Obama's 2012 victory: Bigger or Smaller than Clinton 96?

[Nym90]

I don't know this.  Nobody does.

It is simply my view that, since Obama's win in '08 was very substantial, given the extremely poor conditions for Republicans, that some of the traditionally Republican Presidential states will drift back to the fold come '12.

The same thing could well have been said about 1996 (or 1984, or 1972, or....). And indeed, a few traditionally GOP states that spurned Bush did come back into the Republican column in 1996 (Georgia, Montana, Colorado), though that didn't stop Clinton's victory margin from growing overall.

[Nym90]

The 1994 or even the 2002 versions of Romney would be excellent general election candidates, but would never get past a GOP primary. Conversely, the 2008 Romney could well win the primary, but barring Carter or Bush like approval numbers for Obama, is unelectable in the general.