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Author Topic: Hilarious predictions  (Read 5405 times)
Hashemite
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« on: January 15, 2009, 08:28:40 am »
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There is a French "scientific" predictions agency called ElectionScope, led by university profs and researchers. The problem is, their predictions are totally sh**t. In 2007 in France, they predicted Royal 28% in the first round and 23% to Sarkozy, Le Pen at 16% and Bayrou at 15%. Totally wrong order. In the French locals last year, they didn't deceive, and were as wrong as ever.

They didn't let us down for the US either.

Here was their prediction



They also did PV projections by state. For Obama, they predicted him breaking 60% in DC, MN, RI, HI, and MD. But in Illinois, they had him in the 52.5-55 range.

Arkansas was Obama 50-51.5, as was LA. KY was in the 52.5-55 Obama range, and the best was WV, 55-60 range. They had Alabama in the 50-51.5 McCain range, along with TX, SC, and CO.

http://www.electionscope.fr/?/

lol
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2009, 09:02:04 am »
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Maybe they think it's 1992?
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« Reply #2 on: January 15, 2009, 12:20:24 pm »
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I like it how they also predicted that New Jersey would move a hundred or so miles eastwards into the Atlantic and collide with part of Long Island..
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Nym90
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« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2009, 12:30:59 pm »
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I assume this was based off of historical election results only and had little or no degree of polling or more recent results taken into consideration.
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« Reply #4 on: January 15, 2009, 01:24:28 pm »
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 How does election scope make their predictions? They can't pay any attention to polls.
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« Reply #5 on: January 15, 2009, 03:08:57 pm »
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What in god's name did they do to poor new jersey
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« Reply #6 on: January 15, 2009, 04:07:48 pm »
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Maybe they think it's 1992?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #7 on: January 15, 2009, 04:22:10 pm »
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I like it how they also predicted that New Jersey would move a hundred or so miles eastwards into the Atlantic and collide with part of Long Island..

The UP seceded from Michigan, and Rhode Island disappeared.
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« Reply #8 on: January 15, 2009, 06:20:14 pm »
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Their prediction looks similar to that of Dick Morris
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« Reply #9 on: January 30, 2009, 09:18:33 pm »
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Their prediction looks similar to that of Dick Morris

DICK MORRIS PROJECTION:

STATE VOTE 00, 04 RESULT ‘08 PREDICTION
ALABAMA EV 9 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
ALASKA EV 9 B,B MCCAIN
ARIZONA EV 10 B,B MCCAIN
ARKANSAS EV 6 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
CALIFORNIA EV 55 G,K OBAMA
COLORADO EV 9 B,B TOSS UP
CONNECTICUT EV 7 G,K OBAMA
DELAWARE EV 3 G,K OBAMA
D.C. EV 3 G,K OBAMA
FLORIDA EV 27 B,B TOSS UP
GEORGIA EV 15 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
HAWAII EV 4 G,B LEAN OBAMA
IDAHO EV 4 B,B MCCAIN
ILLINOIS EV 21 G,K OBAMA
INDIANA EV 11 B,B MCCAIN
INDIANA EV 11 B,B MCCAIN
IOWA EV 7 G,B LEAN OBAMA
KANSAS EV 6 B,B MCCAIN
KENTUCKY EV 8 B,B MCCAIN
LOUISIANA EV 9 B,B MCCAIN
MAINE EV 4 G,K OBAMA
MARYLAND EV 10 G,K OBAMA
MASSACHUSETTS EV 12 G,K OBAMA
MICHIGAN EV 17 G,K LEAN OBAMA
MINNESOTA EV 10 G,K LEAN OBAMA
MISSISSIPPI EV 6 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
MISSOURI EV 11 B,B TOSS UP
MONTANA EV 3 B,B MCCAIN
NEBRASKA EV 5 B,B MCCAIN
NEVADA EV 5 B,B LEAN OBAMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE EV 4 B,K LEAN OBAMA
NEW JERSEY EV 15 G,B OBAMA
NEW MEXICO EV 5 G,B LEAN OBAMA
NEW YORK EV 31 G,B OBAMA
NORTH CAROLINA EV 15 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
NORTH DAKOTA EV 3 B,B MCCAIN
OHIO EV 20 B,B TOSS UP
OKLAHOMA EV 7 B,B MCCAIN
OREGON EV 7 G,K OBAMA
PENNSYLVANIA EV 21 G,K LEAN OBAMA
RHODE ISLAND EV 4 G,K OBAMA
SOUTH CAROLINA EV 8 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
SOUTH DAKOTA EV 3 B,B MCCAIN
TENNESSEE EV 11 B,B MCCAIN
TEXAS EV 30 B,B MCCAIN
UTAH EV 5 B,B MCCAIN
VERMONT EV 3 G,K OBAMA
VIRGINIA EV 13 B,B LEAN MCCAIN
WASHINGTON EV 11 G,K OBAMA
WEST VIRGINIA EV 5 B,B MCCAIN
WISCONSIN EV 10 G,K LEAN OBAMA
WYOMING EV 3 B,B MCCAIN


THIS IS MADNESS.
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Nixon in '80
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« Reply #10 on: January 30, 2009, 09:52:01 pm »
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I like it how they also predicted that New Jersey would move a hundred or so miles eastwards into the Atlantic and collide with part of Long Island..

I literally almost fell out of my chair.

LOL at the stupid French... as opposed to the intelligent French, for whom I have nothing but the utmost respect.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #11 on: January 30, 2009, 10:32:02 pm »
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I like it how they also predicted that New Jersey would move a hundred or so miles eastwards into the Atlantic and collide with part of Long Island..

I literally almost fell out of my chair.

LOL at the stupid French... as opposed to the intelligent French, for whom I have nothing but the utmost respect.

A serious business magazine in France (can't remember which one it was. L'Expansion I think) got them to do their "election predictions" last year for the French locals. I laughed a lot. Somebody should have gotten them to do publish an article on the US election. It would have been sheer hilarity.
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« Reply #12 on: January 30, 2009, 11:51:46 pm »
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I like it how they also predicted that New Jersey would move a hundred or so miles eastwards into the Atlantic and collide with part of Long Island..

I literally almost fell out of my chair.


LOL at the stupid French... as opposed to the intelligent French, for whom I have nothing but the utmost respect.
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« Reply #13 on: February 06, 2009, 01:02:00 pm »
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Now here's a really crazy prediction from October 23, 2008:

http://interestedamerican.blogspot.com/2008/10/electoral-college-mccain-278-obama-260.html



It was off by 'only' 114 electoral votes.

Give it some credit, though; it got Missouri and Montana right. Of course it thought that McCain/Palin would eke out narrow victories in Nevada and New Hampshire -- wrong! Whether one thinks that Obama won Virginia decisively or barely is a matter of taste.

This site had even crazier predictions earlier -- like  such states as Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania going for McCain, all of which Obama won by double-digit margins. This site must have assumed that McCain/Palin momentum in early September was going to continue.

The site recognized that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana would be close.

Criteria:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...


Apparently this fellow couldn't believe that the Democrats could make real gains between 2004 and 2008, and failed to account for the fast-growing Latino vote.

Garbage in... garbage out.

 



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Ernest
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« Reply #14 on: February 06, 2009, 02:14:21 pm »

Now here's a really crazy prediction from October 23, 2008:

Criteria:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...


Apparently this fellow couldn't believe that the Democrats could make real gains between 2004 and 2008, and failed to account for the fast-growing Latino vote.

Garbage in... garbage out.

He just grossly underestimated the amount of voter fraud, that's all. Wink
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Hashemite
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2009, 04:09:10 pm »
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Here is the said French prediction in a map form

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« Reply #16 on: February 07, 2009, 05:46:01 pm »
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Now here's a really crazy prediction from October 23, 2008:

http://interestedamerican.blogspot.com/2008/10/electoral-college-mccain-278-obama-260.html



It was off by 'only' 114 electoral votes.

Give it some credit, though; it got Missouri and Montana right. Of course it thought that McCain/Palin would eke out narrow victories in Nevada and New Hampshire -- wrong! Whether one thinks that Obama won Virginia decisively or barely is a matter of taste.

This site had even crazier predictions earlier -- like  such states as Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania going for McCain, all of which Obama won by double-digit margins. This site must have assumed that McCain/Palin momentum in early September was going to continue.

The site recognized that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Missouri, and Montana would be close.

Criteria:

Thursday, October 23, 2008
Electoral College: McCain 278, Obama 260

1. Averaging out the state by state polls.
2. Correcting rampant oversampling of Democrats
3. Factoring in which states the candidates are campaigning in.
4. Including an increased Black turnout.
5. An energized youth vote/an apathetic youth vote.
6. Voter fraud.
7. Throwing in a modest Bradley Effect...


Apparently this fellow couldn't believe that the Democrats could make real gains between 2004 and 2008, and failed to account for the fast-growing Latino vote.

Garbage in... garbage out.

 





That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.
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« Reply #17 on: February 07, 2009, 05:51:21 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?
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« Reply #18 on: February 07, 2009, 06:12:19 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Do realize who you're talking to.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #19 on: February 07, 2009, 06:18:29 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Don't underestimate me just because I am young. Our country needs to look towards it's youth. Your era had their chance, and they blew it. Now it's our turn. We have to fix the problems your generation made as well as make the must needed improvements.

Do realize who you're talking to.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2009, 06:19:47 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Sending homeless people to the streets of Pittsburgh, saying if they went out and got blacks registered, they would give them a free meal.
That is just sick.
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2009, 06:45:30 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Don't underestimate me just because I am young. Our country needs to look towards it's youth. Your era had their chance, and they blew it. Now it's our turn. We have to fix the problems your generation made as well as make the must needed improvements.

Do realize who you're talking to.

First of all, I'm only 4 years older than you are.

And my comment had nothing to do with your age, but rather the absurdity of your claim.
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« Reply #22 on: February 07, 2009, 06:56:30 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Sending homeless people to the streets of Pittsburgh, saying if they went out and got blacks registered, they would give them a free meal.
That is just sick.

Targetting certain groups of voters likely to be friendly to your politics is something both parties do.  Do I like that they target the homeless?  No.  Do I like voting targetting?  Not especially.  But this is a stupid caveat.  And, besides, the number of people registered in such drives probably did not break 10,000.  That's a ridiculously small number of votes, relatively speaking.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #23 on: February 07, 2009, 06:59:00 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Don't underestimate me just because I am young. Our country needs to look towards it's youth. Your era had their chance, and they blew it. Now it's our turn. We have to fix the problems your generation made as well as make the must needed improvements.

Do realize who you're talking to.

First of all, I'm only 4 years older than you are.

And my comment had nothing to do with your age, but rather the absurdity of your claim.

Well, then please explain your comment, "Do realize who you're talking to?" It is not "Crazy" to think that Acorn rigs elections. They register dead people. Odd enough, those dead people are almost always Democrats.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #24 on: February 07, 2009, 06:59:54 pm »
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That isn't too crazy of a prediction. If the Bradley effect had been really strong, and Acorn hadn't gotten in the way, that is a very possible map.

ACORN didn't "get in the way" of what?  Registering useless Daffy Duck registrations that would require a ridiculously orchestrated effort to cast a single vote with?

Sending homeless people to the streets of Pittsburgh, saying if they went out and got blacks registered, they would give them a free meal.
That is just sick.

Targetting certain groups of voters likely to be friendly to your politics is something both parties do.  Do I like that they target the homeless?  No.  Do I like voting targetting?  Not especially.  But this is a stupid caveat.  And, besides, the number of people registered in such drives probably did not break 10,000.  That's a ridiculously small number of votes, relatively speaking.

Look at the Florida 2000 results. If target voting hadn't happened there, who knows? Al Gore could have been president.
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