Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So completely wrong, but what else is new?

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    
WA    III    D       Murray    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    →
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    →

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    ←

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 0 Republican: 3
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    →
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    →

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R    Open    Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Florida is strong Marco Rubio now, and Alaska tilts Independent and Illinois is tossup.

[J. J.]

Feingold is a bit of a surprise.

[tmthforu94]

Florida is strong Marco Rubio now, and Alaska tilts Independent and Illinois is tossup.

Murkowski is running a write-in campaign. While she won't do terrible, and may even beat McAdams, she won't win this.

[minionofmidas]

Florida is strong Marco Rubio now, and Alaska tilts Independent and Illinois is tossup.

Murkowski is running a write-in campaign. While she won't do terrible, and may even beat McAdams, she won't win this.

She's more likely to allow McAdams to slip past Miller than to beat him for second place IMO... and that isn't particularly likely either.

Though nothing can be quite ruled out.

Republican Favored would sound about right. Especially as several other races are listed a category less safe than I might put them (on either side).

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18 

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0 
CO III D  Bennet 
NV III D  Reid 

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0 
CA III D  Boxer 
WA III D  Murray 
WV I D Open Goodwin →

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0 
CT III D Open Dodd 

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0 
DE II D Open Kaufman 

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0 
HI III D  Inouye 
MD III D  Mikulski 
NY I D  Gillibrand 
NY III D  Schumer 
OR III D  Wyden 
VT III D  Leahy 

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 2 
IL III D Open Burris 
KY III R Open Bunning 
MO III R Open Bond 
PA III D Open Specter 
WI III D  Feingold →

Lean Republican
Democrat: 0 Republican: 3 
FL III R Open Lemieux 
NH III R Open Gregg 
OH III R Open Voinovich 

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 2 
AR III D  Lincoln 
IN III D Open Bayh 
LA III R  Vitter 
NC III R  Burr 

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11 
AK III R Open Murkowski 
AL III R  Shelby 
AZ III R  McCain 
GA III R  Isakson 
IA III R  Grassley 
ID III R  Crapo 
KS III R Open Brownback 
ND III D Open Dorgan 
OK III R  Coburn 
SC III R  DeMint 
SD III R  Thune 
UT III R Open Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
WA    III    D       Murray    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    ←
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 2
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 0 Republican: 1
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 4
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    →
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    →

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R    Open    Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    →

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WA    III    D       Murray    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 3 Republican: 1
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 0 Republican: 1
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    →

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 5
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    →

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R       Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WA    III    D       Murray    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
WI    III    D       Feingold    →

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 5
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R       Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    →
WA    III    D       Murray    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 1
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 1
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 5
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R       Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
WA    III    D       Murray    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    ←

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    ←

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    ←
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    →
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 5
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 11
AK    III    R       Murkowski    
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
WA    III    D       Murray    
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 6
AK    III    R       Murkowski    ←
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 10
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[Nym90]

Total Seats in Play
Democrat: 19 Republican: 18

Pure Toss-up
Democrat: 3 Republican: 0
CO    III    D       Bennet    
NV    III    D       Reid    
WA    III    D       Murray    →

Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
WV    I    D    Open    Goodwin    

Lean Democrat
Democrat: 1 Republican: 0
CA    III    D       Boxer    

Democrat Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
CT    III    D    Open    Dodd    
DE    II    D    Open    Kaufman    

Currently Safe Democrat
Democrat: 6 Republican: 0
HI    III    D       Inouye    
MD    III    D       Mikulski    
NY    I    D       Gillibrand    
NY    III    D       Schumer    
OR    III    D       Wyden    
VT    III    D       Leahy    

Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Democrat: 2 Republican: 0
IL    III    D    Open    Burris    
PA    III    D    Open    Specter    

Lean Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 2
KY    III    R    Open    Bunning    
MO    III    R    Open    Bond    
WI    III    D       Feingold    

Republican Favored
Democrat: 2 Republican: 6
AK    III    R       Murkowski    
AR    III    D       Lincoln    
FL    III    R    Open    Lemieux    
IN    III    D    Open    Bayh    
LA    III    R       Vitter    
NC    III    R       Burr    
NH    III    R    Open    Gregg    
OH    III    R    Open    Voinovich    

Currently Safe Republican
Democrat: 1 Republican: 10
AL    III    R       Shelby    
AZ    III    R       McCain    
GA    III    R       Isakson    
IA    III    R       Grassley    
ID    III    R       Crapo    
KS    III    R    Open    Brownback    
ND    III    D    Open    Dorgan    
OK    III    R       Coburn    
SC    III    R       DeMint    
SD    III    R       Thune    
UT    III    R    Open    Bennett

[mencken]

I'm sure this will be bump worthy for humorous purposes in 22 months, but here goes:

2010 Senate Ratings

Here are our latest Senate ratings.

Lean Takeover (0 R, 0 D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 0 D)

    * Bunning (R-KY)
    * FL Open (Martinez, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (4 R, 2 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Gregg (R-NH)
    * Specter (R-PA)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Reid (D-NV)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)

Currently Safe (9 R, 13 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Burris (D-IL)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Kaufman (D-DE)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)
    * NY Open (Clinton, D)

So none of the tossup or narrow advantage seats flipped, but five of the safe seats slipped. Interesting.