Ireland 2009

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Highly unlikely that FF take either by-election seat; unless Brennan's son runs in Dublin South and even then...

As things stand it is likely that however can rile so-called public anger the most will win either seat.

And the lisbon treaty will fail again. And it will be hilarious.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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Labour already have one seat here (Costello) - would they really go for another? In a GE, the chances of retaining both are very slim even in good circumstances for Labour and then there are vote splitting and transfer problems.

Unless someone associated with Gregory runs (who?), I'd go with FG gain here for now.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Not to be honest I'm so sick and bored with RTE Radio 1 and the "OMG RECESSION OMG OMG OMG" line of reporting that I haven't been much up to stratch with the news as of late, only to see that Brian Cowen is failing even more epically than before, the more it goes on the worse it gets...

The By-elections will be interesting. At this point I doubt the Govt will last until 2012, if there are a few more deaths/resiginations/resigning the whip....

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Why aren't the Greens going to collapse the goverment? (In saying that, elections are three years away, but which this opportunity will be wasted, however given the order of things right now I can't imagine anyone wanting to run this country. The meeja alone are bad enough, see the thread I posted in Individual politics.)

Either way as I said on the other thread on the other board, THIRD PLACE! THIRD PLACE!

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Btw even if these results WERE to be repeated come election time (not going to happen, the FF machine is still a mighty one...), FF would still finish second though embarrasingly. Simply Labour don't have the tradition or organization to finish second, also there would be trouble with transfers.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Okay I'm bored and have decided to guess (Stress on this) the seat distrubtion if that were to happen in an election. However this is truly unpredictable, for example I suspect there might be alot of Labour-FF transfers, much more than usual, as I suspect with others is that what is happening is the erosion of FFs working class vote and then there are the Greens transfers.... And of course it is impossible to predict independents, so I sort of ignored them unless there is an incumbent.

Carlow-Kilkenny: 2FF 2FG 1LAB
Cavan-Monaghan: 1FF 3FG 1SF (Though if SF run a second candidate, they might beat FG for the final seat)
Clare: 2FF 2FG (even if that Poll still difficult to see how any result can very different without Inds)
Cork East: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Cork North Central: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Cork North West: 1FF 2FG
Cork South Central: 1FF 3FG 1LAB
Cork South West: 1FF 2FG
Donegal North East: 1FF 1FG 1SF
Donegal South West: 1FF 1FG 1SF
Dublin Central (still has to be by-election here): 1FF 1FG 2LAB (The Dublin ones are probably the least predictable... alot would depend on where Bertie's personal vote would go and there is always SF)
Dublin Mid West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF (very tricky, this is the sort of suburban area which should see massive swings against FF)
Dublin North: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC
Dublin North Central: 1FF 1FG 1IND (If Finian McGrath doesn't run, then either FG/LAB gain (might be so anyway), I'm hoping Richard Bruton might become leader of FG by then, so if so FG gain)
Dublin North East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Dublin North West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Dublin South (By election soon): 1FF 2FG 2LAB
Dublin South Central: 1FF 1FG 2LAB 1SF
Dublin South East: 0FF 2FG 1LAB 1GP
Dublin South West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
Dublin West: 1FF 1FG 1LAB 1SOC
Dun Laoghaire: 1FF 1FG 2LAB
Galway East: 1FF 3FG
Galway West: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (a bit ambitious this one...)
Kerry North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1SF
Kerry South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Kildare North: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Kildare South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Laois-Offaly: 2FF 3FG (lol)
Limerick: 1FF 2FG
Limerick City: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Longford-Westmeath: 1FF 2FG 1LAB
Louth: 1FF 2FG 1LAB 1SF
Mayo: 2FF 3FG (could 1-4 if Enda still leader)
Meath East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Meath West: 1FF 2FG
Roscommon-Sleitrim: 1FF 2FG
Sligo-Nleitrim: 1FF 2FG
Tipperary North: 0FF 1FG 1LAB 1IND
Tipperary South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB
Waterford: 1FF 1FG 2LAB
Wexford: 1FF 2FG 2LAB (maybe could be 1-3-1)
Wicklow: 1FF 2FG 2LAB

Which Leaves... (placeholder)

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Jas, Thanks for not punishing my laziness and counting up my tally.

Anyway I will just add that I don't think that the Greens will do as well as you predict, especially considering the location of their seats - Dublin North, Dublin SE and maybe Dublin South seem to be the only ones which could be possible holds. Possible. Though they might pick up some ex-FF vote from other places. Also in large parts of the country (say Clare or Galway East) it is still difficult for the Labour Party to find a non-joke candidate, though in saying that they will probably some more counciller incumbents after this years locals than before. Also don't underestimate the extent to which large rural conservative constituencies vote for either FF or FG and no-one else (though you are right in your 1992 comparsion, however remember Personality politics is what matters here). Also yes are probably right about Kerry South, I forgot about the Ceann Comhairle. It is epic fail than the CC sits in a 3 seat constituencies, a 2 seat election is rather lame (especially considering that the CC is a member of one of the two major parties).

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Odd Demographics on this Poll I took from Politics.ie (not sure how accurate, but worth posting anyway, especially given their counter-intuitiveness):

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Lol@FF in Dublin. But those Dublin numbers for the three parties put together are far too low, what gives?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Hilarious.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Prediction Time:

Dublin South: Easy (and I will be voting, yay!): George Lee in a cantor. Only question whether he will be elected on the first count or not; Shay Brennan will get second on the family name. Alex White will be third; and I will probably be one of those helping him; even though I increasingly dislike the Labour party.

Dublin Central: Much tougher call, possibly a Gregory-Independent Hold? Fianna Fail might even win on transfers... but I'll go with O'Sullivan on Bacik's (and SFs) Transfers. Donaghue to finish second... where will he get the transfers?

Europe:
Dublin: 1FG 1LAB 1SF
North West: 1FF 1FG 1IND (Lol@Libertas)
South: 1FF 1FG 1LAB... but where will Sinnott transfer to is the big question for the third seat, It might be FG so if the second candidate can lean himself ahead of Sinnott by the time she is eliminated (she won't win this time, I don't rate her transfer potential) then possibly a 2nd seat for Fine Gael?
East: 1FF 1FG 1LAB

I should note that I have hardly being much attention to these and so is mostly guess work.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

And there is still three years to go till the next general election....

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I usually say Tuh-ree-zah. But might just be me.

Not hot and also a Shinner.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the Dublin South by-election one of the (obscure) independent candidates listed put down his career as Taxi Driver/Horse Breeder. Which I must say is a totally brilliant combo. He got my second preference (he'll need it) just for that alone. My First went to Alex White; not that it matters really.

I put the "Omg He's the Son of the Other Guy" and ex-Anglo Irish Bank employee eighth and last.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For the Dublin South by-election one of the (obscure) independent candidates listed put down his career as Taxi Driver/Horse Breeder. Which I must say is a totally brilliant combo.

I presume that's Frank O'Gorman.

He's got an interesting manifesto per his website.

He was also on Vincent Browne the other week, where it was pretty clear his ambition was actually to be elected in one of the 2 local elections he's simultaneously running in.

I've rarely been paying this any attention at all, but massive FF.

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

Thankfully Maria Corrigan stopped being our local counciller as to become an OMG SENATOR after 2007.

Already mentioned who I voted for in the Euros in the European Election thread.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

He isn't my local council area though (I'm in Glencullen not Rathfarnham - actually technically that's South Dublin Country not DL/R). I know nothing about our local government other than more FF/FG councillers = bad (for property/rezoning reasons which is and always has been the biggest local issue *begins anti-suburban/property developers thankgodfortherecession rant*). I voted #1 for the Green Party candidate for that reason, but right now I wouldn't vote for the Greens at any higher level. Labour got #2 and #3 with the picks between #2 and #3 completely random. The Greens are expected to be in the hunt in the end so *shrugs*.

The creation and adoption of local development plans and so planning matters are by far and away the most significant responsibility of local councillors, so you seem to be on the money here.

I had a rather sorry looking set of options for the locals.

Looks Tempting... Does the Labour Party even exist in Monaghan?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Rejoice! And LOLZ@ Maurice Ahern.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

In my local area Glencullen Labour actually outpoled FG by .1%. But due to awful vote management/strong personal vote they will probably end up with only one seat, compared to two with FG and one FF.

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Overall for DL/R it's FG 34.1% LAB 26.4% FF 16.7% OTH 14.3% GP 5.9% SF 2.7%. So far 5 elected; 2 FG 2 LAB 1 IND. A Candidate for "People Before Profit" (ie. the Socialist Workers Party) is likely to be elected in Ballybrack - oh the joys! Though that's somewhat surprising to me given that that is the most working class (or rather least middle class) part of DL/R. Two of the Electoral Divisions still to report mind.

The Hard-Left doing very well in North Dublin (In Fingal and the Inner City regions) it must be said.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Sinnott is an insane. So I'm glad she lost.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Congrats Jas, you live in the most Shinner county in the country.

The places Labour have as pluralities are really interesting, why can't they do it during general election time?

However if one thing this election proved apart from Cowen & Co's already well known unpopularity is that other known fact - Labour can't become the second biggest party in the country and their results from any where that isn't an urban (by Irish standards) area show this. Assuming they run candidates, they didn't in Roscommon or (I think) in Cavan and hardly at all in places like Longford, Mayo, Leitrim... Though they did win 2 Donegal County Council seats, which surprised me.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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And that makes two of us...

You don't happen to live beside Ballaly LUAS stop do you? (I ask mostly because I really dislike some of the developments there and you said you live in Dundrum so...)

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Yeah I noticed that Roscommon PBP candidate in The Irish Times - WTH aptly describes my impression.

Anyway you miss my point, it's not that Labour not running candidates is the problem look at the candidates they did run in those areas - it is hardly impressive it is. Rather my snipe was at the idea that Labour could plausibly finish second in an election; national figures may show one thing but it means nothing as Labour have practically no organization in the Midlands (except Westmeath) and Connacht other than Galway City and Sligo Town. For Labour to even come close to FF if they (FF) got 25% of 1st Prefs they would need to challenge and take some seats in places like Roscommon-S.Leitrim, Cavan-Monaghan, Mayo, Laois-Offaly and similiar constituencies. But there is no 'grassroots' and what left-wing vote there is such areas tend to go to Sinn Fein, which makes me wonder whether that is a left-wing vote at all.

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Okay but those are 'name' candidates for the most part. Though it does seem that Labour do have organization in parts of Donegal but it is far from taking a seat there (though the upcoming by-election will be interesting; but SF have a greater chance than Labour). I guess my general points is that that these election results aren't as bad for FF as they seem.

Jas, I think I have asked this before but will ask again, who exactly votes for Sinn Fein in Monaghan? Any group in particular or is it widespread?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

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You don't live very far away from me then... scary thought. Dundrum is a ghastly horrible place.

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True. But it would still probably power again in 2017.

Thanks of the stuff on SF in Monaghan. Interesting.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Green Party has voted to endorse the Lisbon Treaty.

Last time out, the party narrowly failed to get the necessary ²/₃ majority at their special delegate conference and so didn't actively campaign either way.

This evening, (and following a small but significant number of party defections in recent months) the party confirmed (after a number of recounts) that today's conference voted 214-107, precisely ²/₃ in favour and so the party will be actively campaigning in favour of Lisbon.

It's the first European treaty that I can remember that the Greens will be supporting.

Someone needs to go searching in Ranelagh and Ballsbridge.. as a missing spine needs to be returned to its owners.

Oh Well. What I expected really. Any polls, I haven't been following Oirish news at all here in the Great White North.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

That FG map is ridiculous...

Any chance of one being done for the Far Left (PBP + SP + Other Trots)?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What is it with SF and Tralee, anyways?

That's very traditional - One of the strong holds of the irregulars during the Civil War. People there have long memories. However why it is still so pronounced in Tralee and not in say, Limerick (which had a fully operational soviet in 1919) is another, difficult to understand, matter.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The "NO" campaign has been even more hysterical and laughably moronic than last time. Thankfully, the same guff wouldn't work twice. (For the record, I voted "NO" the last time around - obviously changing my vote this time.)