Is that caused by higher black turnout and white flight, or is Obama winning a decent amount of Memphis whites? I was under the impression that whites in Memphis were very conservative.
High black turnout was certainly a factor in 2008, but the district swung hard in 2004 as well. It's no secret that whites, who are overwhelmingly conservative Republicans, are continuing their exodus further out into TN-7 and MS-1.
Wow, TN-9 has swung to the Dems even harder than I would of thought. No doubt it will swing back to the GOP in 2012, after the district inevitably grows to include whites currently in the quickly growing suburban 7th.
That seems unlikely to me. The population of Memphis is only about 13,000 people short of being 1/9th of the state's population (Tennessee has 9 districts and probably will maintain that number for 2012-2022). I really don't know much about Tennessee politics, but just looking at the map of the current districts, I'd say the 8th district is the one most likely to absorb those suburbs around Memphis as the 7th moves towards becoming more Nashville based.
The city of Memphis lost 1.8% of population 2000-2006 (latest date the census has) while the state has gained 6%. TN-9 has to grow in area with each census to account for slow growth in the city. Now that the GOP has taken over the TN legislature, I suppose very different map that is more friendly to Republicans is fairly likely. The current map was drawn to elect 5 Dems and 4 Reps.
