Alabama

[Tender Branson]

First polls out:

Artur Davis (D) vs. Bradley Byrne (R): 42-38
Artur Davis (D) vs. Kay Ivey (R): 42-42
Artur Davis (D) vs. Jack Hawkins (R): 39-44

"His (Davis') popularity ratings are 2-1 favorable among whites."

Poll of 600 by Anzalone-Liszt Research Inc. for Artur Davis.

http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/article/20090128/NEWS02/901280362

[Tender Branson]

A black vs spinster race in Alabama would be fun

Maybe 45% is the best I can imagine for Davis.

He would need about 35% of Whites to win. Obama got 10% - half what Kerry got - despite a 5-point national swing among Whites.

It would be really stunning if he'd win.

[Tender Branson]

Ex-Judge Moore Mulls Another Monumental Bid in Alabama

Republican Roy Moore, a conservative activist known for his former role as Alabama's "Ten Commandments" judge, says he is very "inclined" to join the 2010 race for the state's open governor's seat.

Moore, who discussed his possible candidacy in an interview with the Associated Press, now heads Foundation for Moral Law, a conservative group with a central focus of religion in public life. He would be seeking to succeed a political rival, term-limited Republican Bob Riley, to whom he badly lost the 2006 Republican primary for governor.

Moore had been an elected chief justice of the state Supreme Court. But he was ousted from the post by a state court panel in 2003, after he ignored a federal court ruling ordering the removal of a granite momunent to the biblical Ten Commandments that he had installed in the state Supreme Court building two years earlier.

Despite a groundswell of support among conservative activists, Moore only managed about 33 percent of the vote in losing the 2006 primary to Riley. The incumbent went on to easily win the general election that November to claim his second term.

Moore refused to take money from political action committees (PACs) during that primary, making it difficult to even contest the incumbent's fundraising ability.

Moore told the Associated Press last week, while discussing his possible 2010 candidacy, that he would take PAC money this go-around unless "it's something that I can't at all agree with."

Tim James, a businessman and son of former Alabama Gov. Fob James, is the party's only official candidate so far, according to the state Republican Party. Others rumored to be interested include state Rep. Robert Bentley, Alabama Secretary of State Beth Chapman, state Republican Party Chairman Mike Hubbard, and state Treasurer Kay Ivey.

U.S. Rep. Artur Davis and state Commissioner of Agriculture Ron Sparks are in the contest for the Democratic nomination, with state Sen. Roger Bedford Jr. considering the race.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/04/ex-judge-moore-mulls-another-monumental-bid-in-alabama.html

[Tender Branson]

New Artur Davis internal:

DEM Primary:

Artur Davis: 54%
Sue Bell Cobb: 25%

Artur Davis: 56%
Ron Sparks: 26%

General Election:

Artur Davis (D): 43%
Bradley Byrne (R): 38%

The statewide poll, commissioned by Davis and conducted by Montgomery-based Anzalone-Liszt Research, included 600 Democratic primary voters who were contacted from May 5-9.

http://blog.al.com/live/2009/05/artur_davis_leads_democratic_r.html

[Tender Branson]

Not to be condescending but does anyone actually think Alabama will elect a black man to the Governor's office? :S

No.

I think Davis' support in the polls is overblown.

Obama regularly got 20% of Whites in SUSA polls prior to the election, but ended up with 10% on Election Day.

To win, Davis would need at least 30% of Whites, 3-times more than what Obama got.

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Alabama next week !

[Tender Branson]

PPP will poll Alabama next week !

Bah! Beat me to it, I was just about to post it.

Any guess on Obama's Approval?

I'll guess 39%.

Lower 40s I guess, with Davis trailing by about 5 points ...

[Tender Branson]

New poll by PPP:

Artur Davis (D) vs. Bradley Byrne (R): 35-39
Artur Davis (D) vs. Tim James (R): 37-35
Artur Davis (D) vs. Roy Moore (R): 41-38
Artur Davis (D) vs. Kay Ivey (R): 39-31

Ron Sparks (D) vs. Bradley Byrne (R): 27-41
Ron Sparks (D) vs. Tim James (R): 32-32
Ron Sparks (D) vs. Roy Moore (R): 36-38
Ron Sparks (D) vs. Kay Ivey (R): 33-29

PPP surveyed 667 Alabama voters from June 2nd to 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AL_610.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Davis gets just 21% of Whites against Byrne. He needs about 30% to win.

Considering the fact that you always have to subtract about 10% from the Black guy AL Whites favor in pre-election polls, I can call this race for Byrne right now, barring any scandal.

[Tender Branson]

I'll try to break this down:

In 5 Alabama tracking polls before the election, Obama got 19-21% among Whites in the 3 SurveyUSA polls and 2-times 19% on Rasmussen. According to the Alabama Exit Poll, he only got 10% of Whites on Election Day.

In 2004, John Kerry got 22%, 24% and 26% of Whites in 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls before the Election. He ended up with 19% of Whites.

So we have to assume that a generic Democrat in Alabama overpolls by at least 5% when it comes to Whites.

Now to the AL poll today:

Byrne leads Davis 52-21 among Whites. Lets assume the rest breaks like the decided did, making it about 71-29. If we apply the above rule, Davis can not expect to get more than 25% of Whites in the General Election returns.

Next, composition of the AL electorate on Election Day 2010:

In the Presidential years 2004 and 2008 the makeup was as followed:

2004: 73% White, 25% Black, 1% Latino, 1% Asian

2008: 65% White, 29% Black, 4% Latino, 2% Other

Because I think turnout will be different than in a Presidential year, it would normally see lower Back turnout. But given the fact that the first Black Governor could be elected, we might see something more in line with 2008.

So my early guess would be:

68% White
28% Black
3% Latino
1% Asian/Other

So, Davis will get 24/25% of Whites, I think we can agree that he can easily get the 98% of Blacks that Obama got. Let's also assume that 80% of "Others" will vote for him.

(68 x 0.25) + (28 x 0.98) + (4 x 0.80) = 47.64% statewide

[Tender Branson]

And how do you know he will win the GOP primary?

You spoke authoritatively that you can call this entire race for Byrne, I don't see how you're breaking down the primary for me at all here...

Because he gets the best share among Republicans and Independents ? But that could be name recognition. Ask me again in 1 year. But I wasn't talking about calling the primary for Byrne, but the General Election. Even if another Republican wins the Primary, the numbers of Davis among Whites will likely decrease due to rising name recognition of this Republican.

[Tender Branson]

Jesse Jackson rips Artur Davis on no vote

Friday, November 20, 2009
By GEORGE TALBOT
Political Editor

The Rev. Jesse Jackson ripped U.S. Rep. Artur Davis, D-Birmingham, for voting against the House health care bill, saying, "You can't vote against health care and call yourself a black man."

Jackson, speaking in Washington, D.C., at a reception for the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, did not mention Davis by name, according to a report in The Hill newspaper.

But Davis was the sole member of the caucus to vote against the Democrats' health care bill this month in the House.

Jackson, who was being honored by the caucus on the 25th anniversary of his first presidential campaign, used the occasion to blast opponents of heath care reform.

"We even have blacks voting against the health care bill," he said, according to The Hill. "You can't vote against health care and call yourself a black man."

Davis, who is running for governor in 2010, downplayed Jackson's criticism.

"One of the reasons that I like and admire Rev. Jesse Jackson is that 21 years ago, he inspired the idea that a black politician would not be judged simply as a black leader," Davis said. "The best way to honor Rev. Jackson's legacy is to decline to engage in an argument with him that begins and ends with race."

Jackson said in a statement late Thursday that he called Davis to discuss his remarks.

"I talked to (Davis) today to assure him of my abiding admiration of him as a leader who is engaged in a huge challenge," Jackson said. "I offer no challenge to his integrity as a leader. Representatives should all vote their conscience in the interest of their constituency."

Davis has said he supports efforts to reform the nation's health care system but that the bill put forward by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "is not the best we can do." He said he favors a bill proposed by the Senate Finance Committee, saying the legislation needs work but "comes closer to achieving the real reform we need."

Political observers said the rift with Jackson, a Baptist minister and civil rights activist who made unsuccessful runs as a Democratic candidate for president in 1984 and 1988, could actually help Davis in conservative Alabama.

Jackson criticized President Barack Obama on several issues during last year's presidential campaign, at one point accusing the African-American candidate of "acting like he's white."

"Obama was perfectly happy to have Jesse Jackson saying things about him — and it could be that Artur Davis feels the same way," national political commentator Gwen Ifill said by phone Thursday from Birmingham, prior to an appearance at Birmingham-Southern College.

No members of the caucus spoke up to defend Davis against Jackson's attack, but at least one — U.S. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif. — said she understood Davis' opposition to the House health care bill.

"Artur Davis has a more conservative constituency" than other caucus members, Waters told The Hill. "Since he's running for governor of Alabama, he reflects an even more conservative constituency."

http://www.al.com/news/press-register/metro.ssf?/base/news/1258712138267540.xml&coll=3

[Tender Branson]

And how do you know he will win the GOP primary?

You spoke authoritatively that you can call this entire race for Byrne, I don't see how you're breaking down the primary for me at all here...

Because he gets the best share among Republicans and Independents ? But that could be name recognition. Ask me again in 1 year. But I wasn't talking about calling the primary for Byrne, but the General Election. Even if another Republican wins the Primary, the numbers of Davis among Whites will likely decrease due to rising name recognition of this Republican.

OK, 1 year has passed, Byrne won round 1.

Even though the health-care debate started only then in June 2009 I was more or less sure that Davis would at least win the DEM primary and would vote for health care.

Let`s see how Sparks does against Byrne or the other Republican. I still see the Republican winning the GE with about 55%.

[Tender Branson]

Run-off results (100% of precincts reporting):

Robert Bentley: 260.843 votes (56.07%)
Bradley Byrne: 204.388 votes (43.93%)

Turnout was relatively high for a run-off, almost as high as in round 1.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2010/by_state/AL_Governor_0713.html