Reagan vs. Clinton

[anvi]

I know, it's off the wall.  But pretend Reagan and Clinton are in their political primes in an election cycle where Reagan is the incumbant president, the Cold War has just ended due partly to Reagan's policies, but the country is in a sharp economic downturn.  Discuss with maps, please.

[Psychic Octopus]

1988 Reagan vs. Clinton in an economic downturn.

[Psychic Octopus]

Clinton could not pull off North Carolina. he couldn't in '92 and even '96.

[anvi]

Ok, here is how I see election night playing out; President Reagan up for a third term against Governor Clinton in 1988.

7-8 pm Eastern:
Indiana falls almost immediately for President Reagan, but then Clinton scores a surprising win in Vermont.  At the bottom half of the hour, South Carolina is called for the President.  Kentucky, Virginia and Florida are too close to call.  The hour ends with Reagan ahead in the electoral count, 20-3.

8-9 pm Eastern
Clinton gains momentum by immediately being declared the winner in Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, his home state of Arkansas, West Virginia, Delaware and D.C., while Reagan is declared the victor in Alabama, Oklahoma and in his New England strongholds of Maine and New Hampshire.  The President is then declared the winner in Kentucky, but no sooner does this news break then announcements come that Clinton has scored impressive victories in Illinois and then Pennsylvania.  A number of major states on the east coast along with Michigan remain too close to call, but ten minutes to the hour, Tennessee is called for the Governor.  The weak showing in the south and the exit polls have the White House worried and the crowds in Little Rock euphoric.  Voters appear discouraged by the economic downturn, the Iran-Contra scandal and increasing worries about the President's age. The hour closes with Clinton having overtaken Reagan on the electoral map, 111-54

9-10 pm Eastern:
Powerful wins for Clinton add steam to his momentum: He carries New York, Wisconsin and Minnesota along with Rhode Island immediately, while Reagan takes the paltry number of electoral votes from Kansas, the Dakotas and Wyoming.  But then, close to the half-hour mark, a razor-think victory is announced for the President in Georgia, and ten minutes later, Ohio delivers its electoral votes to him as well.  Virginia follows, and the President is buoyed by better exit polls out of these states showing worries about Clinton's foreign policy abilities and constant rumors about his infidelities.  The latter makes a big difference among New Mexico's voters, whom Clinton expects to swing based on promising October polling, but who deliver the state to Reagan.  The President is on a roll, but Clinton maintains miniscule leads in Michigan, New Jersey, Missouri and Louisiana and is just a surprising shade behind in North Carolina., which all remain too close to call.  Because of his wins in electoral-vote rich states, Clinton ends the hour maintaining his lead, 172-122.

10-11 PM Eastern:
Iowa delivers a near double-digit victory for Clinton, but Reagan triumphs by incredible margins in Nebraska, Utah and Montana and gets a modest win in Mississippi.  Dramatically, Clinton is given the nod by a one-and-a-half point margin in New Jersey, which has been hard-hit by the economic crisis.  Then Reagan scores some powerful victories that pull him back into the race, with Florida being announced first, followed by a slim three point win in North Carolina, capped off by a resounding win in Texas.  Clinton is fighting hard in Colorado and Nevada, where he has campaigned vigorously, and spirits at the state house in Little Rock are lifted when Louisiana is called for the governor late in the hour.  It is obvious by now that California will decide who will win the election, as the hour ends in a deadlocked race, Governor Clinton having 206 electoral votes and President Reagan having 205.

11-12 pm Eastern:
Clinton scores impressive wins in Washington and Hawai'i, and squeaks by with a surprise three point margin in Oregon, and Reagan answers right back with solid wins in Arizona and Idaho.  Colorado then falls to the President by a four point margin. The crowd erupts in Little Rock and the White House reacts as if it has been punched in the gut when Michigan, also hard-hit by economic times, delivers a one and a half point victory and its 20 electoral votes to the Governor.  Union turnout in Las Vegas and Reno makes the state close, but at about a quarter to, Nevada falls for the President.  The White House had been hoping for a decisive hour, but California is neck-and-neck.  Clinton's important victories on the West Coast and in Michigan maintain his electoral vote advantage, 248-229, but unless he can upset the gipper in his home state, it will all be for nothing.

12-1 am Eastern:
Alaska immediately comes in for Reagan, but nerves fray as the votes in California are counted.  Clinton makes strong showings in Los Angeles and San Francisco, but Reagan has solid numbers in the north and east and southern California may decide the race.  At 12:36 am, Clinton scores another coup with a win of less than two points in Missouri, and with only California remaining, Clinton leads 259-232.

2:14 am Eastern:
By a margin of 51-48%, Ronald Reagan hangs on to his home state and is reelected to a third term as the President of the United States, with the final electoral vote tally standing at 279-259

After one year in his third term, Reagan's health unfortunately declines, and Vice President Bush assumes the presidency in the early summer of 1990.  His impressive handlie of the Gulf War raise his numbers into the stratosphere, but the economy continues to suffer.  Clinton declares a second run, wins the nomination, and easily defeats Bush in 1992.

[Derek]

[img]https://uselectionatlas.org/TOOLS/genusmap.php?year=1988&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_p=1&type=calc&AL=2;9;6&AK=2;3;6&AZ=2;7;6&AR=1;6;4&CA=2;47;5&CO=2;8;6&CT=2;8;5&DE=2;3;5&DC=1;3;8&FL=2;21;6&GA=2;12;5&HI=1;4;4&ID=2;4;7&IL=2;24;5&IN=2;12;6&IA=2;8;5&KS=2;7;6&KY=2;9;5&LA=2;10;5&MD=1;10;4&MA=1;13;4&MI=2;20;5&MN=1;10;4&MS=2;7;6&MO=2;11;5&MT=2;4;5&NE=2;5;6&NV=2;4;6&NH=2;4;5&NJ=2;16;5&NM=2;5;5&NY=1;36;5&NC=2;13;6&ND=2;3;6&OH=2;23;5&OK=2;8;6&OR=2;7;5&PA=2;25;5&RI=1;4;4&SC=2;8;6&SD=2;3;6&TN=2;11;6&TX=2;29;6&UT=2;5;7&VT=2;

If this doesn't post:

Reagan 446
Clinton 92

Clinton wins barely in Arkansas, Rhode Island, Maryland, Hawaii, Minnesota, New York, Massachusetts. and D.C.

[Derek]

Reagan 57
Clinton 42

[Psychic Octopus]

Reagan wins.

[Bo]

Reagan would narrowly win if the economy was good (1988), Clinton would narrowly win if the economy was bad (1992).

[Derek]

That's certainly true. I was just going by the 1988 map and times. I really don't think Clinton holds a candle to Reagan in terms of Charisma or appeal though.

[Derek]

[url]]

http://

Clinton wins some close battlegrounds plus his homestate of Arkansas. I really don't think he held a candle to Reagan in speaking enough to make much of an electoral difference.

Reagan wins 58-42

[Bo]

[url=http://]]]

http://

Clinton wins some close battlegrounds plus his homestate of Arkansas. I really don't think he held a candle to Reagan in speaking enough to make much of an electoral difference.

Reagan wins 58-42

If the economy was poor, Clinton would win. Even if the economy was good, I can't see Reagan getting more than 55% (an extremely best-case scenario) against Clinton.

[Derek]

I just think that Clinton's extramarital affairs and background would've been more exposed against Reagan.

[Bo]

I just think that Clinton's extramarital affairs and background would've been more exposed against Reagan.

Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 before his affairs were exposed and/or proven. Why would they be exposed against Reagan? Besides, the only affair Clinton was proven to have was with Monica, and that was after hea already won.

[Derek]

He admitted to affairs before being elected in 1992. Conservatives would play up the moral and social issues. Also what year are we talking about? I was imagining a 1988 scenario where Clinton isn't known well and Reagan is at a 68% approval rating. After both had been president say now for example, then Reagan would win by a moderate margin like Obama.

[Bo]

He admitted to affairs before being elected in 1992. Conservatives would play up the moral and social issues. Also what year are we talking about? I was imagining a 1988 scenario where Clinton isn't known well and Reagan is at a 68% approval rating. After both had been president say now for example, then Reagan would win by a moderate margin like Obama.

I know that before 1998 there was no proof for all the affairs that Clinton allegedly had (Geniffer Flowers, Paula Jones, etc..). The first affair for whom there was evidence was in 1998 with Monica Lewinsky.

[#CriminalizeSobriety]

I just think that Clinton's extramarital affairs and background would've been more exposed against Reagan.

Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 before his affairs were exposed and/or proven. Why would they be exposed against Reagan? Besides, the only affair Clinton was proven to have was with Monica, and that was after hea already won.

Gennifer Flowers?

[Derek]

Right what I'm saying is that in 1998 he admitted to having affairs prior to his presidency. Many Americans won't vote for that. The economy does play a big factor but then the question isn't answerable. With circumstances the way they were in 1988, if Bush can go above 400, then Reagan could go above 500 even against Clinton.

[Bo]

I just think that Clinton's extramarital affairs and background would've been more exposed against Reagan.

Clinton won in 1992 and 1996 before his affairs were exposed and/or proven. Why would they be exposed against Reagan? Besides, the only affair Clinton was proven to have was with Monica, and that was after hea already won.

Gennifer Flowers?

Clinton only admitted to that affair in 1998. Before 1998 there was no proof to Flowers's allegations (and don't tell me about her conversation tapes with Clinton, because those could have been forged).

[Uncle Albert/Admiral Halsey]

I think that Reagan would have definitely been able to win in 1988 against Clinton, and while 1992 might be close due to the economy, Reagan might have been able to pull it off due to his charisma, but it'd could be very close. That being said, Reagan wouldn't have made the "no new taxes" pledge since he wouldn't have had to, so Clinton wouldn't be able to hammer him on that. Also, if we're talking about 1988, I can imagine that Lee Atwater might have been able to find enough about Clinton's affairs to hammer him on it.

[yougo1000]

Reagan 324
Clinton 214

[Derek]

Clinton knew about the Oklahoma City bombing but wasn't sofisticated enough to respond in time. The ppl at Waco were innocent but framed by the liberal media.