Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2014, 06:56:05 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | | |-+  NJ Muncipality Results finally posted
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: NJ Muncipality Results finally posted  (Read 10720 times)
ChrisFromNJ
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2748


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -8.61

View Profile
« on: January 17, 2009, 07:15:46 pm »
Ignore

http://www.njelections.org/2008_municipality_results_presidential.html
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: January 19, 2009, 02:29:06 pm »
Ignore

If you lived in an awesome county like Bergen, you would have had precinct results available since November Tongue
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: January 19, 2009, 02:31:27 pm »
Ignore

Anyway, I'm going to get started with some swing maps by municipality. Bergen first because I say so.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1805


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2009, 02:40:06 pm »
Ignore

Anyway, I'm going to get started with some swing maps by municipality.

Smiley

Just checked out Mercer, where I am, and it's pretty clear the Obama totals for Pennington and Princeton (borough, not township) are switched.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: January 19, 2009, 03:24:45 pm »
Ignore

Not enough time to do a swing map for Bergen today, but I compiled the results to do one in the future. Here's a results map by municipality to tide you over. The scale is 50-55%, 55-60, 60-65, 65-70, 70-75, 75+.



That must have been a huge swing in Woodcliff Lake, the lonely northernmost Obama town. And at least one tiny town (Rockleigh, population about 300) swung against Obama; Kerry won it, but so did McCain. The biggest regional swing to Obama appears to have been in the Northern Valley (the area NNE of the intensely Democratic towns).

That swing might be a consequence of increasing Korean migration into those towns. Except that Koreans, as evidenced by Palisades Park, apparently don't vote. Voter turnout was abysmal there, by far the lowest county-wide.

In any case, the white voters in those areas are the sort I would expect to swing to Obama anyway. More Irish and Anglo wealthy than the Italian and Eastern European wealthy you find in the northwestern reaches of the county, and living slightly closer together and with cohesive downtowns. Greater cohesion of community might also be an explanation for Ridgewood, the northern end of that Obama spike in the west, as Ridgewood is the only town in that area with a downtown area (and an extremely nice one, rivaled in the county only by my own Englewood).
« Last Edit: January 19, 2009, 03:36:06 pm by Verily »Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2009, 03:46:16 pm »
Ignore

Starting to put together the swing map now, maybe I will finish it today. Anyway, Woodcliff Lake actually wasn't a very big swing at all, it's just anomalously Democratic/not intensely Republican. No idea why.

Edit: Finished the numbers. Biggest swing to Obama was 6.73% in Ridgefield Park, followed closely by 6.39% in Bogota. Biggest swing against Obama was -15.64% in Teterboro, but bear in mind that this town had 22 voters in 2004 and 25 in 2008; not the most useful data. The biggest swing against Obama other than Teterboro was -2.32% in Wallington, followed closely by -2.29% in Carlstadt.

In total, 7 towns swung against Obama, including Teterboro. Of those, three were by less than 1%; one, tiny Rockleigh, was by 1.54%; the other three are above. Surprisingly, there is no particular geographic pattern to the towns which swung against Obama, although there is an easy explanation for all of them (except Rockleigh and Teterboro, where my explanation is tiny population size).
« Last Edit: January 19, 2009, 04:03:23 pm by Verily »Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58782
India


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2009, 05:25:20 pm »
Ignore

Where is Teterboruugh?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2009, 06:29:33 pm »
Ignore

Where is Teterboruugh?

Wikipedia's map of Teterboro's location

About 95% of the town is covered by Teterboro Airport, the primary airport for private and corporate flights from the New York City area.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2009, 06:31:58 pm by Verily »Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2009, 06:41:54 pm »
Ignore

Anyway, I'm still puzzling about Woodcliff Lake. Very wealthy town, MHI of $123,022 at the 2000 Census. Very white, 93%, with the largest minority Asian at only 4.5%, less than 1% black and only 2.5% Hispanic. No specific data, but no substantial Jewish community that I'm aware of. Overall, the demographics don't seem much different from its neighbors, although it is actually somewhat wealthier than Park Ridge (to its north) and Hillsdale (to its south).

Slight Republican registration edge, but registration means little in Bergen County, where over 60% of voters are Undeclared.

It's also home of the North American headquarters of BMW, apparently. The things Wikipedia teaches you...
« Last Edit: January 19, 2009, 06:48:07 pm by Verily »Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2009, 07:06:29 pm »
Ignore

Anyway, here's the swing map. My at-a-glance analysis was totally wrong. The strongest Obama swing was in the semi-rural/exurban area in the far northwest of the county (as opposed to the area around Woodcliff Lake/Westwood, which is somewhat more developed and swung much less strongly).

The most notable characteristic of Mahwah (the big town in the far northwest) and its neighbors is that much of the land is still forest and undeveloped, although development continues apace in those areas. Elsewhere in the county, forests are few except in parks. But the strongest swing was centered around Ridgewood, which is the most heavily developed area in that part of the county.

The scale is highly exaggerated, however; it's only 1% per shade (lightest is a <1% swing). Teterboro stands out like a sore thumb, so I should have just let Lewis wait for this map.



The towns which swung against Obama:

Rockleigh: 300 residents, statistical noise happens. Far northeast.
Teterboro: 18 residents officially in 2000 (but 25 votes), statistical noise happens. Lower center.
North Arlington: Heavily Italian, mostly white flight from Newark. Southern edge.
Fair Lawn: Heavily Russian Jewish, although not so many Orthodox as in Englewood and Teaneck. West-center.
Old Tappan: Don't have much explanation here, but it is a fairly white-ethnic town. North-center, west of Rockleigh.
Carlstadt: Heavily Italian. The eastern of the connected pair of McCain-swinging towns.
Wallington: Heavily Italian. The western of the connected pair of McCain-swinging towns.


« Last Edit: January 19, 2009, 07:18:09 pm by Verily »Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58782
India


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2009, 06:47:49 am »
Ignore

The most notable characteristic of Mahwah (the big town in the far northwest)

It's also commemorated in a Bruce Springsteen song...

Well they closed down the auto plant in Mahwah late last month... (first line of "Johnny 99")

And there's a publisher's of Catholic religious literature... Paulist Press.
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2009, 10:07:40 am »
Ignore

The most notable characteristic of Mahwah (the big town in the far northwest)

It's also commemorated in a Bruce Springsteen song...

Well they closed down the auto plant in Mahwah late last month... (first line of "Johnny 99")

And there's a publisher's of Catholic religious literature... Paulist Press.

It was also on an SNL list of the towns with the strangest-sounding names in the US maybe twenty years ago. Along with three other Bergen County towns: Teaneck, Moonachie and Ho-Ho-Kus.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #12 on: January 20, 2009, 10:13:37 am »
Ignore

Anyway, I will try to get to Hudson County this afternoon, and maybe Passaic County, too, since both have very few municipalities. (Unfortunately, Passaic County I already know ranges from >90% D in Paterson to probably at least >60% R in Ringwood. So I'll have to return to a 10% scale.)
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2009, 10:40:51 am »
Ignore

Hudson County results. Not the most exciting image. I think Secaucus (northern light red) voted for Bush in 2004, but otherwise the map is not much changed. Scale is 50-60-70-80.


Logged
only back for the worldcup
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58782
India


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: January 20, 2009, 10:48:49 am »
Ignore

60's the two western towns, right? What's the far western town, 70 or 80? (And what is it like?
Logged

"The secret to having a rewarding work-life balance is to have no life. Then it's easy to keep things balanced by doing no work." Wally



"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #15 on: January 20, 2009, 10:56:22 am »
Ignore

Turns out Secaucus did not vote for Bush, but it was closer last time. Biggest swing to Obama was 8.81% in Union City, followed by 8.08% in West New York. Heavily Hispanic both, and the second- and third-most densely populated municipalities in the country. (Guttenberg, also in Hudson, is #1.) No municipality swung against Obama, but the smallest swing to him was in Staten Island Bayonne, 1.39%, followed by 2.71% in Secaucus. Scale is the same as the Bergen County swing map, 1% per shade (starting with 1-2% for Bayonne and reaching >7% for Union City, Weehawken and West New York).



The far western town is East Newark. Should tell you all you need to know. Although it isn't heavily black, it's fairly Hispanic, about half-Hispanic, half-non-Hispanic white (but small population-wise, only a few thousand people). It's geographically small for arbitrary reasons, only covering a few blocks. 77.09% for Obama.

The other two towns around it are Harrison and Kearny (the big one), both are in the 60s. Both are also mostly white with substantial Hispanic minorities. Harrison has a substantial Asian population, too, mostly Indian IIRC. Working-class communities both, although there are some wealthy areas in Kearny. Kearny was also about 61% while Harrison was 69%, so they don't really vote similarly.

Helpful map for identifying the towns
« Last Edit: January 20, 2009, 11:06:30 am by Verily »Logged
nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8770


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: January 20, 2009, 03:07:03 pm »
Ignore

It would be interesting to find the most populated or most densely populated municipality in New Jersey that McCain carried. These appear to have the most registered voters:

Toms River   Ocean   62909
Brick   Ocean   50742
Middletown   Monmouth   48174
Lakewood   Ocean   39640
Wayne   Passaic   36386

Anyone know anything about these places, esp. Lakewood which went 2-1 for McCain.
Logged



[George W. Bush] has shattered the myth of white supremacy once and for all. -- Congressman Charles Rangel (D-NY)

"George Bush supports abstinence. Lucky Laura."
- sign seen at the March for Women's Lives, 4/25/04

Former Moderate
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13134
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2009, 04:21:16 pm »
Ignore

It would be interesting to find the most populated or most densely populated municipality in New Jersey that McCain carried. These appear to have the most registered voters:

Toms River   Ocean   62909
Brick   Ocean   50742
Middletown   Monmouth   48174
Lakewood   Ocean   39640
Wayne   Passaic   36386

Anyone know anything about these places, esp. Lakewood which went 2-1 for McCain.

That all of them are traditionally Republican areas?
Logged

memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14568


Political Matrix
E: -3.10, S: -3.83


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2009, 08:38:42 pm »
Ignore

Why does the NE have so many little municipalities? It seems really excessive.  In my county of nearly 1,000,000 people, we have 1 anchor city, 5 suburban towns, and 1 rural town.
Logged

I cannot do anything good under my own power. 
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: January 21, 2009, 12:26:13 am »
Ignore

Why does the NE have so many little municipalities? It seems really excessive.  In my county of nearly 1,000,000 people, we have 1 anchor city, 5 suburban towns, and 1 rural town.

We call it "boroughitis" in Jersey.  There was a time when the state was separated into a bunch of townships, but once population cores developed they started separating.  It's different up here because just about everywhere is very densely populated.

Boroughitis was most severe in Bergen County. So Memphis will be less disapproving when we get to the ridiculous designs in Ocean County, etc.

Generally speaking, I support relatively small municipalities for reasons I've given before, and I think the size of municipalities out west and down south (and the idea of independent county land, for that matter) causes far more problems than it solves. On the other hand, I do agree with some of the arguments against the excesses of boroughitis, and I would like to establish a new qualification that municipalities must have a coherent commercial core as well as a substantial residential area. This would leave about 30 of Bergen County's 70 municipalities qualifying, and the other 40 would be merged into them.

But the point about population density must be well-taken. Suburban Bergen County, NJ probably has a much higher population density than the city of Memphis. (Actually, just looked it up, and it does: 3,778 people per sq. mi. in Bergen, only 2,327 in Memphis.)
« Last Edit: January 21, 2009, 12:28:58 am by Verily »Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #20 on: January 21, 2009, 05:25:39 pm »
Ignore

Anyway, just to keep this updated, I'm busy for today and tomorrow but will try to get Passaic and Essex Counties done on Friday. Maybe Sussex, too, if I have time.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #21 on: January 21, 2009, 05:55:52 pm »
Ignore

Princeton Boro has McCain about 10% behind Obama and the two together total less than half the total votes cast, the vast majority of which are simply missing.  Pennington Boro also has the McCain/Obama total at well over twice the total votes cast.

I figured it out.  Obama's totals are switched for Pennington and Princeton.  So remember that, Verily!

Linus got that on the first page Smiley

Anyway, I'm going to get started with some swing maps by municipality.

Smiley

Just checked out Mercer, where I am, and it's pretty clear the Obama totals for Pennington and Princeton (borough, not township) are switched.
Logged
Gravis Marketing
brittain33
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12758


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: January 22, 2009, 02:09:38 pm »
Ignore

It would be interesting to find the most populated or most densely populated municipality in New Jersey that McCain carried. These appear to have the most registered voters:

Toms River   Ocean   62909
Brick   Ocean   50742
Middletown   Monmouth   48174
Lakewood   Ocean   39640
Wayne   Passaic   36386

Anyone know anything about these places, esp. Lakewood which went 2-1 for McCain.

Wayne has a fast-growing Russian Jewish population. I don't know how observant. Lakewood's Jewish community is Hasidic, so votes as a bloc.

Middletown is notorious as the N.J. town with the largest number of deaths on 9/11.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1805


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: January 22, 2009, 02:22:50 pm »
Ignore

Princeton Boro has McCain about 10% behind Obama and the two together total less than half the total votes cast, the vast majority of which are simply missing.  Pennington Boro also has the McCain/Obama total at well over twice the total votes cast.

I figured it out.  Obama's totals are switched for Pennington and Princeton.  So remember that, Verily!

Linus got that on the first page Smiley

Anyway, I'm going to get started with some swing maps by municipality.

Smiley

Just checked out Mercer, where I am, and it's pretty clear the Obama totals for Pennington and Princeton (borough, not township) are switched.


no worries, man Wink
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16807


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

View Profile
« Reply #24 on: January 22, 2009, 09:31:52 pm »
Ignore

Passaic County. The scale is 50-60-70-80-90. 80 is unused, however; Paterson is >90% Obama. Haledon is >60%; Passaic and Prospect Park are >70%. Clifton and West Paterson are >50%. (West Paterson just held a referendum to change its name to Woodland Park and is now Woodland Park, but wasn't at the time of the election.) The others should be unambiguous. Map quality is a bit lower because I couldn't find a blank map, but this style has the bonus of labels.



You can see the extreme polarization and population skew of the completely illogical Passaic County very well. The county voted over 60% for Obama; more than one-third of his countywide vote was in Paterson alone. Pompton Lakes and northwestward should be merged into Sussex County to make a more reasonable county.

Not so much silk left in the Silk City, but a lot of minorities. Paterson is majority Hispanic, although the black population is also substantial.
« Last Edit: January 22, 2009, 09:42:47 pm by Verily »Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines