly unhappy at having had to run a 'watered down' campaign.

(Thus, the new make-up of Dublin City Council becomes: 19-12-6-6-9)

- RTÉ

[Harry Hayfield]

I tried to record the Euro coverage on RTE but it didn't quite work out somehow (probably because my grandparents wanted to watch something else at the same time), so can I ask if Donegal South West will be covered by RTE and if so, how are Irish by-elections conducted and does the thread title mean a 2009 Irish general election?

[Јas]

so can I ask if Donegal South West will be covered by RTE and if so, how are Irish by-elections conducted

I wouldn't expect there to be any coverage of the by-election outside standard news coverage, unless it is scheduled on the same day as some other significant vote.

I would suggest for example, that it is quite possible that the by-election could be timed to coincide with the re-run of the Lisbon referendum this October - something that will very probably garner significant coverage.

As to the by-election itself, much like in Britain it will come about around a month after a writ for the by-election is moved and approved by the Dáil. Traditionally, the party which lost the seat reserves the right to time when it wants to hold the election. FF won't be rushing to hold this by-election (they stalled for 11 months on the Dublin Sotuh by-election) as although Donegal SW is a very FF friendly area, there's really just about nowhere they can expect to win a by-election these days.

The vote itself will be conducted per standard elections, except with only one seat so is basically the IRV system which applies.

and does the thread title mean a 2009 Irish general election?

No. The thread was made to cover all elections in Ireland this year. The only guaranteed significant public vote left to be held in 2009 is the re-run of the Lisbon referendum which will likley be this October.

That said, despite that the current Dáil could last until 2012, the possibility of a 2009 General Election cannot be ruled out.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Congrats Jas, you live in the most Shinner county in the country.

The places Labour have as pluralities are really interesting, why can't they do it during general election time?

However if one thing this election proved apart from Cowen & Co's already well known unpopularity is that other known fact - Labour can't become the second biggest party in the country and their results from any where that isn't an urban (by Irish standards) area show this. Assuming they run candidates, they didn't in Roscommon or (I think) in Cavan and hardly at all in places like Longford, Mayo, Leitrim... Though they did win 2 Donegal County Council seats, which surprised me.

[Јas]

Congrats Jas, you live in the most Shinner county in the country.

Nah, I'm from and vote in the most Shinner county of the country!
I live in George Lee-land now!

The places Labour have as pluralities are really interesting, why can't they do it during general election time?

However if one thing this election proved apart from Cowen & Co's already well known unpopularity is that other known fact - Labour can't become the second biggest party in the country and their results from any where that isn't an urban (by Irish standards) area show this. Assuming they run candidates, they didn't in Roscommon or (I think) in Cavan and hardly at all in places like Longford, Mayo, Leitrim...

Labour ran Liam Hogan in the Cavan LEA. Came 8th in the 7 seater, 23 votes off 7th (with 10 undistributed FG transfers remaining at the end). (Des Cullen of Labour was elected to Cavan Town Council.)

You're right though that Labour lose potential simply by not fielding candidates. For most of Connacht-Ulster, Labour candidates are a very rare breed.
Though Labour didn't run in Roscommon, believe it or not, People Befroe Profit did - coming 8th and last in the Roscommon LEA.

Though they did win 2 Donegal County Council seats, which surprised me.

Frank McBrearty Jr, of Morris Tribunal note, was one. He had name recognition and a cause, independent of the party.

The other, Martin Farren is formerly of FG and took the 7th and final seat in Inishowen, just about making it.

Seamus Rodgers, the usual Labour Dáil candidate in Donegal SW, did ok in Glenties as well. And at least the party ran candidates in all of the LEAs in Donegal. Can't win if you're not in and all that.

Donegal Results

[minionofmidas]

Congrats Jas, you live in the most Shinner county in the country.

Nah, I'm from and vote in the most Shinner county of the country!

Tyrone?