2024. All it would take is our generation coming into the dominant voting bloc, and that will happen within twenty years.
I agree with Don on this. 2024 may be a bit early, but not too early. The age gap on homosexuality is enormous--and not surprising. The youngest voters today grew up essentially being familiar with homosexuality. Often with some vicious common stereotypes thrown in, but generally speaking portrayed neutrally. Whereas the oldest generation grew up when homosexuality was still illegal and considered a mental illness.
Does that make a difference; of course, it makes an enormous difference. Support for gay marriage, a good barometer, is around 65% among those 18-29, but below 30% among those 65+. By, say, 2029, the vast majority of those 65+ will be deceased, while another twenty years of new voters with support for gay marriage equal or greater to that of the 18-25 group will enter the voting pool.
The traditional view is that people get more conservative as they get older. This is a hopeless generalization and usually supported, not by tracking individual generations, but by looking at a snapshot and observing that older voters are more conservative. The abortion issue is a good counter to this. The least supportive of abortion group is the 30-44 age group. Those also happen to be the ones who came of age during Reagan's presidency or immediately prior or thereafter. The most supportive group varies, but is most often the 45-64 age group--who came of age during the rise of the feminist movement and the handing down of Roe v Wade.
Generations' social views are largely shaped by their environment in their pre-voting and early voting years, not by rabid liberalism in youth and radical conservatism in senescence, although, given the rate at which society changes, they may appear radically conservative by the time they reach age 65. Abortion is a good barometer for these sorts of things because overall views on the issue have remained very steady for decades; overall views on homosexuality have not.
Good points you made there.
