Alabama

[Lunar]

So that eliminates Davis's top two contenders.  That should set himself up to be very strongly favored to be the Democratic nominee.  So Sparks will challenge Folsom?

[Lunar]

http://times-journal.com/story.lasso?ewcd=72cbeff9728a2af8&-session=FPTJ:42F943EB09cad2769EVXW3C9F801

nevermind, Sparks has decided to be the white guy in this race.

“I will not run against Jim Folsom,” said Sparks, who would not elaborate on his statement.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Folsom out = GOP hold

[blagohair.com]

Why is Davis doing this?  Does he really think he can win?  I would keep my job in Washington if I was in his position.

[Tender Branson]

Ex-Judge Moore Mulls Another Monumental Bid in Alabama

Republican Roy Moore, a conservative activist known for his former role as Alabama's "Ten Commandments" judge, says he is very "inclined" to join the 2010 race for the state's open governor's seat.

Moore, who discussed his possible candidacy in an interview with the Associated Press, now heads Foundation for Moral Law, a conservative group with a central focus of religion in public life. He would be seeking to succeed a political rival, term-limited Republican Bob Riley, to whom he badly lost the 2006 Republican primary for governor.

Moore had been an elected chief justice of the state Supreme Court. But he was ousted from the post by a state court panel in 2003, after he ignored a federal court ruling ordering the removal of a granite momunent to the biblical Ten Commandments that he had installed in the state Supreme Court building two years earlier.

Despite a groundswell of support among conservative activists, Moore only managed about 33 percent of the vote in losing the 2006 primary to Riley. The incumbent went on to easily win the general election that November to claim his second term.

Moore refused to take money from political action committees (PACs) during that primary, making it difficult to even contest the incumbent's fundraising ability.

Moore told the Associated Press last week, while discussing his possible 2010 candidacy, that he would take PAC money this go-around unless "it's something that I can't at all agree with."

Tim James, a businessman and son of former Alabama Gov. Fob James, is the party's only official candidate so far, according to the state Republican Party. Others rumored to be interested include state Rep. Robert Bentley, Alabama Secretary of State Beth Chapman, state Republican Party Chairman Mike Hubbard, and state Treasurer Kay Ivey.

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis and state Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks are in the contest for the Democratic nomination, with state Sen. Roger Bedford Jr. considering the race.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/04/ex-judge-moore-mulls-another-monumental-bid-in-alabama.html

[Lunar]

I saw that, thanks for posting.

Artur's chances just went up, since this time Moore will be the loudest candidate in a multiple candidate primary.

as did my chances of feeling even sorrier for the people of this state

[bgwah]

Davis vs. Moore would be interesting. I would certainly gain some respect for Alabama if they elected Davis in such a scenario.

[??????????]

Is Darryl W. Perry running?

^^^

http://www.dwp2016.org/

[Lunar]

I have no idea who the hell he is, but his website is awesome X max X maxawesome

[© Tweed the Younger]

I have no idea who the hell he is, but his website is awesome X max X maxawesome

he used to post here

[Sibboleth]

I have no idea who the hell he is, but his website is awesome X max X maxawesome

he used to post here

Brilliant suggestive understatement. Though bist good at that, it seems.

[Tender Branson]

New Artur Davis internal:

DEM Primary:

Artur Davis: 54%
Sue Bell Cobb: 25%

Artur Davis: 56%
Ron Sparks: 26%

General Election:

Artur Davis (D): 43%
Bradley Byrne (R): 38%

The statewide poll, commissioned by Davis and conducted by Montgomery-based Anzalone-Liszt Research, included 600 Democratic primary voters who were contacted from May 5-9.

http://blog.al.com/live/2009/05/artur_davis_leads_democratic_r.html

[I'm Not a Witch]

Not to be condescending but does anyone actually think Alabama will elect a black man to the Governor's office? :S

[Lunar]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/is-artur-davis-the-next-barack.html



New polling from the gubernatorial campaign of Alabama Rep. Artur Davis suggests he starts in strong position to be elected as the state's first African American governor.

Davis is over 50 percent in the survey, which was conducted by Anzalone-Liszt Research, against the two other Democrats in the race: Alabama Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (54 percent-25 percent) and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (56 percent-26 percent).

Davis pollster John Anzalone said that the poll's Democratic primary sample was 46 percent African-American, a "conservative" estimate based on recent statewide races where blacks comprised between 52 percent and 58 percent of the Democratic primary vote.

In a general election, Davis leads attorney Bradley Byrne (R) 43 percent to 38 percent, according to the polling.

Davis's strong showing appears to be creditable at least in part to the surprisingly strong standing of President Obama in the state. Nearly six in ten Alabama voters like Obama personally (57 percent favorability) and believe he is doing a good job (58 percent positive) -- numbers all the more striking when one considers that Obama won only 39 percent in Alabama last November.

While Davis downplays comparisons between himself and Obama, it's hard to ignore the obvious similarities -- young, black, Harvard educated and running largely post-racial candidacies focused only tangentially on the color of their skin.

One of the unanswered questions from the 2008 election was whether Obama's history-making victory as the country's first black president was an isolated case attributable to his unique political skills and positioning or whether it would have a residual effect on the way in which voters saw black candidates in future races.

As we wrote recently:

"The question that each of these candidacies will seek to answer is whether having a black president will influence how voters think about their in-state politicians. Put another way: Does having Obama in the White House make it easier for Georgia or Alabama voters to see the possibility that their own governor could be black?"
The early poll numbers out of Alabama suggest that seeing a black president on television every day may be having some effect -- conscious or unconscious -- on the perceptions of voters even in the Republican-friendly deep South.

Two caveats: It's still very early -- the primary in Alabama isn't for another year -- and the polling cited above was paid for by Davis's campaign.

That said, should Davis make history as the first African-American governor of the Yellowhammer State, he is likely to owe a major debt to Obama's trailblazing candidacy last fall.

[Tender Branson]

Not to be condescending but does anyone actually think Alabama will elect a black man to the Governor's office? :S

No.

I think Davis' support in the polls is overblown.

Obama regularly got 20% of Whites in SUSA polls prior to the election, but ended up with 10% on Election Day.

To win, Davis would need at least 30% of Whites, 3-times more than what Obama got.

[Ronnie]

58 percent favorability rating for Obama seems absurd.

Crappy internal

[Lunar]

Now I feel a lot better about this race.

Five way primary on the GOP side, Roy Moore could potential win with 30% of the vote, giving the Democrats a great shot.

http://moore2010.com/main

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2009/06/roy_moore_makes_it_official_he.html



Of course, Alabama has my condolences should Moore win the whole shebang

[Meeker]

There is actually a relatively good chance that Roy Moore could be running a state.

What an absolutely horrifying thought.

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Alabama next week !

[Lunar]

Sort of ironic that Artur and Moore both need each other to have a shot at winning, although that's logically what happens with two candidates such as these

If I were advising Davis against Roy I would suggest constant Biblical quotations and thanking Jesus.  Match him at least at least at an 8:10 for religiosity.  Don't get drawn into religious policy debates like abortion...

[Rowan]

PPP will poll Alabama next week !

Bah! Beat me to it, I was just about to post it.

Any guess on Obama's Approval?

I'll guess 39%.

[pogo stick]

My God ,Roy Moore is weird. Way to religious LOL.

Still as long as he won't force Jews to convert ,and as long as he's pro-Israel he's got my support.
Nevermind I'll support someone else.

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Alabama next week !

Bah! Beat me to it, I was just about to post it.

Any guess on Obama's Approval?

I'll guess 39%.

Lower 40s I guess, with Davis trailing by about 5 points ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll by PPP:

Artur Davis (D) vs. Bradley Byrne (R): 35-39
Artur Davis (D) vs. Tim James (R): 37-35
Artur Davis (D) vs. Roy Moore (R): 41-38
Artur Davis (D) vs. Kay Ivey (R): 39-31

Ron Sparks (D) vs. Bradley Byrne (R): 27-41
Ron Sparks (D) vs. Tim James (R): 32-32
Ron Sparks (D) vs. Roy Moore (R): 36-38
Ron Sparks (D) vs. Kay Ivey (R): 33-29

PPP surveyed 667 Alabama voters from June 2nd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_610.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Davis gets just 21% of Whites against Byrne. He needs about 30% to win.

Considering the fact that you always have to subtract about 10% from the Black guy AL Whites favor in pre-election polls, I can call this race for Byrne right now, barring any scandal.