Another 100 Pres-by-CD Results Available - 100 CDs Left (We Need Your Help!)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:35:48 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2008 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Another 100 Pres-by-CD Results Available - 100 CDs Left (We Need Your Help!)
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Another 100 Pres-by-CD Results Available - 100 CDs Left (We Need Your Help!)  (Read 2890 times)
DavidNYC
Rookie
**
Posts: 41
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: January 15, 2009, 11:38:43 PM »

Thanks to the tremendous hard work of a lot of people, the Swing State Project is proud to announce the release of another 100 districts' worth of presidential election results by CD:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4287

You can find a permalink to all the districts we've done so far (about 330) here:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

Also, we're working very hard to try to finish the final 100 CDs. The problem is that we need precinct-level data for the relevant counties (about 100 of them), and none of it appears to be available online. This means we need to start making phone calls to county Boards of Election. If you'd like to help with our project, please see this post:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4289

Thanks so much!

P.S. On a related note, I'm curious to know the status of the A2K8PPP.
Logged
Hash
Hashemite
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,401
Colombia


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2009, 09:53:56 AM »

Thank you for that. I'm currently updating a map with all your results.

Good job.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2009, 12:51:59 PM »

from your site:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

That's fine, but regarding districts such as IL-15, IL-18, IN-9, PA-12 that are so close (and have missing counties), what process do you use to predict them voting a certain way?
Logged
DavidNYC
Rookie
**
Posts: 41
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: January 19, 2009, 09:40:00 PM »

from your site:

That's fine, but regarding districts such as IL-15, IL-18, IN-9, PA-12 that are so close (and have missing counties), what process do you use to predict them voting a certain way?

For the finer details, I'll actually have to suggest that you contact Crisitunity (his e-mail is on the sidebar of the site), since he might not see a comment in the post given how old it is. I think, though, that in the case of the very tiny counties (or, more likely, the tiny bits of counties), those are simply left out rather than predicted.

So if , say, 200K people voted in a race and one part of one county accounts for 200 registered voters, that will barely show up in the tenths of a percent. Given that this cannot be a perfectly exact exercise for a number of reasons, it's probably safe only to view most of these numbers as accurate to whole percentages.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2009, 10:17:45 PM »

As an aside, does anyone here know which Texas CD's were redrawn in 2006 or 2008 (or for that matter, the 2004 pres. results for the withdrawn districts)? I'm trying to compare Texas 2008 district results with 2004.
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2009, 10:48:40 PM »

As an aside, does anyone here know which Texas CD's were redrawn in 2006 or 2008 (or for that matter, the 2004 pres. results for the withdrawn districts)? I'm trying to compare Texas 2008 district results with 2004.

I think it was TX-15, 23, 25, 27 and 28 which were redrawn by court order for the 2006 elections to the 2002 configuration. Possibly excluding TX-27.
Logged
memphis
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,959


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2009, 10:49:13 PM »

Wow, TN-9 has swung to the Dems even harder than I would of thought. No doubt it will swing back to the GOP in 2012, after the district inevitably grows to include whites currently in the quickly growing suburban 7th.
Logged
nclib
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,300
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: January 27, 2009, 10:45:18 PM »

Is that caused by higher black turnout and white flight, or is Obama winning a decent amount of Memphis whites? I was under the impression that whites in Memphis were very conservative.
Logged
Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,531
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: January 28, 2009, 04:35:29 AM »

Wow, TN-9 has swung to the Dems even harder than I would of thought. No doubt it will swing back to the GOP in 2012, after the district inevitably grows to include whites currently in the quickly growing suburban 7th.

That seems unlikely to me.  The population of Memphis is only about 13,000 people short of being 1/9th of the state's population (Tennessee has 9 districts and probably will maintain that number for 2012-2022).  I really don't know much about Tennessee politics, but just looking at the map of the current districts, I'd say the 8th district is the one most likely to absorb those suburbs around Memphis as the 7th moves towards becoming more Nashville based.
Logged
memphis
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,959


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: January 28, 2009, 10:17:17 AM »

Is that caused by higher black turnout and white flight, or is Obama winning a decent amount of Memphis whites? I was under the impression that whites in Memphis were very conservative.

High black turnout was certainly a factor in 2008, but the district swung hard in 2004 as well. It's no secret that whites, who are overwhelmingly conservative Republicans, are continuing their exodus further out into TN-7 and MS-1.


Wow, TN-9 has swung to the Dems even harder than I would of thought. No doubt it will swing back to the GOP in 2012, after the district inevitably grows to include whites currently in the quickly growing suburban 7th.

That seems unlikely to me.  The population of Memphis is only about 13,000 people short of being 1/9th of the state's population (Tennessee has 9 districts and probably will maintain that number for 2012-2022).  I really don't know much about Tennessee politics, but just looking at the map of the current districts, I'd say the 8th district is the one most likely to absorb those suburbs around Memphis as the 7th moves towards becoming more Nashville based.

The city of Memphis lost 1.8% of population 2000-2006 (latest date the census has) while the state has gained 6%. TN-9 has to grow in area with each census to account for slow growth in the city. Now that the GOP has taken over the TN legislature, I suppose very different map that is more friendly to Republicans is fairly likely. The current map was drawn to elect 5 Dems and 4 Reps.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: January 28, 2009, 10:28:07 AM »

Is that caused by higher black turnout and white flight, or is Obama winning a decent amount of Memphis whites? I was under the impression that whites in Memphis were very conservative.

High black turnout was certainly a factor in 2008, but the district swung hard in 2004 as well. It's no secret that whites, who are overwhelmingly conservative Republicans, are continuing their exodus further out into TN-7 and MS-1.


Wow, TN-9 has swung to the Dems even harder than I would of thought. No doubt it will swing back to the GOP in 2012, after the district inevitably grows to include whites currently in the quickly growing suburban 7th.

That seems unlikely to me.  The population of Memphis is only about 13,000 people short of being 1/9th of the state's population (Tennessee has 9 districts and probably will maintain that number for 2012-2022).  I really don't know much about Tennessee politics, but just looking at the map of the current districts, I'd say the 8th district is the one most likely to absorb those suburbs around Memphis as the 7th moves towards becoming more Nashville based.

The city of Memphis lost 1.8% of population 2000-2006 (latest date the census has) while the state has gained 6%. TN-9 has to grow in area with each census to account for slow growth in the city. Now that the GOP has taken over the TN legislature, I suppose very different map that is more friendly to Republicans is fairly likely. The current map was drawn to elect 5 Dems and 4 Reps.
Nope, they have 2007 as well (2008 for the state, but for comparison sake I went with 2007).

The city has lost 2.4% of its population (this is compared to the "estimate base", not the "census result" - I suppose this is due to incorporations early in the millennium that added 40k people?) Shelby County has grown 1.4% and th state has grown 6.8%. The state outside of Shelby has grown 9.5% and Shelby outside of Memphis ("estimate base" again) as grown 14.1%. The CD isn't *quite* identical to the city of Memphis, that's what threw Padfoot off here. Tanner has a bit of the northern portion of the city to make him safer.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.228 seconds with 14 queries.