Alabama

[BeccaM]

A black vs spinster race in Alabama would be fun

[bgwah]

I dunno, I could see Davis narrowly winning against someone like Moore...

[Tender Branson]

A black vs spinster race in Alabama would be fun

Maybe 45% is the best I can imagine for Davis.

He would need about 35% of Whites to win. Obama got 10% - half what Kerry got - despite a 5-point national swing among Whites.

It would be really stunning if he'd win.

[Holmes]

Are the primiaries in Alabama open or closed? If they closed, I wonder if the Dixies vote in them...

[Bacon King]

Is Darryl W. Perry running?

[BeccaM]

Davis is different from Obama. He's well known and generally respected in the state, so the "can we trust this Chicago black man named B. Hussein O." isn't as much of an issue.

It'd still be an uphill battle, but he has a chance depending on who his opponent is.

[I left.]

Is Darryl W. Perry running?

maybe he'll get 50 votes this time around?

[BushArizona]

Davis will win. Unlike Obama.. I will support davis during the whole campaign season against Roy Moore.. and will predict his win, regardless of what ""polling" says.

[Lunar]

I'm intrigued by this.  Artur Davis is completely aware of what he's doing and the challenges involved.  He knows he's quite young in this career and giving up a plum job in the House for what is at best a tossup race.

Artur is a smart Harvard guy, I think there's a legitimate reason somewhere that he can win this but I can't really understand what that is.

[Sibboleth]

I see no reason to assume that he "must" know what he's doing just because he went to a posh uni.

[Lunar]

I see no reason to assume that he "must" know what he's doing just because he went to a posh uni.

That wasn't really critical to my theory.  More important factors include his age, the seat he's giving up, the obviousness of what he "must" know, and my perceived intelligence of him outside of his scholarly history

[Lunar]

In 2000, 40% of Alabama voters opposed ending the constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages

In 2004, 50.1 percent of voters opposed a 2004 measure to remove a constitutional provision mandating segregated public schools for "white and colored children"

[Landslide Lyndon]

In 2000, 40% of Alabama voters opposed ending the constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages

In 2004, 50.1 percent of voters opposed a 2004 measure to remove a constitutional provision mandating segregated public schools for "white and colored children"

Sounds like the Real America to me.
Sarah Palin would be proud.

[Senator Ben]

Didn't Davis say he would have an announcement for us in February?

[Progressive Realist]

Alabama is definitely the most solidly Republican Southern state.

I could see Mississippi going Dem before Alabama.

[Rob]

I could see Mississippi going Dem before Alabama.

Alabama has a larger population of "populist"-leaning white voters who might, theoretically, at some point in the future, be more inclined to support a Democratic presidential candidate. Alabama also has a larger population of socially "moderate" (not "moderate" in the normal sense of the term, but not proudly racist) suburban whites who might, theoretically, etc.

[So the Heroes Fall]

I could see Mississippi going Dem before Alabama.

Alabama has a larger population of "populist"-leaning white voters who might, theoretically, at some point in the future, be more inclined to support a Democratic presidential candidate. Alabama also has a larger population of socially "moderate" (not "moderate" in the normal sense of the term, but not proudly racist) suburban whites who might, theoretically, etc.

Not in the South. Georgia is full of those "moderate" types, and they're the strongest Republican voters in the state.

[Progressive Realist]

I could see Mississippi going Dem before Alabama.

Alabama has a larger population of "populist"-leaning white voters who might, theoretically, at some point in the future, be more inclined to support a Democratic presidential candidate. Alabama also has a larger population of socially "moderate" (not "moderate" in the normal sense of the term, but not proudly racist) suburban whites who might, theoretically, etc.

Maybe, but Mississippi has a proportionally larger black population.

[Rob]

Not in the South. Georgia is full of those "moderate" types, and they're the strongest Republican voters in the state.

That's why I said "theoretically, at some point in the future..."

[The Ex-Factor]

In 2000, 40% of Alabama voters opposed ending the constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages

In 2004, 50.1 percent of voters opposed a 2004 measure to remove a constitutional provision mandating segregated public schools for "white and colored children"

Wait, what? There was a constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages in Alabama all the way up to 2000?

I'd be surprised if Davis managed to win, although it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Considering the state, he'd be the best governor a Democrat could hope for.

[Lunar]

In 2000, 40% of Alabama voters opposed ending the constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages

In 2004, 50.1 percent of voters opposed a 2004 measure to remove a constitutional provision mandating segregated public schools for "white and colored children"

Wait, what? There was a constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages in Alabama all the way up to 2000?

I'd be surprised if Davis managed to win, although it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Considering the state, he'd be the best governor a Democrat could hope for.

indeed http://www.cnn.com/US/9903/12/interracial.marriage/

[Lunar]

http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2009/03/06/ron-sparks-plan-announcement-for-lg-race/

The white Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks is going to challenge Davis in what will likely be a pretty basic racial primary.

[RBH]

Uh. No.

Sparks is running for Lt. Gov

Folsom may run against Davis for Governor, or for the Senate.

[Lunar]

oops, I don't know why I said that.

braindead

[bgwah]

Folsom is going for re-election as Lt. Governor instead of running for Governor.

Is there any chance Roy Moore will run again?