I don't know this. Nobody does.
It is simply my view that, since Obama's win in '08 was very substantial, given the extremely poor conditions for Republicans, that some of the traditionally Republican Presidential states will drift back to the fold come '12.
The same thing could well have been said about 1996 (or 1984, or 1972, or....). And indeed, a few traditionally GOP states that spurned Bush did come back into the Republican column in 1996 (Georgia, Montana, Colorado), though that didn't stop Clinton's victory margin from growing overall.
Then again, Dole lost Arizona and Florida from 92.
The expectations are so high for Obama, that I think its going to be pretty hard for him to meet or exceed them. While he'll probably win, this question will be answered by the improvement or decline of the GOP and Obama's meeting of expectations.
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