Alabama

[Lunar]

Kind of old news, but nothing about it:

http://www.clantonadvertiser.com/news/2008/dec/17/rep-davis-all-announces-alabama-governor/

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http://www.al.com/newsflash/regional/index.ssf?/base/news-40/1231433381324350.xml&storylist=alabamanews

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http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/article/20090109/NEWS02/901090319

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http://www.madisoncountyrecord.com/articles/2009/01/02/opinion/oped2.txt

Davis also publicly rejected the Congressional Black Caucus's petition on Burris

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what about this dude?

Jim Folsom, Jr.

He'd obviously be the best candidate

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http://www.al.com/news/birminghamnews/statebriefs.ssf?/base/news/1230455750100620.xml&coll=2

[Lunar]

If this were Georgia or the Carolinas then Davis might be in a little better shape but Alabama was still uber Republican in the presidential race this year and its going to take a pretty conservative Democrat to win there.

Davis is pretty conservative and is really trying to separate himself from the Congressional Black Caucus as much as humanly possible.  As I said, he condemned the Black Caucus's rallying behind Burris and its attempt to play the race card.  Davis isn't stupid, he's just Quixotic.

But I haven't heard of a single local political observer who mentions his candidacy as anything but a longshot.

Luckily his opponent will be a 60 something year old single woman.

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oh dear god Please don't do?
http://www.al.com/newsflash/regional/index.ssf?/base/news-41/1232739844274420.xml&storylist=alabamanews

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I don't know how I feel about this.  While I wold find it hilariously cool for such a person to be, say, the GOP nominee for president, I'm not sure about Alabama where he could actually win against Artur Davis.

Meh, I guess I support it.  Davis is an ambitious young black politician that I'd like to see make it a little further and it doesn't really affect me of Alabama has a nut job governor ... it wouldn't be the first time... *cough* George Wallace *cough* *cough*

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I'm intrigued by this.  Artur Davis is completely aware of what he's doing and the challenges involved.  He knows he's quite young in this career and giving up a plum job in the House for what is at best a tossup race.

Artur is a smart Harvard guy, I think there's a legitimate reason somewhere that he can win this but I can't really understand what that is.

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I see no reason to assume that he "must" know what he's doing just because he went to a posh uni.

That wasn't really critical to my theory.  More important factors include his age, the seat he's giving up, the obviousness of what he "must" know, and my perceived intelligence of him outside of his scholarly history

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In 2000, 40% of Alabama voters opposed ending the constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages

In 2004, 50.1 percent of voters opposed a 2004 measure to remove a constitutional provision mandating segregated public schools for "white and colored children"

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In 2000, 40% of Alabama voters opposed ending the constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages

In 2004, 50.1 percent of voters opposed a 2004 measure to remove a constitutional provision mandating segregated public schools for "white and colored children"

Wait, what? There was a constitutional ban on mixed-race marriages in Alabama all the way up to 2000?

I'd be surprised if Davis managed to win, although it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility. Considering the state, he'd be the best governor a Democrat could hope for.

indeed http://www.cnn.com/US/9903/12/interracial.marriage/

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http://www.politicalparlor.net/wp/2009/03/06/ron-sparks-plan-announcement-for-lg-race/

The white Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks is going to challenge Davis in what will likely be a pretty basic racial primary.

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oops, I don't know why I said that.

braindead

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So that eliminates Davis's top two contenders.  That should set himself up to be very strongly favored to be the Democratic nominee.  So Sparks will challenge Folsom?

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http://times-journal.com/story.lasso?ewcd=72cbeff9728a2af8&-session=FPTJ:42F943EB09cad2769EVXW3C9F801

nevermind, Sparks has decided to be the white guy in this race.

“I will not run against Jim Folsom,” said Sparks, who would not elaborate on his statement.

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I saw that, thanks for posting.

Artur's chances just went up, since this time Moore will be the loudest candidate in a multiple candidate primary.

as did my chances of feeling even sorrier for the people of this state

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I have no idea who the hell he is, but his website is awesome X max X maxawesome

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http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/is-artur-davis-the-next-barack.html



New polling from the gubernatorial campaign of Alabama Rep. Artur Davis suggests he starts in strong position to be elected as the state's first African American governor.

Davis is over 50 percent in the survey, which was conducted by Anzalone-Liszt Research, against the two other Democrats in the race: Alabama Supreme Court Justice Sue Bell Cobb (54 percent-25 percent) and state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (56 percent-26 percent).

Davis pollster John Anzalone said that the poll's Democratic primary sample was 46 percent African-American, a "conservative" estimate based on recent statewide races where blacks comprised between 52 percent and 58 percent of the Democratic primary vote.

In a general election, Davis leads attorney Bradley Byrne (R) 43 percent to 38 percent, according to the polling.

Davis's strong showing appears to be creditable at least in part to the surprisingly strong standing of President Obama in the state. Nearly six in ten Alabama voters like Obama personally (57 percent favorability) and believe he is doing a good job (58 percent positive) -- numbers all the more striking when one considers that Obama won only 39 percent in Alabama last November.

While Davis downplays comparisons between himself and Obama, it's hard to ignore the obvious similarities -- young, black, Harvard educated and running largely post-racial candidacies focused only tangentially on the color of their skin.

One of the unanswered questions from the 2008 election was whether Obama's history-making victory as the country's first black president was an isolated case attributable to his unique political skills and positioning or whether it would have a residual effect on the way in which voters saw black candidates in future races.

As we wrote recently:

"The question that each of these candidacies will seek to answer is whether having a black president will influence how voters think about their in-state politicians. Put another way: Does having Obama in the White House make it easier for Georgia or Alabama voters to see the possibility that their own governor could be black?"
The early poll numbers out of Alabama suggest that seeing a black president on television every day may be having some effect -- conscious or unconscious -- on the perceptions of voters even in the Republican-friendly deep South.

Two caveats: It's still very early -- the primary in Alabama isn't for another year -- and the polling cited above was paid for by Davis's campaign.

That said, should Davis make history as the first African-American governor of the Yellowhammer State, he is likely to owe a major debt to Obama's trailblazing candidacy last fall.

[Lunar]

Now I feel a lot better about this race.

Five way primary on the GOP side, Roy Moore could potential win with 30% of the vote, giving the Democrats a great shot.

http://moore2010.com/main

http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2009/06/roy_moore_makes_it_official_he.html



Of course, Alabama has my condolences should Moore win the whole shebang

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Sort of ironic that Artur and Moore both need each other to have a shot at winning, although that's logically what happens with two candidates such as these

If I were advising Davis against Roy I would suggest constant Biblical quotations and thanking Jesus.  Match him at least at least at an 8:10 for religiosity.  Don't get drawn into religious policy debates like abortion...

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And how do you know he will win the GOP primary?

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And how do you know he will win the GOP primary?

You spoke authoritatively that you can call this entire race for Byrne, I don't see how you're breaking down the primary for me at all here...

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Ok.

I just wonder if Roy Moore couldn't manage to win in this five-way primary with <35-40% of the vote.  It's hard to find a clean path for Davis to win that doesn't run through Moore, and even then, it's a tososup.

[Lunar]

Anyone think Sparks is gonna win this one?

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Anyone think Sparks is gonna win this one?

Sparks is in a pretty good situation, money-wise, at least as far as I can tell.

Bentley loaned his own campaign $750,000 to win the runoff and right now only has $200,000 cash on hand. Sparks, in contrast, ended his primary on June 1st with $110,000 in the bank.

I'm not sure if there's much contrast here. 

Especially as Bentley could write himself another check.