Reagan/Bush vs. O'Neill/Young(1984)

[Historico]

Ok here is the POD...A Prolonged 1982 Recession which is caused perhaps as Reagan gives into those economists who say that a deficit is the root of all evil in government financing. He cuts a number of programs and doesn't launch new spending. At the same time, maybe he doesn't cut taxes as much. This could then cause the recovery from the early 80s recession to happen much more slowly. Maybe the numbers turn around in late '83 or early '84, but they don't have much of an impact on peoples' daily lives. By the time November 1984 rolls around, the numbers are looking better but (similar to Bush in '92), perception is otherwise. You could even see the Democrats turning Reagan's famous quote of 1980 around on him: Are your lives better than they were 4 years ago? And with the gipper's approval rating stil floating around 30 to 40 %, he decides to run for reelection?

On the Democratic side, The party looking to rebound from the dispair of Carter's adminstration nominate Reagan's harshest critic in Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil, as the last of the frayed New Deal coalation, who inturn picks former Ambassador to the UN Andrew Young to appeal to youth and minority groups. So how does this darker 1984 turn out? and does the US recieve their fifth President within a decade?

[bhouston79]

Yes, approval ratings mean everything when it comes to whether a President gets re-elected.  So if Reagan had have had an approval rating of 40% or less, he would have have been vulnerable.  Here's my prediction based upon your scenario.

Electoral College
O'Neill/Young  272
Reagan/Bush  266

Popular Vote
O'Neill/Young 50.6%
Reagan/Bush 48.7%
Others             0.7%

[Historico]

It would probably really close in Ten, and Georgia, but they might be able to carry those Southern States if they turnout the Black Vote enough. I just wanted to see someone tackle this idea, that Reagan really wasn't impossible to beat in the '84 election and If the economy pulled a '92 and really started to come around in early 84, Reagan very well could have lost in a Bush like manner.