Ireland 2009

[Јas]

Decided to try and map some maps on the Local Elections from May. The local electoral areas unfortunately don't match up with Dáil constituencies, so that leads to necessary fudging. Nonetheless...

Fianna Fáil

[Јas]

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[Ghyl Tarvoke]

That FG map is ridiculous...

Any chance of one being done for the Far Left (PBP + SP + Other Trots)?

[Јas]

Any chance of one being done for the Far Left (PBP + SP + Other Trots)?

Yep, will do. Should get them up in the next day or two.

[mileslunn]

When is the next national election?  I know when I was Ireland this past June, almost everyone I talked to seemed to be really mad at the current government especially considering how hard the government got hit.  Does anyone think Fianna Fail could win again or are they toast?  And what about the smaller parties, could this be good news for them?

[Јas]

When is the next national election?  I know when I was Ireland this past June, almost everyone I talked to seemed to be really mad at the current government especially considering how hard the government got hit.  Does anyone think Fianna Fail could win again or are they toast?  And what about the smaller parties, could this be good news for them?

Under current electoral law, a general election must be held by July 2012. However, the Government's majority has been steadily eroding for some time now and the conventional wisdom seems to be that a general election is more likely than not at some stage within the next 18 months.

If the polling we've been seeing is at all accurate, Fianna Fáil will be in for a drubbing. There's really no telling how bad it could get at this stage. It looks very possible to be their worst ever electoral perfromance.

The main beneficiaries should be the two larger opposition parties, Fine Gael and Labour. As for the smaller parties, Sinn Féin could make a few gains; the Greens are on the verge of electoral wipe-out; and the various far-left (Socialists, People Before Profit) could well win a few seats. I suspect at this stage Independents will also have a reasonably good election.

[Vasall des Midas]

What is it with SF and Tralee, anyways?

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

What is it with SF and Tralee, anyways?

That's very traditional - One of the strong holds of the irregulars during the Civil War. People there have long memories. However why it is still so pronounced in Tralee and not in say, Limerick (which had a fully operational soviet in 1919) is another, difficult to understand, matter.

[Јas]

What is it with SF and Tralee, anyways?

It seems to be largely a personal vote for Martin Ferris. It's only since Ferris became a SF candidate (after his release in 1994 - coinciding with SF developing a peace process electoral dividend), that they have had any success in Kerry. Up until that point SF's support in the Kerry North area had been marginal. You were more likely to find SF candidates on the ballot papers in local and general elections (outside of the border and Dublin areas, Kerry and Cork would have long had relatively strong pockets of strong support for militant republicanism) - though none of these candidates met with any significant degree of popular support.

SF are very worried that Ferris will retire at the next election and that his natural successor for the seat, his daughter Toiréasa (of the recent European election), is both not particularly keen to run for the seat and is not believed to view the current leadership very positively.

[Јas]

Any chance of one being done for the Far Left (PBP + SP + Other Trots)?

The above map contains the combined totals for the Socialist Party, People Before Profit and the Workers' Party. The below table gives the details by party from strongest to weakest constituency for the combined far left. However, the figures should be taken with a nice big bucket load of salt as the lcoal electoral areas (particularly on the northside of Dublin) don't necessarily fit nicely into the Dáil constituencies.

	Socialist	PBP	Workers'
Dublin W	22.9%
Dublin SC		15.7%	0.9%
Dún Laoighaire		14.2%
Dublin N	13%
Cork NC	6.2%		3%
Dublin SW	5.7%	3.5%
Waterford		0.6%	5.9%
Dublin MW			4.1%
Dublin NW			4.1%
Dublin NE	2.7%
Dublin SE		2.4%
Dublin C		0.7%	1%
Louth			0.5%
Roscommon-Leitrim S		0.3%

There are various known Independent leftists who ran obviously, some of whom did rather well, see for example Séamus Healy and his posse in Clonmel.

For the sake of completion (not of the far-left obviously, but of parties generally), the Christian Solidarity Party polled 0.4% of the vote in Dublin SC, 0.2% in Laois-Offaly and 0.1% in Galway East.

[Vasall des Midas]

What is it with SF and Tralee, anyways?

It seems to be largely a personal vote for Martin Ferris. It's only since Ferris became a SF candidate (after his release in 1994 - coinciding with SF developing a peace process electoral dividend), that they have had any success in Kerry. Up until that point SF's support in the Kerry North area had been marginal. You were more likely to find SF candidates on the ballot papers in local and general elections (outside of the border and Dublin areas, Kerry and Cork would have long had relatively strong pockets of strong support for militant republicanism) - though none of these candidates met with any significant degree of popular support.

Probably a case of a dormant political tradition springing back to life in just the right circumstances, then?
I'm a little surprised that one man's personal vote would extend to local elections, though, but I guess that's because it's a different country.

[Јas]

Probably a case of a dormant political tradition springing back to life in just the right circumstances, then?

There's certainly an element of that - but I don't think it alone really can explain it.

I'm a little surprised that one man's personal vote would extend to local elections, though, but I guess that's because it's a different country.

Yeah - personality politics is what it's about. In Tralee alone, for example, most of those elected are running on their family name/connections as their party label. The 2 FF candidates elected there have had a political rivalry going back generations, with various members of both families elected to the council and/or Dáil, often at the other's expense. The two Labour candidates elected are Arthur Spring, who is at least the third generation of his family running on the Labour ticket in Kerry N, and Terry O'Brien who was, IIRC, Dick Spring's (Arthur's father, former TD, Labour leader and Tánaiste) election agent for some years. And, of course, Ms Ferris we've already discussed.

[Vasall des Midas]

I am familiar with the name Dick Spring, thank you. (Although I wasn't aware he was from there too - saves me the question of "Labour seem to be doing well there too, actually").

[Sibboleth]

I am familiar with the name Dick Spring, thank you.

But only because you have a dirty sense of humour.

[Vasall des Midas]

I am familiar with the name Dick Spring, thank you.

But only because you have a dirty sense of humour.

No.

[Harry Hayfield]

Could this backfire on the Irish PM? During the address to the UN of the President of Iran, the cameras panned across the people watching and showed a person in the Irish delegation's area and no one in the UK's area. Could the opposition say this shows that Ireland supports Iran?

[Hashemite]

Could this backfire on the Irish PM? During the address to the UN of the President of Iran, the cameras panned across the people watching and showed a person in the Irish delegation's area and no one in the UK's area. Could the opposition say this shows that Ireland supports Iran?

People don't vote on those issues.

[Јas]

Could this backfire on the Irish PM? During the address to the UN of the President of Iran, the cameras panned across the people watching and showed a person in the Irish delegation's area and no one in the UK's area. Could the opposition say this shows that Ireland supports Iran?

The news coverage here noted the speech and that there was another walk out by the Americans, British and other European and western diplomats - but actually there was no specific reference to whether Irish diplomats walked out or not. IIRC, Irish diplomats did join the walk-out at the UN in Geneva last time - but judging by the remarks I've seen, I'd suggest that Ahmadinejad's speech this time was probably less inflamatory than before, though was obviously still completely OTT.

At any rate, a decision either way on a walk-out was/is unlikely to really mean anything of significance politically here. Any suggestion that Ireland supports or endorses Ahmadinejad would be ridiculous. Plus, Hashemite is right, the voters by-and-large don't care a great deal onee way or the other about such walk-outs.

At any rate, the opposition are not short of sticks to hit the Government with - there are more than enough domestic troubles and concerns (Lisbon II, NAMA, unemployment...) to debate. Finally, the current Government being less popular than swine flu, I'm not sure that if Ahmadinejad came and personally stumped for Fianna Fáil that they could actually fall any further in the polls.

Indeed, I note that RedC produced a poll for the Farmers' Journal here on who farmers (a key support group for FF) currently favour. Note the change since pre-economic apocalypse Ireland.

	Sep 09	May 08
Fine Gael	62	40
Fianna Fáil	25	46
Labour	3	2
Sinn Féin	3	3
Green	1	2
Others	6	7

[Јas]

One week out...the latest Lisbon numbers from TNSmrbi/The Irish Times: 48-33-19 (+2, +4, -6 from last month).

It was only at this stage in Lisbon I when polling indicated that the No side had taken the lead (30-35-35).

Breakdown by gender, class and party support
Men: 51-34-15
Women: 45-33-22

AB: 62-18-20
DE: 33-48-19
F: 68-24-8

Fianna Fáil: 74-16-10
Fine Gael: 57-31-22
Labour: 46-34-20
Green: 52-35-13
Sinn Féin: 14-66-20
Indies: 46-38-16

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

The "NO" campaign has been even more hysterical and laughably moronic than last time. Thankfully, the same guff wouldn't work twice. (For the record, I voted "NO" the last time around - obviously changing my vote this time.)

[Јas]

The "NO" campaign has been even more hysterical and laughably moronic than last time.

I'd submit that both sides have been more hysterical and moronic this time.

I love some of the spoof posters that have been doing the rounds though

Thankfully, the same guff wouldn't work twice. (For the record, I voted "NO" the last time around - obviously changing my vote this time.)

Though the numbers look more favourable for the Yes side this time - I'm not prepared to call it yet. It forced to guess, I'd suggest that Yes will win narrowly on a lower turnout than before. (Readers might now be well advised to place bets on a blow-out result with record turnout.)

[Sibboleth]

Those posters are wonderful